According to Bank of America's monthly global fund manager survey, investors are confident the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates at least twice in the next year.
What Happened: Here's a breakdown of the findings, per Barron's:
- 84% of investors anticipate a rate cut sometime in 2024.
- 33% of respondents foresee two rate cuts in the coming year.
- 31% predict three cuts.
- 14% expect more than three reductions.
- 8% believe the Fed will maintain current rates throughout the period.
- 39% of investors predict a rate cut in September.
- 16% expect a cut in November.
- 23% foresee a cut in December.
- 6% believe a rate cut will occur as early as July.
Why It Matters: The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions significantly impact the economy, borrowing costs, interest rates and the stock market.
The Fed has maintained its benchmark policy rate in the 5.25%-5.5% range since July 2023 to counter inflationary pressures.
Its projections, released earlier this month, indicate the median forecast of all 19 U.S. central bankers was for a single interest rate cut this year.
When? Neel Kashkari, the President of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, says "toward the end of the year."
What's Next: The next Federal Open Market Committee meeting will be held July 30-31.
At last month's FOMC meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell pushed back on fears of rate hikes, deeming them as "unlikely."
Price Action: The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) was up 0.075% at last check Tuesday, while bonds, as gauged by the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) were 0.52% higher.
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