In May, retail sales in the USA almost did not grow, and were also revised down in the previous months, indicating increased pressure on consumer spending.

On Tuesday, June 18, the US Department of Commerce released retail sales data for May. The data shows that retail sales in the USA increased by 0.1% month-on-month in May, lower than the market's expectation of 0.3%, with the previous value revised down from 0% to -0.2%.

Retail sales almost universally fell short of expectations. Specifically:

Retail sales increased by 0.1% compared to the previous month, below the 0.3% expectation, with the previous value at -0.2%;

Excluding autos, retail sales decreased by -0.1% compared to the previous month, below the 0.2% expectation, with the previous value at 0.2%;

Excluding autos and natural gas, retail sales increased by 0.1% compared to the previous month, below the 0.4% expectation, with the previous value at -0.3%;

Core retail sales (excluding autos, gasoline, building materials, and food services) grew by 0.4% month-on-month, exceeding the 0.3% expectation, with the previous value at -0.5%, marking the largest decline in a year;

After being roughly adjusted for inflation, the 'actual' retail sales (non-seasonally adjusted) experienced a decline.

After the data was released, the usd fell more than 10 points in the short term to 105.40; U.S. stock index futures saw a slight increase in the short term, with the nasdaq 100 index futures' gain expanding to 0.3%. The u.s. 10-year treasury notes yield fell in the short term to 4.252%.

The biggest declines were in rbob gasoline and food service spending.

Among the 13 categories tracked by the U.S. Department of Commerce, five categories experienced decreases, with rbob gasoline and food service spending being the largest downward drivers. Gasoline prices were relatively cheaper that month, leading to a 0.4% decrease in service spending for restaurants and bars, the largest decline since January.

These data highlight a significant slowdown in consumer spending after a strong start to the year. Economists expect that due to persistent inflation, a gradually cooling job market, and signs of ongoing financial pressure, Americans will be more cautious, resulting in moderate growth in future consumption.

Consumer borrowing data released earlier this month showed that credit card balances dropped for the first time in three years due to rising household debt costs, while delinquency rates continued to rise.

Powell is 'slapped in the face' - Rate cut looming again?

Data released last week showed that both the May CPI and PPI indices in the USA were lower than expected, reinforcing the market's expectation of a possible rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, while maintaining interest rates last week, stated that consumer spending continues to grow steadily, and household sector conditions are 'quite good'.

This report may further strengthen expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve if the U.S. economy weakens.

Edited by Jeffrey