5 月单月发行专项债 6600 亿元，同比+58.9%，其中再融资债发行 2217 亿元，单月同比+58.5%，新增专项债 4383 亿元，单月同比+59.1%。根据上证报报导，6 月以来 30 个省市(含计划单列市)披露的新增专项债计划发行规模已合计约 5200 亿元。预计 6 月专项债发行将继续保持提速趋势，反映基建项目或在二季度和三季度加速落地形成实物工作量。In May, the monthly issuance of special bonds was 660 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 58.9%. Among them, the issuance of refinancing bonds was 221.7 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 58.5%, and the issuance of new special bonds was 438.3 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 59.1%.
According to a research report by Guosen Securities, construction central enterprises have advantages in undertaking major projects, with financing costs lower than the industry average, and are expected to maintain stable growth in orders and performance. With the continuous recovery of overseas orders, it is recommended to pay attention to the performance realization of international engineering leading enterprises. Industrial construction is less affected by real estate and local government debts, and is also an investment direction supported by current policies. Relevant sectors are expected to usher in valuation recovery. Semiconductor industry capital expenditures are expected to maintain a high level, and some major wafer factory projects are expected to land within the year. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunities of building clean room. Key recommended companies include China Railway Corporation Limited (601390.SH), China Railway Construction Corporation Limited (601186.SH) and Sinoma International Engineering Co. Ltd. (600970.SH).
Guosen Securities' main points are as follows:
In May, the monthly issuance of special bonds was 660 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 58.9%. Among them, the issuance of refinancing bonds was 221.7 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 58.5%, and the issuance of new special bonds was 438.3 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 59.1%. According to a report by Shanghai Securities News, as of June, the planned issuance scale of new special bonds disclosed by 30 provinces and cities (including planned municipalities) has totaled about 520 billion yuan. It is expected that the issuance of special bonds will continue to maintain a trend of increasing speed in June, reflecting the acceleration of physical workload formation of infrastructure projects in the second and third quarters.
From January to May 2024, the total fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) in the country reached 18.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.0%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.2 percentage points. Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas and water) increased by 5.7% year-on-year, a month-on-month decrease of 5.7 percentage points, while manufacturing investment increased by 9.6% year-on-year, a month-on-month decrease of 0.1 percentage points. Among the three sub-items of infrastructure investment, investment in electricity, heat, gas and water increased by 23.7% year-on-year, a month-on-month decrease of 2.5 percentage points, transportation and warehousing investment increased by 7.1% year-on-year, a month-on-month decrease of 1.1 percentage points, water conservancy investment increased by 18.5% year-on-year, a month-on-month acceleration of 2.4 percentage points, and public utility investment decreased by 5.5% year-on-year, a month-on-month decrease of 1.0 percentage points. Fixed asset investment and infrastructure investment have slowed down significantly month-on-month, while water conservancy investment maintains a high growth rate, and municipal public utility investment is more affected by local debt.
Risk warning:
Downside risks to macroeconomic growth, risks of policies being implemented below expectations, and risks of major project progress lagging behind expectations.