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US stocks preview: Three major indexes weakly oscillate due to "terrifying data" falling short of expectations; Goldman Sachs and the Fed "sing against each other": interest rates will be lowered twice this year.

Futu News · Jun 18 20:37

全球宏观

周二盘前，“恐怖数据”不及预期，美股三大期指弱势震荡

美国5月零售销售月率为0.1%，预计为0.3%，前值为0%。

高盛与FED“唱反调”：年内仍将降息2次

上周，美联储在6月议息会议上将年内降息预期降至1次。不过，高盛集团的经济学家好像并不“买账”，仍然预计美联储年内将降息2次。包括Jan Hatzius在内的经济学家在最新报告中写道，尽管美联储上周的预测“出人意料地强硬”，但“我们对（9月和12月）两次降息的预测感到满意。”

经济学家：美联储“首降”时点最重要，幅度不重要

安联首席经济顾问El-Erian认为，在当前环境下，首次降息的时机，对于判断整个降息周期的累计幅度和经济状况至关重要。他表示，首次降息能使得市场能更有信心对整个降息周期定价，但当前美联储过于依赖数据的做法缺乏政策锚点，使固定收益市场失去重要的导向作用。

华尔街唯一“大熊”仍在坚守：小摩相信美股年内将回调23%！

小摩首席市场策略师Marko Kolanovic预计2024年底标普500指数的目标位为4200点，这意味着该指数可能较当前水平下跌23%，这也是华尔街的最低目标位。他在报告中写道，“我们的谨慎立场是基于我们的观点，即没有重新调整的上行空间，任何上行空间都必须来自盈利增长。但我们认为即使在最好的情况下，盈利增长也不足以承担股票风险。”

橡树资本马克斯：经济刺激政策和制造业回流令其受益

橡树资本联席创始人兼联席董事长霍华德·马克斯认为，拜登政府的经济刺激政策和制造业回流是美国经济近期表现强劲的主要原因，而美国经济的韧性又始终影响美联储决策和美股市场表现。此外，“逆全球化”趋势导致的制造业回流也帮助了美国经济保持强劲。

华尔街资深人士：美国经济正步入企业破产周期

市场研究机构QI Research的首席执行官Danielle DiMartino Booth近日指出，一波大规模破产浪潮即将冲击美国经济，这可能会导致越来越多的美国人失业。她指出，过去一年里，美国企业破产数量攀升，表明不少企业在利率上升和金融环境收紧的情况下举步维艰。

热点要闻

芯片股盘前普涨

博通市值升至美国第八！华尔街盛赞：这是除英伟达外最佳AI股票

$博通 (AVGO.US)$隔夜市值两年多来首次超越$礼来 (LLY.US)$，成为了美国市值第八高的公司。Piper Sandler的分析师Harsh Kumar写道，“我们持续认为博通是除了$英伟达 (NVDA.US)$以外最好的人工智能题材股，因为该公司在ASIC芯片领域中占据强有力位置，且有着强大的软件组合。”截至发稿，博通盘前涨超2%，开盘或再创新高。

华尔街最乐观预期：英伟达还能再涨22%

萨斯奎汉纳银行分析师Chris Rolland在近期发布的报告中，将$英伟达 (NVDA.US)$的目标股价从145美元上调至160美元，新的目标价格较周一收盘价有22%的上涨空间，远期市盈率51.5倍。截至发稿，英伟达盘前涨近1%。

马斯克规划特斯拉宏图计划第四篇章

时隔一年多，马斯克又在规划$特斯拉 (TSLA.US)$秘密宏图计划的第四篇章了。继第一、二和三部分之后，马斯克在X平台上表示，特斯拉秘密宏图计划的第四部分正在制定。他还表示，这一定会是史诗级的计划，但却并未透露更多的内容。

推出才15个月就意外喊停！苹果宣布将终止“先买后付”服务

在美国推出“先买后付”服务一年多时间之后，$苹果 (AAPL.US)$周一突然宣布将终止该项服务。这家全球科技巨头表示，它正在转向通过第三方信用卡和借记卡提供的一项新的分期付款贷款服务。对此，一些业内人士表示，苹果最新的举措标志着这家iPhone制造商，对成为传统金融服务提供商的雄心出现了退缩。

摩根大通：涨价后，台积电毛利率将升至50-60%

在最新发布的一份研报中，摩根大通显著提高了对$台积电 (TSM.US)$未来几年的每股收益预期，将公司台股目标价从980新台币上调至1080新台币。报告指出，随着产品组合的优化（N3E占比提高）和N3产量的提升，预计台积电的毛利率将在2025年下半年至2026年上半年上涨，达到50%至60%的水平。

巴菲特再度加仓西方石油，持股比例约29%

巴菲特旗下$伯克希尔-A (BRK.A.US)$/$伯克希尔-B (BRK.B.US)$最近几天购买了更多$西方石油 (OXY.US)$的股票，目前持有这家能源公司约29%的股份，价值约154亿美元。根据当地时间周一晚些时候提交给美国证券交易委员会（SEC）的文件，伯克希尔在6月13日、14日和17日以约1.73亿美元的价格购买了290万股西方石油股票。

聚焦中概股

热门中概股盘前普跌

美股盘前成交额TOP20

美股宏观事历提醒

（以下均为北京时间）

21:15 美国5月工业产出月率

22:00 美国4月商业库存月率/2024年FOMC票委、里奇蒙德联储主席巴尔金就美国经济和货币政策发表讲话

23:40 2025年FOMC票委、波士顿联储主席柯林斯发表讲话

次日凌晨01:00 2026年FOMC票委、达拉斯联储主席洛根参与一场问答/美联储理事库格勒发表讲话

次日凌晨01:20 2025年FOMC票委、圣路易联储主席穆萨莱姆发表讲话

次日凌晨02:00 2025年FOMC票委、芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比发表讲话

次日凌晨04:30 美国至6月14日当周API原油库存（万桶）

编辑/tolk

Global macro

On Tuesday before the market opened, the three major futures indexes of the US stocks weakened and oscillated.

The retail sales growth rate of the USA in May was 0.1%, expected to be 0.3%, and the previous value was 0%.

Goldman Sachs and the Federal Reserve are singing a different tune: they will still cut interest rates twice in the year.

Last week, the Federal Reserve lowered its expectations for interest rate cuts to one time this year at its June policy meeting. However, economists at Goldman Sachs apparently do not "buy in", and still expect two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. Economists, including Jan Hatzius, wrote in their latest report, "Despite the Fed's surprisingly tough forecast last week, we are satisfied with our forecast for two rate cuts in September and December."

Economists: The timing of the Fed's "first cut" is most important, not the amplitude.

Mohamed El-Erian, Chief Economic Advisor at Allianz, believes that the timing of the first rate cut is crucial for judging the cumulative amplitude of the entire rate cut cycle and the economic situation. He said that the first rate cut can make the market more confident in pricing the entire rate cut cycle, but the Fed's current practice of relying too much on data lacks policy anchor, which makes the fixed income market lose important guiding role.

The only "big bear" on Wall Street is still holding his ground: Morgan Stanley believes that the US stocks will fall 23% this year!

Marko Kolanovic, chief market strategist at Morgan Stanley, expects the target price of the S&P 500 index to be 4,200 points at the end of 2024, which means that the index may fall by 23% below the current level, which is also the lowest target on Wall Street. He wrote in the report, "Our cautious stance is based on our view that there is no readjusted upside space, and any upside space must come from profit growth. But we believe that even in the best case, earnings growth is not enough to bear the risks of stocks."

Oaktree Capital Max: Economic stimulus policies and industrial reshoring benefit it.

Howard Marks, co-founder and co-chairman of Oaktree Capital, believes that the economic stimulus policy of the Biden administration and the reshoring of the manufacturing industry are the main reasons for the recent strong performance of the US economy, and the resilience of the US economy has always affected the decision-making of the Federal Reserve and the performance of the US stock market. In addition, the reshoring of the manufacturing industry caused by the trend of "reverse globalization" has also helped the US economy remain strong.

Veteran on Wall Street: The US economy is entering a corporate bankruptcy cycle.

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of market research firm QI Research, recently pointed out that a wave of large-scale bankruptcy is about to hit the US economy, which may cause more and more Americans to lose their jobs. She pointed out that in the past year, the number of bankruptcies in American companies has been rising, indicating that many companies are struggling in the face of rising interest rates and a tightening financial environment.

Hot news

Chip stocks rose across the board before the market opened.

Broadcom's market cap has risen to eighth in the United States! Wall Street touted it as the best AI stock after Nvidia.

$Broadcom (AVGO.US)$ exceeds it for the first time in over two years and has become the eighth largest company in the United States. Piper Sandler analyst Harsh Kumar wrote, "We continue to believe that Broadcom is the second best AI theme stock outside of Nvidia. The company occupies a strong position in the ASIC chip field and has a strong software portfolio." As of the submission, Broadcom rose more than 2% before the market opened and may hit a new high at the opening. $Eli Lilly and Co (LLY.US)$ $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$The most optimistic prediction on Wall Street: Nvidia can still rise by 22%.

Chris Rolland, an analyst at Susquehanna Bank, raised the target stock price of Nvidia from $145 to $160 in a recent report. The new target price has a 22% upside potential compared to Monday's closing price and a forward P/E ratio of 51.5 times. As of the submission, Nvidia rose nearly 1% before the market opened.

Musk plans the fourth chapter of the Tesla grand plan.$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$After the first, second and third parts, Musk stated on the X platform that the fourth part of the Tesla grand plan is being formulated. He also said that this must be an epic plan, but did not disclose more.

Musk plans the fourth chapter of Tesla's grand plan.

After more than a year, Musk is planning the fourth chapter of the secret master plan.$Tesla (TSLA.US)$

Apple announced the termination of its 'buy now, pay later' service just 15 months after its launch unexpectedly stopped.

After more than a year of launching the "buy now, pay later" service in the United States, Apple suddenly announced on Monday that it will terminate the service. The global technology giant said it is shifting to a new installment loan service provided through third-party credit and debit cards. Some industry insiders say the tech company's latest move signals a retreat from its ambition to become a traditional financial services provider.$Apple (AAPL.US)$Morgan Stanley: After raising prices, Taiwan Semiconductor's gross margin will rise to 50-60%. In the latest research report, Morgan Stanley significantly raised its earnings per share expectations for the next few years, and raised the company's target price of Taiwan stocks from NT$980 to NT$1080. The report pointed out that with the optimization of product mix (N3E ratio increase) and the increase in N3 production, Taiwan Semiconductor's gross margin is expected to rise in the second half of 2025 to the first half of 2026, reaching 50% to 60%.

Buffett again increased its position in Occidental Petroleum, holding approximately 29% of the company's stocks, worth about US$15.4 billion. According to a document submitted to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) later on Monday, Berkshire Hathaway purchased 2.9 million shares of Occidental Petroleum for approximately US$173 million on June 13, 14 and 17.

In the latest research report, JPMorgan significantly raised its target price$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$Morgan Stanley: After raising prices, Taiwan Semiconductor's gross margin will rise to 50-60%. In the latest research report, Morgan Stanley significantly raised its earnings per share expectations for the next few years, and raised the company's target price of Taiwan stocks from NT$980 to NT$1080. The report pointed out that with the optimization of product mix (N3E ratio increase) and the increase in N3 production, Taiwan Semiconductor's gross margin is expected to rise in the second half of 2025 to the first half of 2026, reaching 50% to 60%.

Buffett again increased its position in Occidental Petroleum, holding approximately 29% of the company's stocks, worth about US$15.4 billion.

Berkshire Hathaway, owned by Buffett$Berkshire Hathaway-A (BRK.A.US)$/$Berkshire Hathaway-B (BRK.B.US)$Recently purchased more$Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US)$Buffett again increased its position in Occidental Petroleum, holding approximately 29% of the company's stocks, worth about US$15.4 billion. According to a document submitted to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) later on Monday, Berkshire Hathaway purchased 2.9 million shares of Occidental Petroleum for approximately US$173 million on June 13, 14 and 17.

Not to be outdone, after NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun announced the latest AI chip iteration schedule on the evening of June 2nd, AMD CEO Su Zifeng also threw out an iteration roadmap during her speech on the morning of June 3rd before the COMPUTEX opened. The company will launch the MI325 X and Ryzen AI300 this year, the MI350 series in 2025, and the MI400 series in 2026.

China concept stocks fell before market.

Bilibili rose more than 3% pre-market trading and was upgraded to "buy" by UBS, which raised its EPS estimate per share.

Reminder for US Macro Events

(All in Peking Time)

21:15 US Industrial Production MoM for May

22:00 US Business Inventory MoM for April / 2024 FOMC Voting Member, Richmond Fed President Barkin speaks on the US economy and monetary policy

23:40 2025 FOMC Voting Member, Boston Fed President Rosengren speaks

01:00 Next day 2026 FOMC Voting Member, Dallas Fed President Kaplan participates in a Q&A / Fed Board Governor Quarles speaks

01:20 Next day 2025 FOMC Voting Member, St. Louis Fed President Bullard speaks

02:00 Next day 2025 FOMC Voting Member, Chicago Fed President Evans speaks

04:30 US API Crude Oil Stock Change for the week ending on June 14th

Editor/tolk

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