Fujishoji Research Memo (6): Possibility of Activating Demand for Pachinko Gaming Machines with Introduction of Lucky Trigger Equipped Machines and Internal Regulation Changes (1)

Fisco Japan · Jun 18 17:05

■藤商事＜6257＞の今後の見通し

1. 業界動向と市場シェア

(1) 業界動向

レジャーの多様化や規制強化などの環境変化を背景に、パチンコホール業界はここ数年、縮小傾向が続いてきた。特に2020年以降は新型コロナウイルス感染症拡大（以下、コロナ禍）という逆風が吹き、外部環境が一段と厳しくなるなかで経営体力のない企業の撤退が進んでいる。警察庁発表の資料によると2023年末のホール軒数は7,083軒、前年末比で7.6%減となった。ホール軒数の減少に伴い遊技機の設置台数も年々減少傾向にあり、2023年末でパチンコ遊技機は同5.8%減の207万台、パチスロ遊技機は同0.8%減の134万台となり、それぞれコロナ禍前の2019年末と比較すると20%弱減少したことになる（年率換算では5%減）。2023年のパチスロ遊技機の減少率が微減に留まったのは、スマスロでヒット機種が相次いだため、店舗でパチンコ遊技機の設置台数を減らしてパチスロ遊技機を増設する動きが出たためだ。実際、同社の推計によれば2023年度の市場販売台数は、パチンコ遊技機が前年度比22.5%減の81.8万台と減少したのに対し、パチスロ遊技機は同8.5%増の75.7万台と2年連続で増加した。

2024年の業界環境については、ホール軒数の減少傾向が続くことに加えて、2024年7月から発行される新紙幣に対応するための設備投資がホール側で必要となるため、遊技機の購入需要はそのぶん抑制される可能性があり、全体的には楽観視できない状況にある。一方で、パチンコ遊技機では、2024年3月より導入されたラッキートリガー搭載機でヒット機種が出ており、2024年7月からはスマパチ機のラッキートリガーについて内規変更される方向にあるようで、これを契機にパチンコ遊技機でヒット機種が登場すれば需要が喚起される可能性がある。こうしたことから、同社では2024年度の市場見通しについて、パチンコ遊技機は前年度比10%増の90万台、パチスロ遊技機は同0.9%減の75万台と見ている。そのほか上場する同業大手3社（セガサミーホールディングス＜6460＞、SANKYO＜6417＞、平和＜6412＞）の業界見通しについて見ると、パチンコ遊技機は前期比6〜10%減と3社ともマイナス成長で見ているのに対して、パチスロ遊技機は4%減から11%増と見方が分かれている。現状は稼働率の高いパチスロ遊技機の需要が旺盛なことから、パチンコ遊技機について厳しく見ていると考えられる。いずれにしても、集客力の高いヒット機種が生まれるかどうかがが、需要を左右するポイントであることに変わりない。

経済産業省が発表している「特定サービス産業動態統計調査」によると、2024年1～3月のパチンコホール売上高※は前年同期比7.3%増となり2022年4～6月にプラスに転じて以降、8四半期連続のプラス成長となった。年度で見ると7.4%増と3年連続のプラス成長となり、コロナ禍前の水準と比較するとまだ85%程度の水準に留まっているが、既存店ベースでは回復傾向にある。コロナ禍の収束やスマスロ機でヒット機種が登場したことにより客足が戻り始めているのが要因だ。実際、パチンコホール店舗数で国内トップのダイナムジャパンホールディングスのパチンコ事業の業績を見ても、2023年度の営業収入はパチスロ遊技機の増台や稼働率上昇を主因として前期比11.2%増と3期連続の増収となった。業界全体の市場規模は店舗数の減少により低迷が続くなかで、大手企業の寡占化が進んでいる状況だと考えられる。遊技機メーカーにとっても同様のことが言え、市場規模全体が回復しなくてもシェア拡大によって同社が成長する余地は十分にあると弊社では見ている。

※調査対象となっている店舗数は2024年3月時点で1,117店舗と業界全体の約16%を占めている。

(2) スマート遊技機（スマートパチンコ/スマートパチスロ）について

スマート遊技機と従来の遊技機との大きな違いは、スマパチについては玉が封入され循環式となったこと、スマスロはメダルレスとなったことが挙げられる。ともに遊技に必要な物理的な玉やメダルの貸出がなく、電子情報を元に遊技ができるため、感染防止対策になるほかプレイがしやすく不正防止対策にもなるなどメリットが多い。

ホール運営側は初期導入コストが掛かるものの、出玉やメダルの持ち運び、計数管理など店舗スタッフの業務が減少することで人件費の抑制につながる。また玉やメダルの補給装置が不要となるため省スペース化が図れるほか、店舗レイアウトも自由度が増すといったメリットがある。初期投資は掛かるが、ローコストオペレーションが可能となるため、スマート遊技機専門店舗が増えていく可能性もある。

メーカー側にとっては、スマート遊技機で魅力的な新機種を開発しシェアを拡大できる好機となる。スマパチに関しては、従来機種と比較して集客力に違いの出るような規制緩和がなくヒット機種もほとんど生まれなかったため、2024年3月末時点の導入率は業界全体で4%弱に留まったもようだ。しかし、今後もスマパチの導入が促進されるような内規変更が進むことで導入率は上昇していくものと弊社では見ている。一方、スマスロについては有利区間の最大遊技数※1が撤廃され、どの段階からも大当たりが期待できるようになったほか、出玉性能も従来は大当たり開始からの増加2,400枚が上限であったが、差枚で2,400枚が上限となり※2、これらを生かした新機種のヒットが相次いだことで、導入率も2024年3月末時点で30%台に上昇したと見られる。今後についてもヒット機種の動向次第だが、徐々に導入率も上昇していくものと予想される。

※1 有利区間の最大遊技数は、現行の6.5号機までは有利区間の上限が連続4,000ゲームとなっており、最大遊技数に到達した場合に初期化され非有利区間（通常区間）に戻る。

※2 その日の台の収支がマイナス1,000枚だった場合、上限は3,400枚となる計算で、今まで以上に多くのメダルを獲得できるようになる（差枚方式については現行の6.5号機から採用）。

なお、スマート遊技機導入の目的の1つとして、業界の健全化につながるという点が挙げられる。各遊技機の出玉情報等を新たに設置された第三者機関の「遊技機情報センター」で一元管理することで、のめり込み対策や不正防止対策を行う体制を構築している。業界の健全化が進めば、客層の広がりにも期待が持てるようになる。当初は2～4年で大半がスマート遊技機に置き換わるものと想定していたが、パチンコホール事業者の経営状況が厳しく投資余力が限られるなかで、導入スピードは当初の想定よりも緩やかになるとの見方が増えている。

（執筆：フィスコ客員アナリスト　佐藤　譲）

Outlook for Futushoji (6257)

1. Industry trends and market share

(1) Industry trends

In the background of environmental changes such as diversification of leisure and strengthened regulations, the pachinko hall industry has been shrinking in recent years. Specifically, in 2020 and beyond, against the backdrop of the coronavirus pandemic, the external environment has become even more severe, and companies with weak financial standing have been withdrawing. According to data released by the National Police Agency, the number of halls at the end of 2023 decreased by 7.6% compared to the end of the previous year to 7,083. With the decrease in the number of halls, the number of installed game equipment is also decreasing year by year, with the number of pachinko game machines expected to decrease by 5.8% to 2.07 million units and the number of pachislot game machines expected to decrease by 0.8% to 1.34 million units by the end of 2023, which is a decrease of less than 20% compared to the end of 2019 before the coronavirus crisis (converted to an annual rate, a decrease of 5%). The reason for the slight decrease in the decrease rate of pachislot gaming machines in 2023 was because hit models were introduced one after another with smart slot machines, and there was a move to reduce the number of pachinko gaming machines installed in stores and to increase the number of pachislot gaming machines. In fact, the company estimates that the market sales for 2023, pachinko gaming machines decreased by 22.5% compared to the previous year to 818,000 units, and pachislot gaming machines increased by 8.5% to 757,000 units for the second consecutive year.

Regarding the industry environment in 2024, in addition to the continuing trend of decreasing the number of halls, investment in equipment to support the new banknotes to be issued from July 2024 will be required by the halls, so demand for the purchase of gaming machines may be suppressed to that extent, and the overall situation cannot be optimistic. On the other hand, in the pachinko gaming machine market, hit models are emerging with the introduction of the lucky trigger-equipped machines from March 2024, and it is expected that in July 2024 there will be a change in the internal regulations of smart pachinko machines regarding the lucky trigger, which may stimulate demand if hit models emerge in the pachinko gaming machine market. For these reasons, the company forecasts that the market for pachinko gaming machines in fiscal 2024 will increase by 10% to 900,000 units compared to the previous year, and that the market for pachislot gaming machines will decrease by 0.9% to 750,000 units. Looking at the industry outlook of the top 3 listed companies in the same industry (Sega Sammy Holdings (6460), SANKYO (6417), and Heiwa (6412)), they all see a decrease in pachinko gaming machines compared to the previous period, ranging from 6 to 10%, while the outlook for pachislot gaming machines ranges from a decrease of 4% to an increase of 11%. Currently, it is considered that the demand for highly operational pachislot gaming machines is strong, and therefore the outlook for pachinko gaming machines is expected to be strict. In any case, it is still essential that a hit game with high customer appeal is released, as this will significantly impact demand.

According to the Special Service Industry Dynamics Survey released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, the sales revenue of pachinko halls in the first quarter of 2024 increased by 7.3% compared to the same period of the previous year, turning positive in the April-June 2022 period and continuing to grow positively for eight consecutive quarters since then. In terms of the entire fiscal year, it has grown by 7.4% for three consecutive years, and it remains at around 85% of the pre-coronavirus level, but there is a trend of recovery at existing stores due to factors such as the end of the coronavirus crisis and the emergence of hit models with smart slot machines. In fact, looking at the performance of the pachinko business of DynaMale Japan Holdings, the top domestic chain of pachinko halls, the operating revenue for fiscal 2023 increased by 11.2% year on year, mainly due to the increase in pachislot gaming machines and the increase in operational rates. It is considered that the market size as a whole is continuing to stagnate due to the decrease in the number of stores, and the situation is becoming monopolized by major companies. The same can be said for game machine manufacturers, and we believe that there is still sufficient room for the company to grow by expanding its share even if the overall market size does not recover.

※The number of stores surveyed is about 16% of the entire industry as of March 2024.

(2) About smart gaming machines (smart pachinko / smart pachislot)

The major difference between smart gaming machines and conventional gaming machines is that smart pachinko involves circulating balls that are enclosed and Smart Slot is medal-less. Both have many merits such as prevention of infection and ease of play as there is no lending of physical balls or medals required to play, and the game can be played based on electronic information, which also serves as a measure against fraud.

Although the initial introduction cost for the hall operation side is high, the reduction of the staff's work such as carrying and managing balls and medals leads to the restraint of labor costs. In addition, it can save space because it does not require a ball or medal supply device, and there are benefits such as increasing the freedom of store layout. Although there is a initial investment cost, it may increase the number of smart game machine specialty stores because low-cost operations are possible.

For the manufacturers, it is a good opportunity to develop attractive new models with smart game machines and expand their shares. As for Sumapachi, there was no regulatory relaxation that would make a difference in attracting customers compared to conventional models, and there were hardly any hit models. Therefore, the introduction rate as of the end of March 2024 remained just under 4% in the industry as a whole. However, we believe that the internal regulations for promoting the introduction of Sumapachi will continue to evolve, leading to an increase in the introduction rate. On the other hand, as for Sumasuro, the maximum number of advantageous play areas *1 has been abolished, and it is now possible to expect a big hit at any stage, and the performance of the ball has improved. While the upper limit used to be an increase of 2,400 medals from the start of a big hit, it has now become 2,400 medals in the difference *2, and the introduction rate is expected to gradually increase depending on the trends of hit models in the future.

*1 The maximum number of advantageous play areas is set so that the upper limit of the advantageous area is 4,000 games in a row for the current 6.5th model, and if the maximum number of games is reached, it will be initialized and returned to the non-advantageous area (normal area).

*2 If the daily balance of the machine is minus 1,000 medals, the upper limit is calculated to be 3,400 medals, and you can acquire more medals than before (this is adopted from the 6.5th model for the difference method).

One of the purposes of introducing smart game machines is to promote soundness in the industry. By centrally managing the payout information for each game machine and other information in the newly established third-party organization 'Game Machine Information Center', we are building a system to prevent addiction and prevent fraudulent activities. If the industry is sound, we can expect the customer base to broaden. Initially, it was assumed that most would be replaced by smart game machines in 2-4 years, but there is an increasing view that the introduction speed will be slower than initially expected due to the difficult management situation and limited investment capacity of pachinko hall operators.

(Written by FISCO guest analyst, Jo Sato)

The translation is provided by third-party software.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.

藤商事 Research Memo（6）：ラッキートリガー搭載機導入と内規変更でパチンコ遊技機の需要活性化の可能性（1）

Fujishoji Research Memo (6): Possibility of Activating Demand for Pachinko Gaming Machines with Introduction of Lucky Trigger Equipped Machines and Internal Regulation Changes (1)

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