Source: Glonui.
The Big Short called it the "biggest bubble in history"!
After more than a year, Musk is planning the fourth chapter of the secret master plan.$Tesla (TSLA.US)$The secret master plan continues with its fourth chapter.
After the first, second and third parts, Musk stated on X platform on Tuesday that the fourth part of Tesla's secret master plan is being developed.
He also said that this will definitely be an epic plan, but did not disclose more details.
Musk's overall plan for Tesla has always been the company's guiding principle.
From its inception to now, Tesla's secret master plan has proposed three chapters in the past 18 years.
Tesla's overall plan for the first part- August 2, 2006
Tesla's overall plan for the second part- July 20, 2016
Tesla's overall plan for the third part- April 5, 2023
So far, each overall plan has outlined some business plans aimed at promoting sustainable transportation, home and commercial energy storage products, and deploying larger-scale grid-scale batteries and other renewable energy solutions.
Now, Tesla has achieved most of the goals listed in the first two overall plans.
Tesla's secret master plan progress
In 2006, Musk wrote the initial 'Tesla Secret Master Plan', which outlined four steps:
1. Make a sports car;
2. Use the money to make an affordable car;
3. Use the money to make a cheaper car;
4. At the same time, provide zero-emission power generation options.
Although the process was not smooth, Tesla has basically achieved these goals through the Roadster, Model S, and Model 3.
Ten years later, Musk proposed 'Tesla Master Plan Part Deux' in 2016.
In Part II, Musk emphasized that the newly established Tesla Energy department will combine energy storage with renewable energy generation.
The plan also announced the creation of solar roof, with a focus on autonomous driving function, which has become Tesla's top priority. The summary of Part II also consists of four steps:
1. Building solar roofs with seamless integrated battery storage;
2. Expand the electric vehicle product line to meet the needs of all major market segments;
3. Develop autonomous driving capabilities that are 10 times safer than manual driving through large-scale fleet learning;
4. Let your car make money for you when you're not using it.
In addition, regarding the automotive product section, Musk mentioned in the plan a "new type of pickup truck" (Cybertruck), a compact SUV (Model Y), a "heavy-duty truck (Tesla Semi), and finally "high passenger density urban transportation."
From the results, all car models announced in the plan have now been unveiled, and most of the models have been put into production except for "high passenger density urban transportation."
However, it is worth noting that the third and fourth items in the second master plan have not yet been fully realized.
On April 5th of last year, the third chapter of the master plan was officially announced, with even grander goals than the previous two.
Part III is about expanding the size of the automotive and energy businesses to accelerate the overall economy's transformation to sustainable development.
This includes plans to achieve 240 TWh of energy storage, 30 TW of renewable power, $10 trillion in manufacturing investments, and use 0.21% of land area to achieve 10% of global GDP, and so on.
Specifically, the secret Master Plan Part III can be broken down into five core aspects:
1. Fully shift to electric vehicles;
2. Use heat pumps in residential, commercial, and industrial sectors;
3. Use high-temperature energy storage and green hydrogen in industrial sector.
4. Apply sustainable energy to aircraft and ships; 5. Drive existing power grids with renewable energy.
Based on unfinished parts of sections 2 and 3, Musk seems to be in a bit of a hurry with his fourth section.
However, the market speculates that the fourth part of the Grand Plan may involve self-driving cars and robots.
However, Morgan Stanley analyst Ryan Brinkman believes that Tesla's Robotaxi business is unlikely to be profitable in the short term.
Wall Street is seriously divided.
Last week, Tesla's annual shareholder meeting was held.
Regarding the robots, Musk pointed out that the humanoid robot market will be huge, and Optimus has a future market value of 25 trillion US dollars.
Tesla will begin "limited production" of Optimus robots in 2025. He predicts that the company will have "over a thousand or thousands of towering pillar robots working at Tesla" next year.
Tesla's goal is to produce one billion units annually and hold a market share of over 10%.
In terms of self-driving, Musk said that Tesla will be much safer than human drivers, and the company's self-driving cars will be similar to Airbnb and Uber.
However, JP Morgan analyst Ryan Brinkman said that Tesla's Robotaxi (self-driving taxi) business is difficult to be profitable in the short term.
At the meeting, Musk also said that Tesla is not only opening a new chapter, but also "writing a new book."
He ambitiously claimed that Tesla's market cap will increase tenfold in five years, and has the potential to grow to ten times the market cap of the current highest valued company.
Currently, Microsoft, which ranks first in the market value of US stocks, has a market cap of 3.3 trillion dollars.
That means Musk believes Tesla's future market cap will exceed 33 trillion US dollars.
This year, Tesla's overall performance is still weak, and its stock price has fallen nearly 25% so far.
There is a serious divergence in Wall Street's view of Tesla.
Per Lekander, a well-known hedge fund manager, recently warned that Tesla's stock price is overvalued and may soon face a significant pullback.
In his view, Tesla is in a bubble and that the stock is overvalued. Earlier this year, he warned that the company could go bankrupt. He and others who are bearish on Tesla criticize the stock's high valuation. Lekander predicts that once Tesla announces its second-quarter results, the stock price will drop.
"In my opinion, Tesla is the biggest stock market bubble in world history. The models on the market are outdated and the valuation is absolutely crazy."
He predicts that Tesla's profits may decline by 50% this year.
In contrast, Cathie Wood's fund is "strongly supporting" Tesla.
ARK Fund predicts that Tesla's stock price will soar 12.5 times in the next five years, reaching $2,600. There is a 25% chance that Tesla's stock price will hit $3,100 by 2029.
"By 2029, nearly 90% of Tesla's market cap and profits will come from its robotaxi self-driving business."
"At the same time, electric vehicles may account for only a quarter of Tesla's total sales and 10% of its profit potential, as we believe the profit margin of the robotaxi business will be much higher."
Editor/tolk