June 18th, Graron Chief Global Market Strategist Kristina Hooper said the market currently reflects a relatively optimistic macro situation, and short-term volatility is expected as the market responds to changes in interest rate prospects, including any bullish or bearish data that may occur during this process. At this stage, compared to the exact number of rate cuts, the timing of the rate cut is more important, especially in a volatile market environment. In addition, there is also a major risk at present that some markets are overly optimistic and potential problems have not yet been fully reflected. Given that the growth and inflation pace of each economy in the future may be different, it is believed that economic differentiation will be the core theme in the remaining time of 2024. As of now, the impact of monetary policy tightening on the US economy is relatively small. However, after a series of unexpected upward macro data in the US, relevant growth seems to be showing signs of slowing down. Due to the impact of restrictive monetary policy, the US economic growth rate for the rest of the year may be slightly lower than the trend level. At the same time, inflation may continue to fluctuate downward before the end of the year, and the degree and pace of monetary policy easing may be limited if inflation stabilizes above the target level. The basic scenario expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice this year, possibly starting from the third quarter.