Geopolitical turmoil persists, but it's difficult to change the current situation of detouring.

Since June, the SCFIS Europe has continuously transmitted effective price increases. If this pace of increase continues, the SCFIS Europe announced next Monday may be expected to break through 5000 points. Pay close attention to the price increase of various shipping companies in July and the impact of cargo volume on the price landing. Long positions continue to be held in the early stage.

"Sometimes, the freight charges paid by customers are even higher than the value of the goods," said Li Yan, head of a foreign trade enterprise in Guangzhou in an interview with reporters.

To solve the problem of insufficient transportation capacity, shipowners have urgently mobilized other route transportation capacity while increasing the number of chartered ships, resulting in a strong rental market price.

Some shipowners also hope to increase transportation capacity by building new ships. A staff member of a large shipbuilding listed company told reporters, "At present, the global ship market is relatively prosperous, and almost all ship companies have reached full production capacity. The order coverage ratio of global ship companies has reached more than 3.5 years, and the company has received orders for 2028."

Guolian Securities released a research report stating that the shipping industry needs to choose investment opportunities during the global economic upswing and industry capacity shortage stage from the perspective of global trade cycles and industry life cycles.

However, with the frequent occurrence of black swan events in recent years, the supply-side tension caused by unexpected shocks has reversed the supply-demand relationship from long-term perspective of supply exceeding demand to short-term supply shortage, which has brought about an unexpected rise in freight rates.

At the same time, major changes in shipping alliances and industry patterns may help ease price competition under overcapacity.

In addition, from 2024 to 2026, the supply growth rate slightly exceeds the demand growth rate, but it is necessary to pay attention to the possibility of unexpected shocks causing a reversal of the supply-demand relationship.

Maritime shipping companies: COSCO Shipping Holdings (01919.HK), SITC International (01308.HK), OOIL (00316.HK), COSCO Shipping Development (02866.HK)

Container companies: Singamas Container (00716.HK), China International Marine Containers (02039.HK).