Source: Zhitong Finance "Since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%)." With the rebound of the stock market, the old adage "Sell in May and Go Away" seems to have been a bad advice once again. Last month, the S&P 500 index rose 4.8%, the best May performance since 2009. The NASDAQ 100 index rose nearly 6.2%, and the NASDAQ Composite Index rose 6.9%. Goldman Sachs FICC & Equities Trading Division said: "History doesn't really support this saying. Don't sell, leave the market (go on vacation), and enjoy the good times." The rising trend is still to be continued? If history is any guide, it may indicate that the rise of the stock market is not over yet. Looking ahead to the rest of 2024, Scott Rubner, Managing Director of the Goldman Sachs Global Markets Division and tactical expert, pointed out the following historical background for investors. Rubner stated that the S&P 500 index has risen 10.7% year-to-date, and since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%). "Since 1950, the median return of the last 7 months of each year (June 1 to December 31) is 5.4%. In the aforementioned 21 cases, the average performance of the last 7 months increased to 8.1%." Rubner added. Rubner also pointed out that the NASDAQ index has risen for 16 consecutive Julys, with an average return of about 4.64%.

JPMorgan's chief market strategist Marko Kolanovic said on Monday that if initial jobless claims continue to rise, it could raise concerns about economic recession and weigh on risk assets.

Data released last week showed that initial jobless claims in the United States rose to 242,000 in the week ending June 8, the highest level in nine months and the third consecutive week of increase. Marko Kolanovic said:"If the number of initial jobless claims in the United States fails to fall below 230,000 and continues to rise, concerns about economic recession may reappear, making risk assets feel uneasy."

Marko Kolanovic said that the prices of all risk assets currently reflect a "very low" expectation of economic recession. As of June 13, the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index suggests a 31.4% chance of economic recession. While the valuation of small-cap stocks suggests a "relatively limited" possibility of economic recession, the valuation of the S&P 500 index suggests a 0% chance of economic recession.

Marko Kolanovic said that the mild inflation data released last week strengthened the prospect of economic soft landing, but if the job market is significantly weakened at the same time, this mix may lead to concerns about recent economic recession.

JPMorgan measures recession risk by comparing the peak and trough of the current cycle with the stock market decline during previous economic recessions. Small-cap stocks in the United States are suitable for measuring cyclical risks, in part because they are sensitive to interest rates and rely more on floating-rate bonds than other asset classes. Marko Kolanovic said that in the previous 12 economic recessions, the average decline from peak to trough of small-cap stocks was about 33%, slightly higher than the 29% decline in the S&P 500 index.