Judging from the sales situation of the Stone Technology Sweeper 618 in the first two weeks, sales volume was 427 million yuan, up 6% year on year; sales volume was 102,000 units, up 2% year on year, sales share was 31%, up 1 pct year on year, and 5 pcts higher than Double 11 in '23, making it the number one brand share for sweepers.
Looking at the horizontal competition comparison, the company's 618 popular products this year are P10SPRO (and water and sewage versions) and G20S (and water and sewage versions), which have card slots of 3,500-4,500 yuan and 5,500+ yuan respectively, which occupy the middle and high-end positions. Covos, on the other hand, occupies a price range of 3000-4200 yuan with the T30PRO (and water and sewage versions) and 4,500+ yuan with the X5PRO; Cloud Whale occupies a position of 3000-4200 yuan with the J4 (and water and sewage versions). In 618, Stone Technology occupied the higher price range, and neither of the two major products had popular competitors with very close pricing, so the competitive pattern was good; the Covos X5PRO also had no popular competitors with close pricing, but the Covos T30PRO and Cloud Whale J4 were priced very close between 3000 and 3,500 yuan, facing the competition.
Looking at the vertical comparison itself, the main revenue of Stone Technology's all-purpose base station products comes from the P and G series. The P series reduced the price band of all-purpose base station type sweeper products from close to 4,000 yuan to 3,200+ yuan in exchange for price in the first half of 2023, effectively promoting the increase in the penetration rate of all-purpose base station type sweeper products. P10 sales also accounted for 24% of the 3,500-yuan price range in the first two weeks of '23 and 618, making it a major single product. Since then, the company upgraded the P series to P10PRO and P10SPRO through two major promotions of Double Eleven in '23 and 618 in '24, respectively. The price of the product was raised to the price range of 3,500-4000 yuan, and the P Series market share was increased by improving product functionality. The sales volume of the P10SPRO and P10PRO was 28% and 19% in the first two weeks of '24 618 and '23, respectively. Since then, Stone Technology has penetrated all-purpose base station sweeper products, upgraded prices, and increased market share.
In terms of the G series, the company has maintained the status of having large single products at a price of 4,500+ yuan in the past year. From the first two weeks of '23 to Double Eleven in '23, to the first two weeks of '24 618, the company's G20 (water and sewage version), and G20S (water and sewerage version) each accounted for 18%, 10%, and 10% shares of sales volume at 4,500+ yuan. Covos relied on X1SPRO, X2, and X5PRO to account for 16%, 16%, and 15%. Mainly Covos was priced at 4,500-5,000 yuan, while G20S (water and sewerage version) was priced higher at 5,500+ yuan. The company has a higher price range and maintains a high brand tone. At the same time, the company still has room to increase its share in the 4,500+ price band.
In summary, we believe that in the process of increasing the penetration rate of all-purpose base station sweeper products in this round, Stone Technology has taken a more active position and is also in a better price range. The company's net profit for 2024-2026 is estimated to be 25.46/30.51/37.16 billion yuan, respectively, 19.35/23.19/28.24 yuan for EPS, and 20.77/17.33/14.23 times the current share price for PE, respectively, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: increased market competition, fluctuations in raw material costs, exchange rate fluctuations, etc.