Source: Wall Street See
Authors: Fang Jiayao, Du Yu.
S&P 500 index rose on the fifth day of the six days, Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 continued to reach new highs for six consecutive days, Dow Jones stopped falling for four consecutive days and pulled away from nearly two weeks low, Russell small-cap stock index stopped falling for two consecutive days and pulled away from a six-week low.
Microsoft's closing market cap is still the first in US stocks, followed by Apple and Nvidia. But Nvidia, which hit a new intraday high in early trading, once surpassed Apple's market cap. Tesla rose more than 5%, and Qualcomm, Taiwan Semiconductor, Micron Technology, and Oracle hit new highs while Gamestop fell more than 12%. The China concept index basically wiped out the 1% drop, B station rose 6.7%, and Nio, Xpeng, and BYD ADR all rose about 2%.
French stocks rose relatively the most in European stocks. US bond yields rose more than 8 basis points, pulling away from ten-week lows. Oil prices all rose 2%, reaching the highest level in seven weeks since April. During the session oil rose by about $2, and WTI closed above $80. The US dollar fell slightly, the euro remained about six weeks low, the yen traded at a 34-year low, and offshore renminbi traded at 7.27. Spot gold fell 1%, approaching $2310, while London copper and aluminum hit their lowest level in two months.
Under the dual pressures of the unstable European political situation and the hesitation of the Bank of Japan in policy normalization, as well as the potential financial crisis in Europe and the risk of the yen exchange rate, a large amount of funds flowed into US stocks and bonds, and AI/technology stocks were held in groups. This drove Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia, the three "$3 trillion giants," to take turns to set historical highs in market cap, while the S&P 500 large-cap index and the technology-dominated Nasdaq have risen for seven weeks in the past eight weeks, creating historical highs.
On Monday, US stock indices continued to rise, led by technology stocks. Both Nasdaq and S&P 500 large-cap hit historical highs again, and other indices such as the Russell 2000 Index and Dow Jones also rose. Most sectors rose, with the technology and non-essential consumer goods sectors performing the best, while the defensive utilities, real estate, and medical care sectors performed the worst.
The Bank of England's interest rate decision is currently being made, and investors have partially eliminated the negative sentiment from last week, and the euro rebounded. Most European stocks rebounded, and the French stock index performed better than the German, Italian, and British stock indices. However, Eurobonds continued to fall, with the yield of 10-year French government bonds rising more than 7 basis points. The US dollar fell, and most US bond yields rose more than 5 basis points.
After the speeches of Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari and Philadelphia Fed President Harker, US bond yields rose, and precious metals (gold and silver) fell. Harker said that if the economic situation meets expectations, the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates once in 2024, but in the face of uncertainty, it's possible that the Fed could cut rates twice or not cut rates, depending on the data. Kashkari said that the central bank may wait until December to cut interest rates and needs more evidence that inflation is falling to 2%.
After the hawkish speech, the expectation of interest rate cuts decreased today.
The market is watching for US retail sales in May on Tuesday, initial weekly jobless claims on Thursday, and PMI preliminary values on Friday. On Wednesday June 19, the US stock and bond markets will be closed for one day for June's holiday (Juneteenth). Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will attend a Senate committee's hearing on July 9 regarding FOMC monetary policy.
US stock indices rose across the board, with Nasdaq and S&P 500 hitting new highs again, and most European stocks rebounded. The French stock index performed better than the German, Italian, and British stock indices.
Authors: Fang Jiayao, Du Yu.
Translated text not provided.
On Monday, June 17th, the major stock indexes of the US rose, with large-cap technology stocks supporting the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq hitting a new high, with the highest increase among major indexes. The information technology sector is the best-performing sector in the S&P 500, with chip manufacturers performing particularly well. Among them, the operating income of 10-30 billion yuan products was brilliant, with 401/1288/60 million yuan respectively.
As of the close, the S&P large cap, mostly technology-based Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 set new record closing highs, while the small cap Russell 2000 index fell for the second consecutive day and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell for the fourth consecutive day.
The S&P 500 index rose 41.63 points, or 0.77%, to close at 5473.23. The Dow rose 188.94 points, or 0.49%, to close at 38778.10. The Nasdaq rose 168.14 points, or 0.95%, to close at 17857.02.
The Nasdaq 100 index rose 1.24% to a new high, and the Nasdaq Technology Market Capitalization Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of Nasdaq 100 technology stocks, rose 1.14% to a new high. Among the constituent stocks, Autodesk ADSK, Broadcom, Micron Technology, Synopsys, Lam Research, Qualcomm, Cadence Design Systems, KLA Corp, Applied Materials, ASML Holding ADR, GlobalWafers, and Apple rose at least 2% to lead the way, while ten constituent stocks fell, with Nvidia falling about 0.7% and AMD falling about 0.8%, with Ansys falling more than 1.7% in third-last place and Marvell Technology falling about 2% and TEAM falling 2.17%.
The Russell 2000 index rose 0.79%, and the VIX panic index rose 0.71% to 12.75 at the close.
Last week, major US indexes saw mixed gains and losses, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, dominated by blue chips, and the small-cap Russell 2000 index falling for the third week in four, while the S&P 500 large-cap and Nasdaq hit historic highs and rose for the seventh week in eight. This week, investors will evaluate whether this upward trend can continue and whether there are hidden concerns about the market prospects.
Greg Bassuk, CEO of AXS Investment Company, said: "Today's market performance is a continuation of last week's situation. For some time, a series of factors have shown optimism. Economic data is beginning to show signs of being stronger and more stable, showing the resilience of the economy. Of course, people are also optimistic about the possibility of interest rate cuts."
However, JPMorgan warned that if technology cannot further drive the overall economy, the stock market may experience a downturn. Marko Kolanovic, the firm's chief global market strategist, told clients: "We believe that technology will continue to be a key driver of economic growth in the coming years, and we do not believe its impact on corporate profits will suddenly become profound, so we remain cautious in this regard."
Growth tech stocks, except for Nvidia, rose across the board. Tesla was the best performing, up 5.3%, leading the way among the "Seven Sisters," with Apple up 1.97%, Microsoft up 1.31%, and Meta up 0.49%, with Google A and Amazon up to 0.2%.
Most chip stocks rose, with many individual stocks hitting new highs. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 1.60% to a new closing high. The semiconductor industry ETF SOXX also rose 1.58% to a new high. However, Nvidia opened higher and rose more than 1.4% before turning lower, closing down 0.68%, and Nvidia's double-long ETF fell more than 1.3%. KLA Corp, Broadcom, Taiwan Semiconductor, Applied Materials, Micron Technology, Synopsys, Qualcomm, Cadence Design Systems, and ASML Holding ADR set new closing highs. Broadcom rose 5.41%, setting a new closing high for the sixth consecutive trading day, with a market capitalization of over $850 billion; Micron Technology rose about 4.6%, setting a new closing high after a day; Qualcomm rose 3.2%, also setting a new closing high after a day; Taiwan Semiconductor ADR rose more than 2.7%, setting a new closing high.
Most AI concept stocks rose. Dell rose 5.22%, Super Micro Computer rose 5.08%, Palantir rose 6.15%, Snowflake rose 2.75%, Oracle rose 2.3%, CrowdStrike rose 1.3%, C3.ai rose 0.59%, while SoundHound.ai, an Nvidia concept stock, fell 3.16% and BigBear.ai fell 2.94%.
China concept stocks showed mixed results today. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 0.05% to 6048.76 points. In terms of ETFs, the China Technology Index ETF (CQQQ) rose 1.36%, the iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) rose 0.83%, and the KWEB China Internet Index ETF rose 0.56%.
In the popular China concept stock market, MMTEC Inc. fell by 6.74%, Tencent Music fell more than 4.3%, Canadian Solar fell more than 3.4%, Qifu Technology fell by about 2.9%, KE Holdings fell more than 2.1%, New Oriental, Autohome, and Li Auto fell more than 1.9%, while Baidu, Yum China, Daqo New Energy, ZTO Express, NetEase, Ctrip at most fell more than 0.6%. Douyu, Miniso, Kanzhun, JinkoSolar, Tal Education, and Hollysys Automation Technologies at most rose by 0.9%. H World Group, Sohu.com, Zai Lab, JD.com, Alibaba, VIPSHOP, Noah Holdings, and Xpeng at most rose by 1.81%, Nio Inc. rose over 2.3%, Bilibili rose over 6.6%, YATSEN reached 7.2%, LUCKIN rose over 7.7%, CITIC Medical System rose over 9.8%, and Canaan Inc. surged 19.61%.
Stocks held by retail investors saw a fall today. The GameStop's stock fell for two consecutive days and closed down 12.13%. Koss Corp fell 1.71%, AMC Theatres fell 2%, and Koss Corp fell 0.5%.
On the news front:
Nvidia: Jeff Kilburg, chief investment officer of KKM Financial, said that after a significant increase in Nvidia's share price this year, the company may face downside risks and it is time to be cautious about owning Nvidia. He said, "It has been a stellar performer, and owning it is very reasonable, but I think at some point when we talk about actual performance, we need to recognize that Nvidia's stock price has risen 800%, so there may be adjustments."
Taiwan Semiconductor: Taiwan Semiconductor plans to raise the price of 3nm manufacturing process by 5% from next year, and that of advanced packaging by 10%-20%. The capacity shortage is expected to continue until 2026.
Micron Technology: Bank of America released a research report that raised the target prices of ARM and Micron Technology because the heat generated by the generative AI is beginning to shift toward consumer devices including PCs and smartphones.
Tesla: Tesla has lowered the price of the Model 3 long-range all-wheel-drive version. Musk claimed that he is committed to the Tesla Master 4 plan.
Apple: After a year, Apple is shutting down its Pay Later program, which allowed customers to make installment payments, signaling the company's retreat on providing more financial services internally. On June 17, the company announced that it will no longer offer new loans through Pay Later, which allowed users to make four payments for charges up to $1,000. Prior to this, Apple announced that third-party services such as Affirm Holdings Inc. and Citi would be included in the upcoming iOS 18 software.
Qualcomm: According to Guo Mingchi, an analyst at TF International Securities, Qualcomm may become the exclusive system-level chip supplier for Samsung Galaxy S25 (compared to about 40% for Galaxy S24).
GameStop (GME): Ryan Cohen, CEO of the company, said that the company is focusing on profitability and avoiding speculation at the shareholders meeting.
This week's Bank of England rate decision saw investors shake off negative sentiment from the previous week, with most major exchanges and sectors showing gains. The French stock index rose more than 0.9%, outperforming Germany, Italy, and the UK:
The pan-European Stoxx 600 index rose 0.09% to 511.49 points. During the session, it hit a new high of 514.63 points but quickly fell to 508.78 points, hitting a new intraday low since May 6. The Euro Stoxx 50 index rose 0.85%, ending two days of steep decline and breaking away from its lowest closing level in nearly four months. The FTSE All-World Excluding US 300 Index rose 0.12%.
The French CAC 40 index rose 0.91%, breaking away from its lowest closing level since January 25 and gaining more than 2% from last week's decline of over 6.2%, its largest weekly decline since March 2022. Meanwhile, the German DAX 30 index rose 0.37%, its lowest closing level since May 3. The Italian FTSE MIB index rose 0.74%. The UK FTSE 100 index fell 0.06%, and the Spanish IBEX 35 index fell 0.3%.
Chip stocks are strong. In the "Eleven Arhats" of European stocks, ASML Holding rose 1.72%, while Novo-Nordisk fell 1.06%. Outside the "Eleven Arhats," ASM International rose 2.28%, STMicroelectronics rose 0.84%, and BE Semiconductor Industries rose 0.2%。In addition, the automotive stock Ferrari rose 1.47%.
Reportedly, in November 2022, due to the turmoil of Brexit dragging down the growth of the British economy, the British stock market weakened. France took advantage of the situation and took the title of the largest stock market in Europe. However, now, the turmoil of the French election has dragged down the stock market, and Britain has regained the title of the largest stock market in Europe.
The yields of most US bonds rose by more than 5 basis points, and the yields of European bonds continued to fall. The yield of 10-year French government bonds rose more than 7 basis points.
In the afternoon session, the yields of most US bonds rose more than 5 basis points. The yields of the two-year US bonds, which are more sensitive to monetary policy, rose by 5.89 basis points to 4.7634%, and were traded in the range of 4.6999% to 4.7676% during the session. The yield on 10-year benchmark US Treasuries rose 5.42 basis points to 4.2751%, and traded in the range of 4.2266% to 4.2925% during the session.
On June 17th, Home Depot issued $10 billion in investment grade corporate bonds, and more than ten other companies raised a total of over $10 billion.
In addition, the 3-year US bond yield rose 5.88 basis points, the 5-year US bond yield rose 6.13 basis points, the 7-year US bond yield rose 5.67 basis points. The yield on 20-year US bonds rose 4.84 basis points, and the yield on 30-year US bonds rose 5.30 basis points.
As a benchmark for the euro zone, the yield on 10-year German government bonds ended a four-day decline, rising by 5.3 basis points to 2.414%, saying goodbye to a new low since April 12th of 2.342% last Friday. The yield on the two-year German bond rose 5.2 basis points to 2.814%, ending a four-day decline. The yields on 10-year government bonds in France, Spain, Italy, Greece, and the UK rose by 7.5 basis points, 1.7 basis points, 1.4 basis points, 1.1 basis points, and 5.9 basis points, respectively.
Analysis shows that US bond yields rose after speeches by Fed Voting Committee member Kashkari and president of the Philadelphia Fed Harker, who is a member of the FOMC Voting Committee in 2026. In addition, a credit strategist at Deutsche Bank said in a report that political turmoil in Europe is likely to continue until July 7th. If the investment-grade and high-yield US dollar bond spreads reach the high end of the 90 range and about 340 basis points, credit investors should start buying on the dips. If political concerns ease, securities and banks with higher credit ratings should be the first to get bid.
The ICE US Dollar Index fell 0.2%, the yen oscillated downwards and fell 0.2% throughout the day, the euro rose 0.2%, Bitcoin futures rose by about 1.4%, and Ethereum futures rose by more than 3.2%.
The US Dollar Index DXY, which measures against six major currencies, fell 0.19% to 105.349 points. The intraday trading range was 105.647-105.306 points.
The Bloomberg Dollar Index fell 0.02% to 1266.67 points. The intraday trading range was 1269.18-1266.27 points.
Among Asian currencies, the US dollar against the yen rose 0.21%, reporting 157.72. The offshore renminbi (CNH) against the US dollar reported 7.2701 yuan, up 10 points from the end of New York last Friday, and traded between 7.2730-7.2672 yuan during the session.
The euro rose 0.20% against the US dollar, the pound rose 0.13% against the US dollar, and the US dollar against the Swiss franc fell 0.07%; among commodity currencies, the Australian dollar against the US dollar fell 0.07%, the New Zealand dollar against the US dollar fell 0.23%, and the US dollar against the Canadian dollar rose 0.01%.
Most mainstream cryptocurrencies rose. The CME Bitcoin futures BTC main contract reported 66540.00 US dollars, up 1.37% from the end of New York last Friday.
The CME Ethereum futures DCR main contract reported 3525.50 US dollars, up 3.24% from last Friday.
Oil prices rose by about 2%, breaking away from a three-week low, while US natural gas fell more than 3.2% due to optimistic oil demand expectations.
WTI crude oil futures for July closed up $1.88, up 2.39% to $80.33 a barrel, the first time since May 17 that it has closed above the key psychological level of $80. Brent August futures closed up $1.63, up 1.97% to $84.25 a barrel, the first time since the end of April that it has closed above $84. There was also a rebound in international benchmark oil prices over the past four weeks amid optimistic prospects for future oil demand growth. Last week, reports from OPEC+, the International Energy Agency (IEA), and the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) all indicated that oil demand would improve in the second half of the year, helping to reduce inventories. In addition, Saudi Arabia guaranteed that its production increase starting in October would be flexibly adjusted according to market conditions, and that it would pay more attention to countries that violated quotas in order to reduce production to a reasonable level. OPEC+ member countries such as Russia and Iraq have promised to abide by production quotas, and these factors will all help support oil prices.
US WTI crude oil futures, which are more actively traded, rose as much as $1.93, or 2.5%, to test the key $80 level. International Brent rose as much as $1.90, or 2.3%, breaking through two key barriers of $83 and $84 in succession.
Analysts pointed out that the optimistic prospect of future oil demand growth has boosted oil prices. Last week, reports from OPEC+, the International Energy Agency (IEA), and the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) all indicated that oil demand would improve in the second half of the year, helping to reduce inventories. As a result, both benchmark oil prices recorded their first weekly gains in four weeks. Moreover, Saudi Arabia guaranteed that its production increase starting in October would be flexibly adjusted according to market conditions, and that it would pay more attention to countries that violated quotas in order to reduce production to a reasonable level. OPEC+ member countries such as Russia and Iraq have promised to abide by production quotas, and these factors will all help support oil prices.
In addition, analysts pointed out that the favorable economic data released by China on Monday has boosted oil demand. In the first five months of this year, China's manufacturing investment grew strongly, reaching 9.6%. Moreover, analysts at AEGIS hedge fund pointed out on Monday that the rise in geopolitical risk premiums has also supported oil prices. The Israeli military said on Sunday that an attack by the Lebanese Hezbollah could lead to a significant escalation in the situation, raising concerns about a wider conflict in the Middle East.
European benchmark TTF Dutch natural gas futures, as well as ICE UK futures, rose and fell, with the close of the day falling more than 3%. US natural gas for July fell more than 4% and fell below $2.80, continuing to fall from a six-month high for four consecutive days, with a 12% year-to-date increase.
Due to the impact of rising US Treasury yields and speeches by hawkish Fed officials, gold longs failed to rebound and prices slipped without standing firm at $2335, with London zinc closing up more than 1.7%.
COMEX August gold futures closed down about 0.60% at $2334.9 an ounce, failing to stand firm at $2335, while COMEX July silver futures closed up about 0.18% at $29.525 an ounce.
Analysts pointed out that the rise in bond yields and hawkish remarks by Fed officials had an impact on gold prices. On the one hand, the yield on 10-year US Treasury notes rebounded today after a steep decline last week, making zero-yield gold less attractive to investors. On the other hand, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said on Sunday that there was a "reasonable expectation" of a Fed rate cut this year, which is expected to take place in December.
In addition, analysts pointed out that there is still great uncertainty about the timing of a rate cut, and macroeconomic positions will remain sensitive to unexpected data in the short term. Gold prices may be rangebound between $2,300 and $2,400 until the next major fundamental catalyst appears, which may not happen until July.
London industrial metals prices were mixed.
"Copper Doctor" fell $76 to $9,666 a tonne. London aluminum fell $16 to $2,502 a tonne, London nickel fell $108 to $17,467 a tonne, London tin fell $170 to $32,148 a tonne. London zinc, on the other hand, rose by $48, or more than 1.73%, to $2,816 a tonne. London lead rose by $17 to $2,156 a tonne.
In addition, domestic black futures were mixed in night trading. Caustic soda night trading closed flat. Coke night trading rose as much as 0.15%, with asphalt, fuel oil and coking coal rising by up to 0.58%. Shanghai lead night trading ended up more than 1.5%, with aluminum oxide falling more than 0.8%. Shanghai zinc and nickel main contracts rose 0.31% and fell 0.35%, respectively.
Editor/Jeffy