Amid intensified investments in High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) by Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, there is a noticeable surge in the prices of legacy DRAM products. The shift in focus towards HBM has led to a reduction in the production capacity of legacy products, which could lead to a shortage in the supply of generic DRAMs if the trend continues.
According to the semiconductor industry on June 16, market research firm TrendForce has predicted that the price of the old DDR3 DRAM could increase by 50-100% in the second half of the year. This price surge is a result of Samsung Electronics halting production of DDR3 products in the second quarter, while SK hynix and Micron are also reallocating their production lines to focus on HBM and DDR5, drastically reducing the supply.
TrendForce highlighted that "the general DRAM market is experiencing an unprecedented supply-demand imbalance cycle, intensifying the shortage of DDR3 production capacity." It is analyzed that the overall supply gap could exceed 20-30% in the second half of the year.
The price of DDR4 is also on an upward trajectory across all product categories. According to market research firm Omdia, the price of DDR4 (16GB) for PCs rose from $27 in the first quarter to $29.7 in the second quarter and is expected to stay at this level until the third quarter. During the same period, the price of mobile LPDDR4 (12GB) increased from $22.1 to $23.4, and server DDR4 (64GB) is projected to rise from $126 to $140.
This price inflation is partly due to the balloon effect caused by the HBM boom. HBM requires 2.5-3 times the production capacity of conventional DRAMs of the same wafer die size and has a limited yield rate of about 50-60%. Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, and U.S.-based Micron have all been expanding their HBM production at least twice as much as last year.
The semiconductor industry anticipates that this situation will lead to a distinct shortage in the supply of legacy memory. Investment bank Morgan Stanley in its recent report projected that the demand for generic DRAM will exceed supply by 23% next year, which is more than double the shortage ratio of HBM at 11%. Considering that HBM currently makes up about 20% of the total DRAM market, price increases in generic DRAM could significantly boost chip manufacturers' financial performance.
Choi Min-sook, a research analyst at Korea Investment & Securities, stated, "The supply constraints caused by HBM will have a positive effect on the improvement of supply and demand. The average selling price (ASP) of memory is expected to continue rising until next year, prolonging the upcycle."
출처 : Businesskorea(