FUTU Morning Post

US stock market preview: Three major futures prices are mixed, focusing on retail sales and employment market trends this week; chip stocks generally rose before the market, with Broadcom, Taiwan Semiconductor, and Micron up about 3%.

Futu News · Jun 17 20:34

全球宏观

周一盘前，美股三大期指涨跌不一

美联储内部“鹰风一致”：再等等其他数据，不急着降息！

明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利表示，在开始降息之前，美联储实际上仍处于有利地位，可以慢慢来，观察即将公布的数据。他表示，“我们需要看到更多的证据来让我们相信，通胀正在稳步回落至2%。在我们做出任何决定之前，我们现在处于一个非常有利的位置，可以慢慢来，获得更多的通胀数据，更多的经济和劳动力市场数据。”

本周关注零售销售与就业市场动向

投资者将迎来一个较为平静的一周。最重要的数据当属将于北京时间周二20:30公布的美国5月零售销售数据，制造业、服务业PMI数据和初请失业金人数的最新数据也将受到关注。据了解，经济学家预计，美国5月零售销售将环比增长0.3%，较4月的环比增长0%出现反弹。

高盛：美股续创新高都靠科技股，但市场的风险在消费端

高盛指出，标普500指数再次回到“超买”区域。从流动性的角度来看，投资者继续对“七姐妹”这类大型科技股保持旺盛需求，上周净买入金额高达85亿美元。但高盛也表示，虽然美股一直在创新高，但美国经济增长预期过于乐观，其中最容易忽略的是中低端消费者的财务恶化及消费下降。虽然通胀正在缓解，但物价水平对消费者仍然具有挑战性。

比尔·盖茨下血本：将向新一代核电站项目再投入数十亿美元！

比尔·盖茨近日表示，他准备向怀俄明州的下一代核电站项目再投入数十亿美元，以满足美国日益增长的电力需求。他在一场电视采访节目中表示，其个人创办的初创公司TerraPower LLC上周已在怀俄明州破土动工，建造其首个商用反应堆。

美高管薪酬正以14年来最快速度猛涨

马斯克的560亿美元天价薪酬方案可能正引导着美股企业趋势，带动美国高管薪酬以至少14年来最快的速度增长。代理顾问机构Institutional Shareholder Services旗下ISS Corporate的数据显示，2024年年初至今，标普500指数成分股公司CEO的薪酬中值已经同比上涨了12%。相比之下，官方数据显示，美国工资同比增幅为4.1%。

贝莱德谈比特币ETF：投资顾问依旧谨慎，但已缓慢接纳此类产品

贝莱德ETF和指数投资首席投资官萨马拉·科恩在一次会议上指出，自比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）今年1月推出后，投资顾问们正在逐步接纳这种基金。他表示，根据上季度的13-F文件，对冲基金和券商开始逐渐成为比特币ETF的买家，而投资顾问还是比较“谨慎”，不过现在也开始转变并逐渐探索投资比特币ETF基金。

热点要闻

芯片股盘前多数上涨，博通、台积电、美光涨约3%

报道称台积电计划涨价：3nm或涨超5%，先进封装涨10%-20%

据台媒《工商时报》报道，在产能供不应求的情况下，$台积电 (TSM.US)$将针对3nm、5nm先进制程和先进封装执行价格调涨。其中，台积电3nm代工报价涨幅或在5%以上，先进封装明年年度报价涨幅在10%—20%。截至发稿，台积电盘前涨超3%，开盘势创历史新高。

知名科技记者：“苹果智能”最快夏末开放试用

彭博科技记者、知名$苹果 (AAPL.US)$爆料人Mark Gurman报道称，苹果计划在未来几个月逐步推出其智能功能，以规避其它人工智能系统曾遇到的问题。具体来看，苹果智能服务将于今夏晚些时候向开发者开放试用，这意味着它不包含在iOS 18、iPadOS 18及macOS Sequoia的首次beta版本中。且当新的操作系统最终在秋季正式推出时，AI功能将以预览版本形式出现，仅支持苹果的部分设备并且仅支持美国英语地区使用。

AI货币化程度不断提高，韦德布什上调微软目标价

韦德布什分析师丹·艾夫斯将$微软 (MSFT.US)$的目标价从500美元上调至550美元，理由是人工智能客户的积极反馈，以及Copilot和Azure的货币化程度不断提高。他写道，“Copilot和Azure的货币化浪潮也即将到来，企业的人工智能交易转化率正在加快。”

巨型ETF再平衡，英伟达或迎百亿美元买入

据媒体报道，700亿美元巨型ETF$科技行业精选指数ETF-SPDR (XLK.US)$将在本周进行季度再平衡，调整股权权重。目前$苹果 (AAPL.US)$和$微软 (MSFT.US)$分别占该基金约22%的权重，$英伟达 (NVDA.US)$在该基金中的权重占不到6%。瑞银此前在报告中预测，如果英伟达升至第二位，那么英伟达在该基金中的权重将跃升至 21%。而英伟达15%的权重波动意味着该基金需要买入大量英伟达股票，金额可能高达100亿美元。

股东大会召开在即，游戏驿站个人投资者热情再度燃起

$游戏驿站 (GME.US)$年度股东大会定于美东时间周一即将举行，这在社交媒体上引起了该公司众多狂热散户粉丝的热议。主持这次仅限线上会议的Computershare发言人表示，因大量股民涌入直播引发网站技术问题，原定于上周举行的股东大会延期至本周一下午12:30举行。

聚焦中概股

热门中概股盘前普涨

美股盘前成交额TOP20

美股宏观事历提醒

（以下均为北京时间）

20:30 美国6月纽约联储制造业指数

次日凌晨01:00 2026年FOMC票委、费城联储主席哈克就经济前景发表讲话

编辑/tolk

Global macro

Before the opening on Monday, the three major U.S. futures contracts were mixed in gains and losses.

Federal Reserve's internal consensus on 'hawkishness': Wait for other data, no rush to cut interest rates!

Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said the Fed is actually in a favorable position before starting rate cuts and can take it slowly and observe data that will be released soon. "We need to see more evidence that inflation is steadily falling to 2%. Before we make any decision, we are in a very favorable position now to slowly obtain more inflation data and more economic and labor market data."

This week will focus on retail sales and employment market dynamics.

Investors will see a relatively calm week. The most important data is the May U.S. retail sales data, which will be announced at 20:30 Beijing time on Tuesday. The latest data on manufacturing and service industry PMI data, and initial jobless claims will also be watched closely. Economists predict that U.S. retail sales in May are expected to grow by 0.3% on a month-on-month basis, rebounding from 0% on a month-on-month basis in April.

Goldman Sachs: The continued bullish market in US stocks depends on tech stocks, but the market risks lie in the consumer side.

Goldman Sachs pointed out that the S&P 500 index returned to the "overbought" area. From the perspective of liquidity, investors continue to have a strong demand for large tech stocks such as the "Big Seven Sisters", and the net purchase amount last week was as high as 8.5 billion U.S. dollars. However, Goldman Sachs also stated that although US stocks have been reaching new highs, the expectation of US economic growth is overly optimistic. The most easily overlooked thing is the financial deterioration of middle and low-end consumers and the decline in consumption. Although inflation is easing, price levels are still challenging for consumers.

Bill Gates invests billions of dollars in new nuclear power plant projects for the next generation!

Bill Gates recently stated that he is preparing to invest billions of dollars in the next generation of nuclear power plant projects in Wyoming to meet the growing power demand in the United States. He said in a TV interview that TerraPower LLC, his personally founded start-up company, broke ground on its first commercial reactor last week in Wyoming.

U.S. executive salaries are rising at the fastest rate in 14 years.

Musk's $56 billion sky-high salary plan may be leading the trend for US stock companies, driving the fastest growth in US executive salaries in at least 14 years. Data from ISS Corporate under Institutional Shareholder Services, an agency adviser, shows that the median CEO salary for S&P 500 component stocks has risen 12% year-on-year since the beginning of 2024. By comparison, official data showed that US wages increased by 4.1% year-on-year.

BlackRock talks about Bitcoin ETFs: Investment advisors are still cautious, but are slowly accepting such products.

BlackRock ETF and Index Investment CIO Samara Cohen pointed out at a meeting that since the Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) was launched in January this year, investment advisers are gradually accepting this type of fund. He said that according to last quarter's 13-F document, hedge funds and brokerages began to gradually become buyers of Bitcoin ETFs, and investment advisers are still relatively "cautious". However, they are now beginning to change and gradually explore investment in Bitcoin ETFs.

Hot news

Chip stocks mostly rose in early trading, Broadcom, Taiwan Semiconductor and Micron rose by about 3%.

Taiwan Semiconductor is said to be planning to raise prices: 3nm or more than 5%, advanced packaging will rise 10%-20%.

According to Taiwan's Business Times, in the current situation of supply and demand imbalance, Taiwan Semiconductor will adjust prices for advanced processes such as 3nm and 5nm and advanced packaging. Among them, Taiwan Semiconductor's 3nm foundry quotation may increase by more than 5%, and the annual packaging quotation may increase by 10%-20% next year. At the time of publication, Taiwan Semiconductor before the market opened increased by over 3% and its momentum hit a historic high.$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$Famous technology journalist: "Apple Intelligence" will open for trial use at the end of summer at the earliest.

According to Bloomberg technology journalist and well-known whistleblower Mark Gurman, Apple plans to gradually release its intelligence function in the next few months to avoid problems that other artificial intelligence systems have encountered. Specifically, Apple's intelligent service will be open for developers to try out later this summer, which means it is not included in the initial beta versions of iOS 18, iPadOS 18 and macOS Sequoia. When the new operating system is finally officially launched in the fall, the AI function will appear in preview version, only supports the use of Apple's devices and US English regions.

Bloomberg technology journalist and well-known leaker Mark Gurman reported that Apple plans to gradually roll out its AI capabilities in the coming months to avoid problems encountered by other AI systems. Specifically, Apple's intelligent service will be available for developers to try out this summer, meaning it will not be included in the first beta versions of iOS 18, iPadOS 18 and macOS Sequoia. And when the new operating system is finally released in the fall, the AI functionality will appear in preview form, only supporting certain Apple devices and only available for use in US English-speaking regions.$Apple (AAPL.US)$Wade Bush analyst Dan Ives

The degree of AI monetization is increasing, and Wade Bush has raised Microsoft's target price.

BlackRock analyst Dan Ive$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$The target price has been raised from $500 to $550, due to positive feedback from AI customers and the increasing monetization of Copilot and Azure. He wrote, "The monetization trend of Copilot and Azure is also coming, and the conversion rate of AI trading for enterprises is accelerating."

Giant ETFs rebalance, Nvidia may receive billions of dollars in buy-ins.

According to media reports, a $70 billion giant ETF will be rebalanced this week, adjusting stock weights. Currently, they account for about 22% of the fund's weight, while Nvidia's weight in the fund is less than 6%. UBS Group previously predicted in its report that if Nvidia rises to second place, its weight in the fund will soar to 21%. Nvidia's 15% weight fluctuation means that the fund needs to buy a large amount of Nvidia stocks, with the amount possibly reaching $10 billion.$The Technology Select Sector SPDR® Fund (XLK.US)$The annual shareholder meeting is coming soon, and the enthusiasm of individual investors for GameStop has been reignited.$Apple (AAPL.US)$ and $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled to be held on Monday, Eastern Time, which has caused a lot of discussion among the company's many enthusiastic individual investors on social media. The Computershare spokesperson hosting this exclusively online conference stated that due to the rush of shareholders to the live broadcast causing technical issues on the website, the shareholder meeting originally scheduled for last week has been postponed to 12:30 p.m. this Monday.$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$The New York Fed Manufacturing Index for June will be released at 8:30 pm ET. The next morning at 1:00 am, FOMC voter and Philadelphia Fed President Harker will give a speech on the economic outlook for 2026.

The target price has been raised from $500 to $550, due to positive feedback from AI customers and the increasing monetization of Copilot and Azure. He wrote, "The monetization trend of Copilot and Azure is also coming, and the conversion rate of AI trading for enterprises is accelerating."

$GameStop (GME.US)$Giant ETFs rebalance, Nvidia may receive billions of dollars in buy-ins.

Not to be outdone, after NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun announced the latest AI chip iteration schedule on the evening of June 2nd, AMD CEO Su Zifeng also threw out an iteration roadmap during her speech on the morning of June 3rd before the COMPUTEX opened. The company will launch the MI325 X and Ryzen AI300 this year, the MI350 series in 2025, and the MI400 series in 2026.

China concept stocks are up across the board.

Bilibili rose more than 3% pre-market trading and was upgraded to "buy" by UBS, which raised its EPS estimate per share.

Reminder for US Macro Events

(All in Peking Time)

The annual shareholder meeting is coming soon, and the enthusiasm of individual investors for GameStop has been reignited.

Editor/tolk

The translation is provided by third-party software.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.