Goldman Sachs' research report pointed out that the May currency and credit data in the mainland were lower than expected. The total social financing increased slightly, mainly due to the accelerated issuance of government bonds. From the composition of RMB loans data, the demand for credit in May is still weak, with moderate expansion of household loans, slowing growth of corporate loans on a quarterly basis, and a decrease in new loans for bill financing. The growth rates of M1 and M2 in May further slowed down. The slow pace of national bond issuance, combined with weak demand for private credit, has led to sufficient front-end liquidity in the near term, reducing the urgency of the central bank's recent reserve ratio cut.

The bank expects the PBOC to reduce the reserve requirement ratio by 25 basis points in the third quarter and cut interest rates by 10 basis points in the fourth quarter. In addition, the bank expects the Fed to cut interest rates for the first time in September.