Sanwa HD Research Memo (7): Although a decrease in profit is expected for the fiscal year ending in March 2025, the company will secure profits that exceed its medium-term target.

Fisco Japan · Jun 17 14:37

■三和ホールディングス＜5929＞の今後の見通し

● 2025年3月期の業績予想

今後の世界経済は、世界的な金融引き締め政策の継続や地政学リスクの拡大など先行き不透明な状況が続くものと想定される。こうした環境下において、同社グループは、2023年3月期より「三和グローバルビジョン2030」を掲げ、その第一次としてスタートした「中期経営計画2024」の最終年度を迎え、引き続き基本戦略を推進する計画だ。

2025年3月期については、売上高625,000百万円（前期比2.3%増）、営業利益62,500百万円（同4.4%減）、経常利益62,000百万円（同4.5%減）、親会社株主に帰属する当期純利益42,500百万円（同1.7%減）と、小幅の増収減益を予想する。売上高では、日本は数量増と売価転嫁により増収を予想する。米州は販売価格の下落を折り込むものの、数量増により増収を見込む。欧州はさらなる市場の縮小を販売施策で補い、前年並みを確保する見込みである。営業利益では、日本と米州で数量増の効果を見込む。日本では引き続き売価転嫁に努めるが、米州では販売価格下落のインパクトが大きい。また、各セクターでコストアップとなる見込みだが、米州ではコスト削減策に努める計画だ。この結果、営業利益率は10.0%（同0.7ポイント低下）になる見込みだ。親会社株主に帰属する当期純利益については、2025年3月期は前期のような大きな特別損益は見込んでおらず、小幅の減益を予想する。ただ、同社グループによる期初の業績予想は保守的であり、最終的には予想を上回って着地する可能性が高いと弊社では考える。

セクター別の業績見通しは以下のとおりである。

(1) 日本

グループの中心である三和シヤッター工業と国内子会社の業績は、売上高2,786億円（前期比4.9%増）、営業利益284.8億円（同1.1%増）を予想している。売上高は、工場や倉庫建設などによる数量増及び売価転嫁で増収を見込む。営業利益では、「2024年問題」対応でのコストアップを見込むが、適正なコスト管理、納期確保に努め、売価転嫁にも取り組むことで、増益を確保する。営業利益率は10.2%（同0.4ポイント低下）と、おおむね前期並みの水準を維持する見通しだ。

(2) 米州（ODC）

米州のODCの業績は、売上高2,250億円（前期比2.4%増）、営業利益305.3億円（同11.5%減）と、増収減益を予想している。売上高は、住宅市場の緩やかな回復と非住宅市場の堅調な需要を取り込むために、拡販策を推進することで増収を予想する。営業利益は、数量増とコスト削減効果を上回る販売価格の下落の影響により減益を見込んでいる。米州では、2023年3月期は前年のサプライチェーンの混乱によるバックログ解消に努め、物流費や人件費が上昇したが、2024年3月期はそれらのコストが下がって正常化した。2025年3月期には、設備投資で自動化を進めるなど生産性改善によって、コストダウンを計画する。一方、前期の下期からの販売価格の下落傾向が続くと見る。その結果、営業利益率は13.6%（同2.1ポイント低下）になる見込みだ。

(3) 欧州（NF）

欧州のNFの業績は、売上高1,120億円（前期比0.5%増）、営業利益35.5億円（同8.7%減）を予想している。売上高は、市場の縮小を販売施策で補い、おおむね前期並みを維持する見込みである。特に、ドイツ、イギリス、スウェーデンなどの市場状況が厳しいようだ。一方、営業利益は、数量増が見通せないなかで、ウクライナ及び中東情勢に起因する各種のコストアップが大きく、減益を予想する。営業利益率は3.2%（同0.3ポイント低下）になる見込みである。

(4) アジア

アジア事業の業績は、売上高155億円（前期比9.4%増）、営業利益4.0億円（同30.7%減）を予想している。売上高は、華東事業では販売拡大に注力し数量増を見込むことで、増収を予想する。一方、営業利益は、香港の好採算案件がなくなり、通常レベルに戻ることから減益を予想する。その結果、営業利益率は2.6%（同1.5ポイント低下）に留まる見通しだ。

（執筆：フィスコ客員アナリスト　国重希）

■Future outlook for Sanwa Holdings＜5929＞

● Earnings forecast for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025

The future of the world economy is expected to continue to be uncertain, such as the continuation of global monetary tightening policies and the expansion of geopolitical risks. Under such circumstances, the Group has set up the “Sanwa Global Vision 2030” from the fiscal year ending 2023/3, and has reached the final year of the “Mid-Term Management Plan 2024,” which started as the first one, and plans to continue promoting basic strategies.

For the fiscal year ending 2025/3, we anticipate a slight increase in sales and profit, with sales of 625,000 million yen (up 2.3% from the previous fiscal year), operating income of 62,500 million yen (down 4.4% from the same period), ordinary income of 62,000 million yen (down 4.5% from the same period), and net income attributable to parent company shareholders of 42,500 million yen (down 1.7% from the same period). In terms of sales, Japan anticipates an increase in sales due to an increase in volume and transfer of sales prices. Although the Americas will incorporate a decline in sales prices, sales are expected to increase due to an increase in volume. Europe is expected to make up for further market contraction with sales measures and secure the same level as the previous year. In terms of operating income, we anticipate the effects of volume increases in Japan and the Americas. Efforts will continue to be made to transfer sales prices in Japan, but the impact of falling sales prices is significant in the Americas. Also, costs are expected to increase in each sector, but the plan is to strive for cost reduction measures in the Americas. As a result, the operating margin is expected to be 10.0% (down 0.7 points from the same period). As for net income attributable to parent company shareholders, large extraordinary profit and loss such as the previous fiscal year is not expected for the fiscal year ending 2025/3, and a slight decrease in profit is anticipated. However, the initial earnings forecast by the company group is conservative, and we believe there is a high possibility that it will eventually land above expectations.

The earnings forecasts for each sector are as follows.

(1) Japan

The performance of Sanwa Shutter Industries, which is the center of the Group, and its domestic subsidiaries are forecast to be sales of 278.6 billion yen (up 4.9% from the previous fiscal year) and operating profit of 28.48 billion yen (up 1.1% from the same period). Sales are expected to increase due to volume increases due to factory and warehouse construction, etc., and sales price transfer. In terms of operating income, we anticipate cost increases in response to the “2024 issue,” but we will secure an increase in profit by striving for proper cost management, securing delivery dates, and working on sales price transfer. The operating profit margin is 10.2% (down 0.4 points from the same period), and it is expected that it will generally maintain the same level as the previous fiscal year.

(2) The Americas (ODC)

The financial results of ODC in the Americas are forecast to increase and decrease in sales, with sales of 225 billion yen (up 2.4% from the previous fiscal year) and operating income of 30.53 billion yen (down 11.5% from the same period). Sales are predicted to increase by promoting sales expansion measures in order to capture the gradual recovery of the housing market and steady demand in the non-residential market. Operating profit is expected to decline due to the effects of volume increases and sales price declines that exceed cost reduction effects. In the Americas, in the fiscal year ending 2023/3, efforts were made to resolve the backlog due to supply chain disruptions in the previous year, and logistics costs and labor costs rose, but in the 2024/3 fiscal year, those costs fell and normalized. For the fiscal year ending 2025/3, we plan to reduce costs by improving productivity, such as advancing automation through capital investment. Meanwhile, the downward trend in sales prices from the second half of the previous fiscal year is expected to continue. As a result, the operating margin is expected to be 13.6% (down 2.1 points from the same period).

(3) Europe (NF)

European NF's performance is forecast to be 112 billion yen (up 0.5% from the previous fiscal year) and operating profit of 3.55 billion yen (down 8.7% from the same period). Sales are expected to generally maintain the same level as the previous fiscal year by compensating for the contraction in the market with sales measures. In particular, market conditions in Germany, England, Sweden, etc. seem severe. Meanwhile, while volume increases are not foreseeable in operating income, various cost increases due to the situation in Ukraine and the Middle East are large, and profit declines are expected. The operating profit margin is expected to be 3.2% (down 0.3 points from the same period).

(4) Asia

The results of the Asian business are forecast to be sales of 15.5 billion yen (up 9.4% from the previous fiscal year) and operating profit of 400 million yen (down 30.7% from the same period). Sales are predicted to increase by focusing on sales expansion and anticipating volume increases in the East China business. Meanwhile, operating profit is predicted to decline since profitable projects in Hong Kong disappear and return to normal levels. As a result, the operating margin is expected to remain at 2.6% (down 1.5 points from the same period).

(Written by FISCO Visiting Analyst Shigeki Kuni)

The translation is provided by third-party software.

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三和ＨＤ Research Memo（7）：2025年3月期は減益予想ながら、中計目標を超える利益を確保

Sanwa HD Research Memo (7): Although a decrease in profit is expected for the fiscal year ending in March 2025, the company will secure profits that exceed its medium-term target.

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