Three points to watch for in the afternoon session: European political uncertainty, futures selling, and temporary plunge below 38,000 yen.

Fisco Japan · Jun 17 11:37

17日の後場の取引では以下の3つのポイントに注目したい。

・日経平均は大幅反落、欧州政治不安と先物売りで一時38000円を割り込む

・ドル・円は伸び悩み、米金利に追随

・値下り寄与トップはファーストリテ＜9983＞、同2位は東エレク＜8035＞

■日経平均は大幅反落、欧州政治不安と先物売りで一時38000円を割り込む

日経平均は大幅反落。前営業日比708.15円安（－1.82％）の38106.41円（出来高概算7億7000万株）で前場の取引を終えている。

14日の米国株式市場はまちまち。ダウ平均は57.94ドル安（－0.15％）の38589.16ドル、ナスダックは21.32ポイント高（＋0.12％）の17688.88、S&P500は2.14ポイント安（－0.04％）の5431.60で取引を終了した。利下げ期待を受けた買いが後退し、寄り付き後、下落。6月ミシガン大消費者信頼感指数が予想以上に落ち込んだため消費減速への懸念が重しとなり、相場は一段安となった。金利の低下やアドビの好決算を受けた買いで、ナスダックは終盤にかけてプラス圏を回復し5日連続で過去最高値を更新。ダウも下げ幅を縮小も下げを消せずまちまちで終了した。

欧州政治不安などを受けて、東京市場は売り優勢で取引を開始した。日経平均は38440.98円で寄り付いた後は、下げ幅を拡大し一時38000円台を割り込む場面も見られた。一部では、日本銀行の金融政策決定会合の内容を見て海外投資家が、先物売りを入れたとの観測。売り一巡後は38000円台を回復したが、売り圧力の強い前場となった。

日経平均採用銘柄では、アドバンテスト＜6857＞の下げが目立ったほか、東京建物＜8804＞、住友不動産＜8830＞など不動産株が弱い。このほか、リコー＜7752＞、オリンパス＜7733＞、日本製鋼所＜5631＞、スズキ＜7269＞、レゾナック・ホールディングス＜4004＞と幅広い銘柄が売られた。

一方、米アップルの上昇などを材料に太陽誘電＜6976＞が独歩高となり年初来高値を更新。このほか、ヤマトホールディングス＜9064＞、ニチレイ＜2871＞、エーザイ＜4523＞、鹿島建設＜1812＞が買われた。なお、日経平均採用銘柄で上昇したのはわずか18銘柄に留まった。

全業種が下落したなか、鉱業、不動産業、パルプ・紙、精密機器、保険業の下げが目立った。

14日、日銀金融政策決定会合にて、国債買い入れを減らす方針を決めたが、一部投資家は、「日銀が量的引き締め（QT）に踏み切る」と捉え、先物売りを仕掛けたようだ。植田和男日銀総裁は、記者会見にて、「今回の国債買い入れの減額がQTであるかどうか」と問われた際、「金融政策的な色彩は無しか、極めて最小化させたうえで運営していきたい」と発言。QTではないことを示唆したものの、「日銀は金融緩和から金融引き締めに転換した」と誤解した可能性がある。コミュニケーションミスというよりは、捉え方の問題な気はするが、欧州政治不安が強まっていたタイミングだったことも重なり下げ幅が拡大したと考える。後場は、いったん下げ止まりそうな気はするが、欧州投資家が参加すると見られる14時頃辺りの指数一段安には警戒したい。

■ドル・円は伸び悩み、米金利に追随

17日午前の東京市場でドル・円は伸び悩み、157円29銭から157円66銭まで上昇後に失速した。米10年債利回りの上昇は一服し、ドル買いはいったん収束したもよう。一方、日経平均株価は大幅安となり、リスク回避の円買いが下押し圧力となった。

ここまでの取引レンジは、ドル・円は157円29銭から157円66銭、ユーロ・円は168円33銭から168円74銭、ユーロ・ドルは1.0699ドルから1.0709ドル。

■後場のチェック銘柄

・ジンジブ＜142A＞、ＤＡＩＷＡ　ＣＹＣＬＥ＜5888＞など、6銘柄がストップ高

※一時ストップ高（気配値）を含みます

・値下り寄与トップはファーストリテ＜9983＞、同2位は東エレク＜8035＞

■経済指標・要人発言

【経済指標】

・日・4月機械受注（船舶・電力除く民需）：前月比-2.9％（予想：-3.0％、3月：+2.9％）

・中・5月鉱工業生産：前年比+5.6％（予想：+6.2％、4月：+6.7％）

・中・5月小売売上高：前年比+3.7％（予想：+3.0％、4月：+2.3％）

【要人発言】

・グールズビー米シカゴ連銀総裁

「利下げが可能かどうかはインフレ動向で決定」

「不法移民、修正などで雇用統計への依存を減らしている」

＜国内＞

・特になし

＜海外＞

・特になし

In the afternoon of the 17th, there are three points worth noting in the trading.

・The Nikkei average fell sharply, temporarily falling below 38,000 yen due to European political instability and futures selling.

・The USD/JPY is sluggish, following the US interest rates.

・The top contributors to the decline are Fast Retailing <9983> and Toshiba Corp. <8035>.

■The Nikkei average fell sharply, temporarily falling below 38,000 yen due to European political instability and futures selling.

The Nikkei average fell significantly. It ended the morning session at 38,106.41 yen (volume estimated at 770 million shares), down 708.15 yen (-1.82%) from the previous trading day.

The U.S. stock market was mixed on the 14th. The Dow Jones fell 57.94 points (-0.15%) to 38,589.16, the Nasdaq rose 21.32 points (+0.12%) to 17,688.88, and the S&P500 ended trading at 5,431.60, down 2.14 points (-0.04%). Buyers' expectations of rate cuts waned, causing a drop after the opening. Concerns about a slowdown in consumption increased as the June Michigan Consumer Confidence Index fell more than expected, pushing down the market. Thanks to the decline in interest rates and Adobe's good earnings, the Nasdaq rallied in the late stages to update its all-time high for the fifth consecutive day. The Dow also narrowed its decline, but failed to erase its decline and ended mixed.

The Tokyo market started trading on a sell-off due to concerns such as European political instability. The Nikkei average started at 38,440.98 yen and at one point fell below 38,000 yen, expanding its decline. In some cases, foreign investors were observed to have put in futures sales after seeing the content of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting. After the first wave of selling, it recovered to the 38,000 yen level, but the morning session was still dominated by selling pressure.

In the Nikkei average adoption stocks, Advantest <6857>'s decline was noticeable, as well as real estate stocks such as Tokyo Tatemono <8804> and Sumitomo Realty <8830>. In addition, a wide range of stocks, such as Ricoh <7752>, Olympus <7733>, Nippon Steel <5631>, Suzuki <7269>, and resonac holdings <4004>, were sold.

Meanwhile, Solar Edge <6976> became the sole riser on the adoption of US Apple and updated its all-time high for the year. In addition, Yamato Holdings <9064>, Nichirei <2871>, Eisai <4523>, and Kajima <1812> were bought. Only 18 stocks rose among the Nikkei average adoption stocks.

In the midst of a decline in all industries, the decline in mining, real estate, pulp and paper, precision equipment, and insurance industries was noticeable.

At the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting on the 14th, the bank decided to reduce purchases of government bonds, but some investors appear to have initiated futures sales, believing that the bank would embark on quantitative tightening (QT). At the press conference, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said, in response to a question of whether the reduction in government bond purchases represents QT, that "there is no monetary policy element involved, and we want to operate it while minimizing it." While he suggested that it was not QT, there is a possibility that some people misunderstood that the Bank of Japan had transitioned from monetary easing to monetary tightening. Although it seems to be a problem of interpretation rather than miscommunication, the timing of the European political unrest also contributed to the expansion of the decline. In the afternoon, although it seems that the decline will stop for a while, we need to be cautious about the index's significant decline around 2:00 p.m., when European investors are expected to participate.

■The USD/JPY is sluggish, following the US interest rates.

On the morning of the 17th in the Tokyo market, the USD/JPY was sluggish, rising from 157.29 yen to 157.66 yen and then losing momentum. The rise in the yield on US 10-year bonds has subsided and it seems that dollar buying has temporarily ceased. On the other hand, the Nikkei average stock price has fallen significantly, with risk-averse yen buying putting downward pressure on it.

The trading range so far has been USD/JPY 157.29 yen to 157.66 yen, EUR/JPY 168.33 yen to 168.74 yen, and EUR/USD 1.0699 dollars to 1.0709 dollars.

Check stocks for the afternoon session

・6 stocks including Jingzhibo <142A> and DAIWA Cycle <5888> hit the daily limit.

*Includes temporary stopper (indicated price)

・The top contributors to the decline are Fast Retailing <9983> and Toshiba Corp. <8035>.

Economic indicators and remarks by important people

[Economic indicators]

・Machinery orders for Japan in April (excluding ships and electrical utilities): -2.9% MoM (estimate: -3.0%, March: +2.9%).

・Mining and industrial production for China in May: +5.6% YoY (estimate: +6.2%, April: +6.7%).

・Retail sales for China in May: +3.7% YoY (estimate: +3.0%, April: +2.3%).

[Important Person's Remarks]

・Goolsbee, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

・"Whether a rate cut is possible depends on the inflation trend."

・"Reducing reliance on employment statistics through illegal immigration and amendments."

Not applicable.

The translation is provided by third-party software.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.

後場に注目すべき3つのポイント～欧州政治不安と先物売りで一時38000円を割り込む

Three points to watch for in the afternoon session: European political uncertainty, futures selling, and temporary plunge below 38,000 yen.

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