研发与发行能力提升或带来产品成功率提升，储备游戏有望继续驱动增长公司《铃兰之剑》的良好表现，和《出发吧麦芬》的亮眼表现，或体现出经过多年研发投入和项目经验积累，公司自研能力及对用户需求的理解持续提升，TapTap 原联合创始人黄希威回归公司负责发行业务，也有望进一步提升公司发行能力，公司自研业务或开启正向循环，TapTap 与自研游戏的飞轮效应或开始显现。此外，公司后续储备产品还包括《心动小镇》《伊瑟·重启日》《出发吧麦芬》（日韩服）《铃兰之剑》（日韩服），有望继续驱动公司业绩增长。“Let's Go Muffin” performed well and is expected to drive rapid growth in performance and maintain a “buy” rating
The company's self-developed adventure mobile game “Let's Go Muffin” was launched in Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan on January 24. Since its launch, it has basically maintained the top 10 iOS bestsellers in Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan. According to point-point data forecasts, by the end of May, “Let's Go Muffin” had revenue of RMB 460 million in Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan. Since the launch of the “Let's Go Muffin” national service on May 15, the iOS bestseller list continued to rise, ranking 4th, after the top three games of “DNF Mobile Game”, “Wang Zhe Rongyao”, and “Peace Elite”. As of June 14, “Let's Go Muffin” basically remained in the top 10 best sellers. According to GameLook's forecast, the “Let's Go Muffin” national service sold about 300 million yuan in May.
Based on the impressive performance of “Let's Go Muffin” and expectations for subsequent reserve games, we have raised the company's profit forecast. The company's net profit for 2024-2026 is 7.83/11.37/12.46 billion yuan (previous value was 5.62/6.74/7.88) billion yuan, corresponding EPS was 1.6/2.4/2.6 yuan, respectively, and the PE corresponding to the current stock price is 11.6/8.0/7.3 times, respectively. We are optimistic about the performance of “Let's Go Muffin” and the growth of TapTap to maintain the “Buy” rating.
Increased R&D and distribution capabilities or increased product success rates. Reserve games are expected to continue to drive the good performance of the company's “Sword of the Suzuran” and “Let's Go Muffin”, or show that after years of R&D investment and project experience, the company's self-research capabilities and understanding of user needs continue to improve. Huang Xiwei, the former co-founder of TapTap, returned to the company to take charge of the distribution business, and it is expected that the company's self-developed business will start a positive cycle, and the flywheel effect of TapTap and self-developed games may begin to show. In addition, the company's subsequent reserve products include “Heartfelt Town”, “Ether Restart Day”, “Let's Go Muffin” (Japanese Hanbok), and “Sword of the Suzuran” (Japanese Hanbok), which are expected to continue to drive the company's performance growth.
TapTap traffic and users continue to grow, and profits may accelerate the release of 2024H1's multiple TapTap exclusive games and blockbuster games to drive further growth in platform traffic and users.
TapTap's exclusive rhythm music game “Phigros” has been downloaded over 30 million times on the TapTap platform, and “Happy Fishing Master”, which uses TapTap as the main Android advertising channel, has been downloaded more than 12 million on the TapTap platform, driving TapTap to reach 13 places in the iOS free app list in April, a record high. With the steady distribution of game versions, the increase in the number of new games has led to an increase in the demand for advertising investment. TapTap's position as a zero-share game channel in game distribution may continue to rise, driving rapid growth in platform revenue and accelerating profit release.
Risk warning: New game launch performance falls short of expectations, TapTap's revenue growth falls short of expectations, etc.
