This week's important schedule overview

• Several Fed officials have spoken out intensively.

After the release of the dot plot, which predicted only one rate cut in 2024, multiple Fed officials will speak out, including Lisa Cook, Cugler, Barkin, Harker, Collins, Logan, Muzalema, and Gursby.

Market expects Fed officials to continue their "old tune", and align with Powell's press conference, which is a "good data" for May CPI, but more data is needed to show that inflation is returning to the 2% target, and the possibility of a rate cut in September cannot be ruled out, continued rely on data, etc.

• The expected interest rate cut is still uncertain, and "terrible data" is coming.

The market's expected interest rate cut by the Fed may still swing in two directions. If the retail sales data scheduled to be released at 20:30 Beijing time on Tuesday show that consumer spending accelerated in May, it may destroy the current optimism. The market generally expects that after a slight decline a month ago, U.S. retail sales in May will increase by 0.3% month-on-month, highlighting consumers' resilience.

• China's LPR for June is announced.

After a 0.25 percentage point cut in LPR for more than 5 years in February, LPR has remained unchanged for the third consecutive month. Industry analysts believe that the policy interest rate will remain stable in the short term, but deposit rate cuts have opened up downward space for subsequent LPR quotes.

Xiong Yuan, chief economist of Guosheng Securities, believes that based on the May credit data, the current economic downturn pressure still exists. The policy focus has shifted to stabilizing real estate, stabilizing demand, and promoting reform. Leveraging up and stabilizing real estate is the key. Specific to the monetary side, easing is still the general direction, and it is highly probable that the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates will be lowered.

• The National Bureau of Statistics will release various economic data.

The National Bureau of Statistics will release China's industrial added value, fixed asset investment, and total retail sales of consumer goods from January to May. Many institutions predict that as the basic fundamentals continue to recover, consumption growth is expected to accelerate, manufacturing investment will maintain its resilience, and industrial growth may fall back.

Li Chao, chief economist of Zheshang Securities, predicts that in May, the total retail sales of social consumer goods will increase by 4.5% year-on-year, an increase of 2.2 percentage points from the previous month. Based on the high base last year, the domestic tourism market during the May Day holiday in 2024 is still showing a stable and upward trend. During the holiday period, the travel data maintained a high degree of prosperity, and the retail and catering sales were impressive. The consumption with high social attributes such as catering is expected to continue to recover.

• US stocks closed early on Wednesday for the June holiday.

June 17 Monday.

Keywords: scale industrial added value, total retail sales of consumer goods, New York Fed Manufacturing Index.

On Monday, in terms of economic data, the United States will release the June New York Fed Manufacturing Index; China will release the scale of industrial added value for May, the total retail sales of consumer goods for May, the fixed assets of urban areas since the beginning of this year, and the urban survey unemployment rate for May.

In terms of financial and economic events, the National Bureau of Statistics will release a monthly report on the sales prices of residential buildings in 70 large and medium-sized cities; the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the operation of the national economy.

Regarding financial reports,$Lennar Corp (LEN.US)$The financial report will be released after market close on that day.

In terms of new stocks, US stocks $Kairos Pharma (KAPA.US)$will be listed soon.

June 18 Tuesday.

Keywords: retail sales rate; Federal Reserve Lisa Cook, Balkin, Collins, Hake. In terms of economic data, the US retail sales rate for May, industrial output for May, and commercial inventory for April are about to be released on Tuesday. In terms of financial events, Lisa Cook, director of the Federal Reserve Board, Richmond Federal Reserve President Balkin, Boston Federal Reserve President Collins, and Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Hake will give speeches one after another. $Wuhan Organic (02881.HK)$ will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange; US stocks $Nova Minerals Ltd. (NVA.US)$, $Flag Ship Acquisition Corp. (FSHPU.US)$ is about to be listed. Wednesday, June 19. Keywords: Bank of Japan meeting minutes; Federal Reserve Kugler, Musalem, Gulsby, and Logan; US stock market closed. In terms of economic data on Wednesday, the US crude oil inventory as of June 14th and the June NAHB housing market index will be released. In terms of financial events, Federal Reserve member Kugler, St. Louis Federal Reserve President Musalem, Chicago Federal Reserve President Gulsby, and Dallas Federal Reserve President Logan will give speeches one after another; the Bank of Japan will announce the minutes of the monetary policy meeting in April. In addition, the US stock market is closed for one day due to June holidays. June 20, Thursday. Keywords: initial unemployment claims, EIA crude oil inventory, LPR. In terms of economic data on Thursday, the US will release the initial unemployment claims as of June 15th, the EIA crude oil inventory as of June 14th, the first-quarter current account, the annualized total number of new housing starts in May, the total number of building permits in May, and the June Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index; China will announce the one/five-year loan market quoted interest rate as of June 20. As for new stocks, on Friday, June 21, US stocks $OS Therapies (OSTX.US)$ will be listed.

In terms of economic data, the US retail sales rate for May, industrial output for May, and commercial inventory for April are about to be released on Tuesday.

In terms of financial events, Lisa Cook, director of the Federal Reserve Board, Richmond Federal Reserve President Balkin, Boston Federal Reserve President Collins, and Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Hake will give speeches one after another.

Regarding IPOs,$WUHAN YOUJI (02881.HK)$will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange; US stocks$Nova Minerals Ltd. (NVA.US)$, $Flag Ship Acquisition Corp. (FSHPU.US)$will be listed soon.

Wednesday, June 19.

Keywords: Bank of Japan meeting minutes; Federal Reserve Kugler, Musalem, Gulsby, and Logan; US stock market closed. In terms of economic data on Wednesday, the US crude oil inventory as of June 14th and the June NAHB housing market index will be released. In terms of financial events, Federal Reserve member Kugler, St. Louis Federal Reserve President Musalem, Chicago Federal Reserve President Gulsby, and Dallas Federal Reserve President Logan will give speeches one after another; the Bank of Japan will announce the minutes of the monetary policy meeting in April. In addition, the US stock market is closed for one day due to June holidays.

In terms of economic data on Thursday, the US will release the initial unemployment claims as of June 15th, the EIA crude oil inventory as of June 14th, the first-quarter current account, the annualized total number of new housing starts in May, the total number of building permits in May, and the June Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index; China will announce the one/five-year loan market quoted interest rate as of June 20.

In terms of financial events, Federal Reserve member Kugler, St. Louis Federal Reserve President Musalem, Chicago Federal Reserve President Gulsby, and Dallas Federal Reserve President Logan will give speeches one after another; the Bank of Japan will announce the minutes of the monetary policy meeting in April.

In addition, the US stock market is closed for one day due to June holidays.

June 20, Thursday.

Keywords: initial unemployment claims, EIA crude oil inventory, LPR. In terms of economic data on Thursday, the US will release the initial unemployment claims as of June 15th, the EIA crude oil inventory as of June 14th, the first-quarter current account, the annualized total number of new housing starts in May, the total number of building permits in May, and the June Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index; China will announce the one/five-year loan market quoted interest rate as of June 20.

As for new stocks, on Friday, June 21, US stocks $OS Therapies (OSTX.US)$ will be listed.

Regarding financial reports,$Accenture (ACN.US)$The financial report will be released before the market opens on that day.

In terms of new stocks, US stocks $OS Therapies (OSTX.US)$June 21, Friday.

Friday, June 21st.

Keywords: Annualized total sales of completed houses, Leading indicators of consultation meeting monthly rate.

On Friday, in terms of economic data, the USA will release the initial June S&P Global manufacturing PMI, the initial June S&P Global services PMI, May Leading Indicators of Consultation Meeting monthly rate, May annualized total sales of existing homes, and EIA natural gas inventories as of June 14th. Hong Kong, China will release May comprehensive CPI annual rate.

In terms of financial events, 2024 FOMC voting committee member, Richmond Fed Chair Barkin will give a speech on economic outlook.

Wishing Mooers a successful week of investment!

Editor/tolk