The Puma Biotechnology, Inc. (NASDAQ:PBYI) share price has fared very poorly over the last month, falling by a substantial 33%. Instead of being rewarded, shareholders who have already held through the last twelve months are now sitting on a 12% share price drop.
After such a large drop in price, given about half the companies in the United States have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") above 17x, you may consider Puma Biotechnology as an attractive investment with its 9.8x P/E ratio. However, the P/E might be low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
Recent times have been pleasing for Puma Biotechnology as its earnings have risen in spite of the market's earnings going into reverse. It might be that many expect the strong earnings performance to degrade substantially, possibly more than the market, which has repressed the P/E. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's out of favour.
Does Growth Match The Low P/E?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should underperform the market for P/E ratios like Puma Biotechnology's to be considered reasonable.
If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 208%. However, the latest three year period hasn't been as great in aggregate as it didn't manage to provide any growth at all. So it appears to us that the company has had a mixed result in terms of growing earnings over that time.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the two analysts covering the company suggest earnings growth is heading into negative territory, declining 14% each year over the next three years. That's not great when the rest of the market is expected to grow by 9.9% per year.
In light of this, it's understandable that Puma Biotechnology's P/E would sit below the majority of other companies. Nonetheless, there's no guarantee the P/E has reached a floor yet with earnings going in reverse. Even just maintaining these prices could be difficult to achieve as the weak outlook is weighing down the shares.
The Final Word
Puma Biotechnology's P/E has taken a tumble along with its share price. While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.
We've established that Puma Biotechnology maintains its low P/E on the weakness of its forecast for sliding earnings, as expected. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in earnings isn't great enough to justify a higher P/E ratio. Unless these conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.
Having said that, be aware Puma Biotechnology is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis, and 1 of those shouldn't be ignored.
Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than Puma Biotechnology. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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