Three points to watch for in next week's market: Publication of minutes from the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting, U.S. retail sales figures, and speeches by Federal Reserve officials.

Fisco Japan · Jun 15 17:38

■株式相場見通し

予想レンジ：上限39000円－下限38000円

今週末14日の米国株式市場はまちまち。ダウ平均は前日比57.94ドル安（－0.15％）の38589.16ドル、ナスダックは21.32ポイント高（＋0.12％）の17688.88、S&P500は2.14ポイント安（－0.04％）の5431.60で取引を終了した。大証ナイト・セッションの日経225先物は、通常取引終値比380円安の38460円で取引を終えた。

14日の寄付きで算出された6月限先物・オプション特別清算指数（SQ値）は38535.35円（速報値）となり、この日の日経平均安値は38554.75円と一度もSQ値を下回らなかったことから「幻のSQ値」となった。「幻のSQ値」はさほど珍しくはないが、心理的には多少ポジティブな要因となろう。

もっとも、日経平均は、38700円水準の25日移動平均線と39000円水準の75日移動平均線を中心とした価格帯での小動きが継続。週間ベースでの上下のレンジは781円に留まった。週末こそSQ値算出に絡んだ売買が入ったことでプライム市場の売買代金は5兆円台まで膨らんだが、7日から13日まで5営業日連続で4兆円割れと薄商いが続いている。「閑散に売り無し」という格言通りの地合いとも言えるが、ナスダックやS&P500が連日で史上最高値を更新する一方、海外投資家が様子見姿勢を強めているため日経平均の方向感は乏しい。また、金利上昇局面で相対的に強含んでいたTOPIXも25日移動平均線でのもみ合いとなっていることで、こちらも横ばい推移。日本のほとんどが梅雨入り前ではあるが、市場は早くも「夏枯れ相場」入りと見ていた方が良さそうだ。

一方、スタンダード市場の名村造船所＜7014＞や伊勢化学工業＜4107＞、グロース市場のカバー＜5253＞、クオリプス＜4894＞など中小型株の一角には、個人投資家とみられる投資資金が流入しており、大型株が名を連ねる東証全体の売買代金ランキングに中小型株が顔を出すケースが増えている。大型株が動かないのであれば、中小型株を手掛けるという相場付きは、まさに「夏枯れ」と言えよう。来週も目立った売買材料が予定されていないことから中小型株物色の強い相場展開は今しばらく続くと想定する。

■為替市場見通し

来週の底堅い値動きか。米国のインフレ率は低下しているものの、米連邦準備制度理事会（FRB)は引き締め的な政策方針を維持した。従来予想では利下げは年内3回となっていたが、今回の見通しでは1回にとどまっており、ドルは売りづらい展開が続く。欧州中央銀行（ECB）の利下げサイクル入りやフランス政局の不透明感もドルを支える要因となろう。

一方、日本銀行は6月13-14日開催の金融政策決定会合で政策金利の据え置きを決めたが、次回の政策決定会合で今後1-2年の国債買入れ減額について具体的な計画を策定することを発表した。日銀による年内追加利上げの可能性は消えていないため、新たな円売り材料が提供されない場合、リスク選好的なドル買い・円売りが一段と拡大する可能性は低いとみられる。

■来週の注目スケジュール

6月17日(月)：コア機械受注(4月)、中・新築住宅価格(5月)、中・中古住宅価格(5月)、中・鉱工業生産(5月)、中・小売売上高(5月)、中・不動産投資(5月)、米・ニューヨーク連銀製造業景気指数(6月)、米・フィラデルフィア連銀総裁が講演など

6月18日(火)：豪・オーストラリア準備銀行(中央銀行)が政策金利発表、独・ZEW期待指数(6月)、米・小売売上高(5月)、米・リッチモンド連銀総裁など複数のFRB要人が発言機会など

6月19日(水)：日銀政策委員会・金融政策決定会合議事要旨(4月25・26日分)、訪日外客数(推計値)(5月)、英・消費者物価コア指数(5月)、欧・ユーロ圏経常収支(4月)、ブ・ブラジル中央銀行が政策金利(セリック金利)発表、米・株式市場は祝日のため休場(奴隷解放記念日「ジューンティーンス」)など

6月20日(木)：NZ・GDP速報(1-3月)、スイス・中央銀行が政策金利発表、英・イングランド銀行(英中央銀行)が政策金利発表、米・住宅着工件数(5月)、米・住宅建設許可件数(5月)、米・フィラデルフィア連銀製造業景況指数(6月)、米・リッチモンド連銀総裁が講演、など

6月21日(金)：消費者物価コア指数(5月)、印独欧英米・製造業／サービス業／総合PMI(6月)、米・景気先行指数(5月)など

Stock market outlook.

Expected range: Upper limit of 39,000 yen - lower limit of 38,000 yen.

On the US stock market on the weekend of the 14th, the Dow was down 57.94 points (-0.15%) from the previous day to close at 38,589.16 yen, the Nasdaq was up 21.32 points (+0.12%) to 17,688.88, and the S&P 500 was down 2.14 points (-0.04%) to 5,431.60. The Nikkei 225 futures for the OSE night session closed trading at 38,460 yen, 380 yen lower than the regular trading closing price.

The June futures and options special clearing index (SQ value) for the June limit calculated on the morning of the 14th was 38,535.35 yen (preliminary value), and the lowest price of the day's Nikkei average did not fall below the SQ value even once, making it a "phantom SQ value." Although not particularly rare, it may be a somewhat positive factor psychologically. However, the Nikkei average has been moving in a narrow range centered on the 25-day moving average around 38,700 yen and the 75-day moving average around 39,000 yen. Although the trading volume in the prime market expanded to the 5 trillion yen level due to trading related to SQ value calculation, it has continued to be thin trading, with 4 trillion yen or less for 5 consecutive business days from the 7th to the 13th. It can be said that the market is in a situation where there is "no selling in the desolate area," but while the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 are setting all-time highs day after day, the direction of the Nikkei average is weak due to overseas investors increasingly taking a wait-and-see attitude. In addition, TOPIX, which had relatively strong performance in the rising interest rate phase, is also in a sideways trend due to the struggle with the 25-day moving average, and although most of Japan has not yet entered the rainy season, it is probably best to assume that the market has already entered the "summer doldrums."

Meanwhile, some small and mid-cap stocks, such as Namura Shipbuilding Co. (7014) and Ise Chemical Industry Co. (4107) on the Standard market, and Cover (5253) and Qualips (4894) on the Growth market, have seen individual investor funds flow in, and there have been more cases where small and mid-cap stocks have appeared in the trading volume rankings for the entire TSE, which includes the large-cap stocks. If large-cap stocks do not move much, it can be said that the market for small and mid-cap stocks is certainly in the "summer doldrums". It is assumed that the market trend of actively seeking small and mid-cap stocks will continue for a while, as there are no particularly noticeable trading materials scheduled for next week.

In the foreign exchange market, it is expected to have a steady price movement next week. Although the US inflation rate is declining, the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) is maintaining a tightening policy. Previously, it was expected that the interest rate would be lowered three times this year, but according to the latest outlook, it will be lowered only once, making it difficult to sell the dollar. The ECB's interest rate cuts and the uncertainty surrounding the French political situation are expected to be factors supporting the dollar. On the other hand, although the Bank of Japan decided to leave the policy interest rate unchanged at its monetary policy meeting on June 13-14, it announced that it would formulate concrete plans for reducing purchases of government bonds for the next 1-2 years at the next policy decision-making meeting. Since the possibility of additional interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan within this year has not disappeared, it is unlikely that the risk preference-oriented buying of dollars and selling of yen will expand further unless new selling materials on the yen arise.

The schedule to watch next week:

Will likely have a steady price movement next week. Although the US inflation rate is declining, the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) is maintaining a tightening policy. Previously, it was expected that the interest rate would be lowered three times this year, but according to the latest outlook, it will be lowered only once, making it difficult to sell the dollar. The ECB's interest rate cuts and the uncertainty surrounding the French political situation are expected to be factors supporting the dollar.

On the other hand, although the Bank of Japan decided to leave the policy interest rate unchanged at its monetary policy meeting on June 13-14, it announced that it would formulate concrete plans for reducing purchases of government bonds for the next 1-2 years at the next policy decision-making meeting. Since the possibility of additional interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan within this year has not disappeared, it is unlikely that the risk preference-oriented buying of dollars and selling of yen will expand further unless new selling materials on the yen arise.

Schedule to watch next week:

June 17th (Monday): Core machinery orders (April), intermediate/new housing prices (May), existing home prices (May), mineral industrial production (May), retail sales (May), real estate investment (May), New York Fed manufacturing economy index (June), Philadelphia Fed President speech, etc.

June 18th (Tuesday): Australian Reserve Bank central bank announces policy interest rate, German ZEW expectation index (June), retail sales (May), Richmond Fed President speech, etc.

June 19 (Wed): BOJ Policy Committee and Financial Policy Meeting Minutes (Apr 25-26), Estimated Number of Visiting Foreigners to Japan (May), UK Consumer Price Core Index (May), Eurozone Current Account Balance (Apr), Brazilian Central Bank Policy Interest Rate (Selic Interest Rate) Announcement, and U.S. stock market closed for a holiday (Juneteenth, emancipation day for slaves), etc.

June 20 (Thu): NZ GDP Preliminary Report (Q1), Swiss National Bank Policy Interest Rate Announcement, Bank of England Policy Interest Rate Announcement, U.S. Housing Starts (May), U.S. Residential Construction Permits (May), Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Jun), Speech by Richmond Fed President, etc.

June 21 (Fri): Consumer Price Core Index (May), Manufacturing/Service/Composite PMI for India, Germany, Europe, UK, and US (Jun), U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Index (May), etc.

The translation is provided by third-party software.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.

来週の相場で注目すべき3つのポイント：日銀金融政策決定会合議事要旨公表、米小売売上高、米FRB要人発言機会

Three points to watch for in next week's market: Publication of minutes from the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting, U.S. retail sales figures, and speeches by Federal Reserve officials.

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