Source: Caixin.
Author: Xiaoxiang. In 23, the company's overall sales volume was 18,000 kiloliters, with a YoY increase of 28.10%, showing significant growth. In terms of product structure, the operating income of products worth 10-30 billion yuan was 401/1288/60 million yuan, respectively.

U.S. economic data is setting the groundwork for an early rate cut, but Fed officials continue to be hawkish, a phenomenon that has become increasingly apparent at the macro level in the United States in recent weeks. And this phenomenon seems to persist after this week's Fed rate decision...

Fed officials, who ended more than a week of silence before the policy meeting, delivered the first public speeches after the interest rate decision on Friday. From the perspective of the first two Fed officials to speak, Cleveland Fed Chair Mester and Chicago Fed Chair Bullard, these two officials with vastly different positions within the Fed revealed similar information: More positive inflation data needs to be seen before interest rate cuts can be initiated!

Mester completed her final rate meeting tour.

Cleveland Fed Chair Mester said on Friday that although the latest data was encouraging, she still believed there was an upside risk to U.S. inflation.

On the same day, Mester pointed out in an interview that the latest median in the Fed policy makers' dot plot -- to cut rates only once this year -- was "quite close" to her own outlook for the economy.

"I think the risk of inflation is still to the upside. I think the labor market risk is two-sided," Mester said.

The outgoing Cleveland Fed President said the lower-than-expected U.S. CPI data for May, released earlier this week, was a "gift," but she added that she hoped to see a few more similar reports before a real rate cut.

Data released by the US Department of Labor on Wednesday showed that both overall and core CPI YoY and MoM in May were lower than expected. Specifically, US May CPI was flat MoM, with an expected increase of 0.1%; It rose 3.3% YoY, lower than the estimated 3.4%; Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2% MoM, with an expected increase of 0.3%; Core CPI rose 3.4% YoY, with an estimated 3.5%.

"We've made pretty good progress in inflation over the past two years. But inflation is still high," Mester said. "There's more work to be done on inflation so that people believe that it is on a downward path to 2%."

Mester said she did not update her forecast after the CPI data was released several hours before the interest rate decision.

"Given all the progress we've made on inflation, I think we do need to see more data points that really tell us, 'OK, we are really confident that inflation is on this downward path and we can start to reduce policy restriction,'" she said.

Mester also said she expects long-term interest rates to be 3 percent. According to the latest dot plot on rates, after a slight increase in March, the median forecast for long-term rates by Fed officials in June was raised to 2.8%, suggesting they do not expect rates to return to pre-epidemic lows.

After serving as Cleveland Fed chair for a full decade, Mester will officially step down at the end of this month. She will be succeeded by Beth Hammack, a senior banker at Goldman Sachs.

In addition to the more hawkish Mester, dovish Fed official Chicago Fed Chair Bullard also said at another event later on Friday that May CPI was "very good," but this was only one month of data.

At an agricultural economics summit in Ankeny, Iowa, Bullard said that after this week's data showed that inflation cooled in May, he breathed a sigh of relief, adding that he still wanted to see "more months" of similar data before real interest rate cuts.

"Over the past 18 months, we've made great progress in reducing inflation. The inflation rate has fallen to its current level. If we can see more monthly indicators like inflation declines, we'll feel a lot better," Bullard said.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve kept the federal fund target range unchanged at 5.25%-5.5%. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell reiterated that any rate cut measures will wait until the Fed has more confidence that inflation is moving towards its 2% target, or sees unexpected deterioration in the labor market.

Regarding the current economic situation in the United States and the focus of the Federal Reserve, Gulzbi said that the Federal Reserve is closely monitoring the health of the economy. Currently, the US economy has shown some signs of pain, such as the rising loan delinquency rate, but has not yet reached the level associated with economic recession.

He said that if inflation continues to ease and the Federal Reserve can lower interest rates, then the Federal Reserve will be able to completely avoid an economic recession.

Editor/Jeffy