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Will Weakness in Guess?, Inc.'s (NYSE:GES) Stock Prove Temporary Given Strong Fundamentals?

Simply Wall St ·  Jun 14 23:23

It is hard to get excited after looking at Guess?'s (NYSE:GES) recent performance, when its stock has declined 18% over the past month. However, a closer look at its sound financials might cause you to think again. Given that fundamentals usually drive long-term market outcomes, the company is worth looking at. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Guess?'s ROE today.

Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company's management is utilizing the company's capital. In short, ROE shows the profit each dollar generates with respect to its shareholder investments.

How Is ROE Calculated?

Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Guess? is:

39% = US$237m ÷ US$608m (Based on the trailing twelve months to May 2024).

The 'return' is the income the business earned over the last year. That means that for every $1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated $0.39 in profit.

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

Guess?'s Earnings Growth And 39% ROE

First thing first, we like that Guess? has an impressive ROE. Secondly, even when compared to the industry average of 19% the company's ROE is quite impressive. As a result, Guess?'s exceptional 39% net income growth seen over the past five years, doesn't come as a surprise.

Next, on comparing with the industry net income growth, we found that Guess?'s growth is quite high when compared to the industry average growth of 23% in the same period, which is great to see.

past-earnings-growth
NYSE:GES Past Earnings Growth June 14th 2024

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. It's important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. What is GES worth today? The intrinsic value infographic in our free research report helps visualize whether GES is currently mispriced by the market.

Is Guess? Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

Guess? has a three-year median payout ratio of 31% (where it is retaining 69% of its income) which is not too low or not too high. So it seems that Guess? is reinvesting efficiently in a way that it sees impressive growth in its earnings (discussed above) and pays a dividend that's well covered.

Additionally, Guess? has paid dividends over a period of at least ten years which means that the company is pretty serious about sharing its profits with shareholders. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company is expected to rise to 40% over the next three years. Accordingly, the expected increase in the payout ratio explains the expected decline in the company's ROE to 24%, over the same period.

Summary

Overall, we are quite pleased with Guess?'s performance. In particular, it's great to see that the company is investing heavily into its business and along with a high rate of return, that has resulted in a sizeable growth in its earnings. If the company continues to grow its earnings the way it has, that could have a positive impact on its share price given how earnings per share influence long-term share prices. Remember, the price of a stock is also dependent on the perceived risk. Therefore investors must keep themselves informed about the risks involved before investing in any company. You can see the 3 risks we have identified for Guess? by visiting our risks dashboard for free on our platform here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
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