Global macro

• Before Friday's opening, the three major futures indices collectively fell.

• After CPI and PPI teamed up to cool down, Wall Street "doesn't believe" in the Fed! Betting on interest rate cuts twice this year.

Two rate cuts are becoming a consensus this year. In the eyes of some Wall Street analysts, the Federal Reserve's most favored inflation indicator, the Core PCE Price Index, is expected to record the smallest month-on-month increase since November. In the eyes of Wall Street analysts, the Fed's interest rate "dot plot" and core PCE forecast may be outdated. They generally believe that inflation-cooled data with similar pace in the remaining months of this year will push core PCE significantly lower than the Fed's expectations before the year, which will help support the possibility of two rate cuts this year, and the first rate cut is expected to occur from September.

• Profit and interest rate cuts will lead to continued sharp increases in the US stock market in the second half of the year, according to Morgan Stanley's prediction.

The strong start of the U.S. stock market in 2024 is expected to continue in the second half of the year, according to JPMorgan Asset Management. David Kelly's team, chief global strategist at the bank, said that despite the S&P 500's double-digit returns since January, market growth may be more steady than rapid, but the market will continue to rise in the coming months due to its solid profit base, the end of U.S. monetary tightening, and strong economic performance. They recommend investors to allocate large-cap stocks and balance their investments between value and growth stocks.

• After more than three years, Trump returned to Capitol Hill and vowed to raise tariffs to replace income taxes.

On Thursday, Trump visited Capitol Hill and held two meetings with Republicans in the House and Senate. He tried to unite the Republican Party and bridge internal divisions as the election approaches. This is Trump's first appearance on Capitol Hill in more than three years. Trump criticized U.S. aid to Ukraine and suggested raising tariffs to replace U.S. income taxes. Trump met with more than 100 business executives, including Apple CEO Cook and JPMorgan CEO Dimon, and said that if he was elected again, he would lower the corporate tax rate from 21% in his first term to 20%.

• The demand outlook is optimistic and crude oil will have its best weekly performance in over two months.

Benchmark crude oil prices will have their best weekly performance in over two months, as the market is optimistic about the demand outlook for crude oil and refined oil. Brent crude and WTI crude oil rose more than 3% this week, their best performance since April 5. OPEC insists that global oil demand will grow relatively strongly by 2024, and Goldman Sachs predicts that U.S. fuel demand will remain strong this summer.

• Ethereum etf is really coming! SEC Chairman said: expected to be approved this summer.

Gary Gensler, chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), told lawmakers that the world's second most popular digital asset, Ethereum ETF, is expected to receive final approval this summer. In a hearing of the Senate Appropriations Committee on Thursday, Greensley said, "Individual issuers are still in the process of registering. Progress is smooth." Last month, the SEC approved the relevant 19b-4 application submitted by the exchange. However, the S-1 registration form of individual issuers is still pending approval.

• The Bank of Japan maintains interest rates unchanged.

On June 14th at noon, the Bank of Japan announced that it will maintain the target for interest rates at 0-0.1%, which is in line with expectations of the market. At the same time, the Bank of Japan announced that it will reduce the amount of government bond purchases and will decide on the government bond purchase plan for the next 1-2 years at the next meeting.

Hot news

• Star technology stocks rise and fall before trading.

• Musk outlines the most ambitious plan ever: robots will bring huge profits, and market cap could reach ten Apples.

Musk said at the annual shareholder meeting that Tesla's electric truck tractor Semi could change the company's finances, and he revealed that several cars under development "will be very special". He also said that the purchase cost of the robot Optimus will be lower than that of the car, and after Tesla's mass production, it can earn $1 trillion in profit per year. He revealed that two Optimus robots are already in use at the Fremont plant in California, and from next year, there will be more than a thousand, or even several thousand, Optimus working for Tesla. Tesla's market value may be ten times that of today's most valuable global companies. At the time of publication, Tesla rose nearly 2% before the opening.$Tesla (TSLA.US)$Buffett's Apple stock is worth $169 billion, higher than 455 companies in the S&P 500.

• Buffett holds $169 billion worth of Apple stock, more than 455 S&P 500 companies.

As of the end of March this year, Berkshire Hathaway held about 790 million shares of Apple stock worth $135 billion. This means that Berkshire Hathaway's 5.1% stake in Apple is now worth $169 billion, according to financial website MarketBeat, the value of Buffett's Apple stock exceeds that of all other companies except the top 45 in the S&P 500.$Berkshire Hathaway-A (BRK.A.US)$Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway holds about 790 million shares of Apple stock worth $135 billion as of the end of March this year. This means that Berkshire Hathaway's 5.1% stake in Apple is now worth $169 billion. According to financial website MarketBeat, the value of Buffett's Apple stock exceeds that of all other companies except for the top 45 in the S&P 500.

• Apple Vision Pro headset for China has started pre-sale today, and users can book a 30-minute trial.

According to the media,$Apple (AAPL.US)$Vision Pro headset for China officially opened for pre-sale today, with a starting price of 29,999 yuan and will be launched on June 28. At the same time, Apple announced the pre-appointment demo trial of Vision Pro. From 9 a.m. today, users can make an online appointment for the Vision Pro demo trial on the Apple's official website, and experience it at nearby Apple Store retail stores from June 28 with the successful reservation, they will get about 30 minutes of demonstration experience.

• Gamestop's annual shareholder meeting was postponed due to overcrowding, and 'Roaring Cat' now holds around 9 million shares.

According to media reports, individual investor and internet celebrity 'Roaring Cat' Keith Gill updated a post on Reddit claiming that he has sold his Gamestop options position. According to the screenshot he posted, he increased his stock holdings to over $260 million, which is equivalent to about 9 million shares, more than 5 million shares from his last update. In addition, Gamestop announced on Thursday that due to a surge of shareholders flooding the live stream, the annual shareholder meeting originally scheduled for 11am Eastern Time that day will be postponed until June 17th.$GameStop (GME.US)$Adobe soared over 14% before market, Q2 revenue hit a record high, and raised its full-year performance guidance. The stock rose 14.04% to $523.16. Adobe's total Q2 revenue hit a historic high, with a year-on-year increase of 10% to $5.31 billion, exceeding market expectations of $5.29 billion; Adjusted earnings per share were $4.48, beating expectations of $4.4. In the quarter, the revenue of its main business, digital media, rose 11% year-on-year to $3.91 billion, exceeding the upper limit of the company's previous guidance range. Looking ahead, Adobe raised its full-year performance guidance, expecting adjusted earnings per share to be in the range of $18 to $18.2, and revenue to be between $21.4 billion and $21.5 billion, respectively higher than the market expectations of $18.02 and $21.46 billion.

• Adobe soared over 14% before market, Q2 revenue hit a record high, and raised its full-year performance guidance.

$Adobe (ADBE.US)$The stock rose 14.04% to $523.16. Adobe's total Q2 revenue hit a historic high, with a year-on-year increase of 10% to $5.31 billion, exceeding market expectations of $5.29 billion; Adjusted earnings per share were $4.48, beating expectations of $4.4. In the quarter, the revenue of its main business, digital media, rose 11% year-on-year to $3.91 billion, exceeding the upper limit of the company's previous guidance range. Looking ahead, Adobe raised its full-year performance guidance, expecting adjusted earnings per share to be in the range of $18 to $18.2, and revenue to be between $21.4 billion and $21.5 billion, respectively higher than the market expectations of $18.02 and $21.46 billion.

Not to be outdone, after NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun announced the latest AI chip iteration schedule on the evening of June 2nd, AMD CEO Su Zifeng also threw out an iteration roadmap during her speech on the morning of June 3rd before the COMPUTEX opened. The company will launch the MI325 X and Ryzen AI300 this year, the MI350 series in 2025, and the MI400 series in 2026.

• China concept stocks fell before market.

Bilibili rose more than 3% pre-market trading and was upgraded to "buy" by UBS, which raised its EPS estimate per share.

Reminder for US Macro Events

(All in Peking Time)

20:30 US Import Price Index MoM for May.

20:30 2024 FOMC Committee Member and Cleveland Fed President Mester will be interviewed by CNBC.

22:00 US June 1-year inflation rate expectations.

22:00 Preliminary June University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US.

02:00 the next day, 2025 FOMC Committee Member and Chicago Fed President Evans will attend a fireside chat.

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