Chow Tai ?$#@$ (01929.HK): 24FY's steady recovery in April-May was disrupted by gold prices, and wait-and-see sentiment was heavy

投资要点：

24FY 营收同增14.8%，主要经营溢利同增28.9%24FY 公司实现营收1087.13 亿港元/+14.8%，主要经营溢利121.63亿港元/+28.9%，实现毛利率22.80%/-0.8pct（经调整，下同），主要系黄金产品持续高景气度，收入增长的同时产品结构调整，毛利率略有下降。公司拟每股派发0.3 港元，全年派息率84.6%。

中国内地门店拐点明确，新店运营提质增效

24FY 中国内地实现营收896.98 亿港元/+9.9% ，毛利率22.5%/-0.8pct，主要系批发和黄金业务占比提升，销售费用率下降1.8pct至11.4%，系广告及包装物料下降。期末内地总门店数达7403 家/+143家，单店销售/单店销量分别+1.8%/-4.8%，单店销售迎来明显拐点，且客单价上移。从零售渠道来看，周大福珠宝/其他品牌/电子商务营收分别+17.4%/+11.7%/+18.8%，其中周大福珠宝的加盟店/直营店分别为5679/1724 家，带动零售值分别同增23.4%/5.8%，新开门店逐渐成熟，单店提质增效的效果明显，预期后续将持续优化单店表现。从产品品类的角度来看，珠宝镶嵌品类/黄金首饰品类/钟表三大品类营收分别同比-5.9%/+23.3%/+6.3%，黄金占比82%，景气度持续上行。

中国港澳及其他市场受益于旅客增大，营收及利润高增港澳及其他市场营收及利润高增。24FY 中国港澳及其他市场营收同增45.6%至190.15 亿港元，其中内地客流大幅修复带动零售业务+40.4%，海南免税店业绩大幅反弹带动批发业务高增+85.6%。从盈利来看，毛利率24.4%/-1.3pct，但规模效应下SG&A 占比下降，带动主要经营溢利率同增3.7pct 至8.7%。门店方面，净增门店10 家至145家，单店销售/销量分别同比高增42.4%/32.0%。从品类来看，黄金品类同比+69.4%，为主要增长推力，镶嵌品类降幅收窄。

受金价扰动观望情绪加重，24 年4 月至5 月营收承压24 年4-5 月零售值下降20.2%，其中中国内地/中国港澳及其他市场分别变动-18.8%/-29.0%，主要系金价冲高后高位震荡，消费者观望情绪加重。分地区，中国内地同店销售/销量同比-27.6%/-39.7%，珠宝镶嵌等/黄金首饰等同比-32.9%/-29.8%；中国港澳及其他市场同店销售/销量同比-32.0%/-37.3%，珠宝镶嵌等/黄金首饰等同比-31.1%/-34.6%。

盈利预测与投资建议

考虑到金价震荡下终端需求偏弱，我们下调盈利预测，预计FY2025-FY2027 公司营收为997.21/1067.84/1143.01 亿元（前值25-26FY为1039.77/1150.14 亿元），归母净利润为66.23/73.10/76.95 亿元（前值25-26FY 为91.00/103.41 亿元）。当前价格对应25/26 财年PE13/12x，维持“买入”评级。

风险提示

单店店效提升不及预期，金价波动风险，终端需求不及预期风险

Key points of investment:

24FY's revenue also increased by 14.8%, and the main operating profit increased by 28.9%. 24FY achieved revenue of HK$108.713 billion/+14.8%, and achieved a gross profit margin of 22.80%/-0.8 pct (adjusted, same below). It was mainly due to the continued boom in gold products, and product restructuring at the same time as revenue growth, and gross margin declined slightly. The company plans to pay HK$0.3 per share, with an annual dividend payout ratio of 84.6%.

The inflection point of stores in mainland China is clear, and the operation of new stores has improved quality and efficiency

24FY in mainland China achieved revenue of HK$89.698 billion/+9.9%, with a gross profit margin of 22.5% /-0.8 pct, mainly due to an increase in the share of wholesale and gold businesses, and a decrease in sales expenses of 1.8 pct to 11.4%, which is a decrease in advertising and packaging materials. At the end of the period, the total number of stores in the Mainland reached 7,403 home/+143, with single-store sales +1.8%/-4.8% respectively. Single-store sales ushered in a clear inflection point, and customer unit prices rose. Looking at retail channels, Chow Tai ?$#@$ Jewelry/other brands/e-commerce revenue was +17.4%/+11.7%/+18.8% respectively. Among them, Chow Tai ?$#@$ Jewellery had 5679/1,724 franchise/direct-run stores, which increased retail value by 23.4%/5.8% respectively. Newly opened stores gradually matured, and the effect of improving the quality and efficiency of individual stores was obvious. It is expected that individual store performance will continue to be optimized in the future. From the perspective of product categories, the revenue of the three categories of jewelry inlay category/gold jewellery/watch categories was -5.9%/+23.3%/+6.3%, respectively. Gold accounted for 82%, and the boom continued to rise.

China's Hong Kong, Macau and other markets have benefited from increased visitors, higher revenue and profits, and higher sales and profits in Hong Kong, Macau and other markets. 24FY's revenue from Hong Kong, Macau and other markets also increased by 45.6% to HK$19.015 billion. Among them, the sharp restoration of mainland passenger flow led to retail business +40.4%, while the sharp rebound in Hainan duty-free shop performance led to a high increase of +85.6% in the wholesale business. In terms of profit, the gross profit margin was 24.4% /-1.3 pct, but the share of SG&A declined due to the scale effect, driving the main operating profit margin to increase by 3.7 pct to 8.7%. In terms of stores, there was a net increase of 10 stores to 145, and single-store sales/sales volume increased by 42.4%/32.0% year-on-year respectively. In terms of categories, the gold category was +69.4% year-on-year, which was the main driving force for growth, and the decline in the inlay category narrowed.

Due to gold price disturbances, wait-and-see sentiment intensified, and retail value fell 20.2% from April to May '24. Among them, mainland China/Hong Kong, Macao and other markets changed by -18.8%/-29.0% respectively. This was mainly due to high fluctuations after the price of gold rose, and consumer wait-and-see sentiment increased. By region, same-store sales/sales volume in mainland China was -27.6%/-39.7%, jewellery/gold jewellery equivalent ratio -32.9%/-29.8%; same-store sales/sales volume in Hong Kong, Macao and other markets in China was -32.0%/-37.3%; jewellery and other markets/gold jewellery equivalent ratio was -31.1%/-34.6%.

Profit forecasting and investment advice

Considering weak terminal demand due to the fluctuation in gold prices, we lowered our profit forecast. We expect FY2025-FY2027's revenue to be 997.21/1067.84/114.301 billion yuan (previous value 25-26FY was 1039.77/115.014 billion yuan) and net profit to mother of 66.23/73.10/7.695 billion yuan (previous value FY25-26 was 91.00/10.341 billion yuan). The current price corresponds to PE13/12x in fiscal year 25/26, maintaining a “buy” rating.

Risk warning

Single-store efficiency improvements fall short of expectations, risk of gold price fluctuations, and risk of terminal demand falling short of expectations

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周大福(01929.HK)：24FY稳健复苏 4-5月受金价扰动观望情绪重

Chow Tai ?$#@$ (01929.HK): 24FY's steady recovery in April-May was disrupted by gold prices, and wait-and-see sentiment was heavy

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