Next week's important futures data and events at a glance

1. At 9:20 on June 17, the 237 billion yuan 1-year medium-term loan facility (MLF) expires today. Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Dongfang Jincheng, believes that in the context of real estate industry adjustments and economic recovery facing certain pressure, moderate interest rate cuts can play an irreplaceable role, and the mid-term loan facilitation (MLF) operating interest rate may be lowered by 20 basis points in the third quarter.

2. At 10:00 on June 17, China released data on industrial value added, social zero, fixed asset investment, and real estate for May. The previous report showed that in January-April, the residential construction area was 486.47 million square meters, a decrease of 11.4%. The new housing construction area was 235.1 million square meters, a decrease of 24.6%. Follow the year-on-year decline in real estate data and observe the impact on black futures.

3. On June 17, due to the Haji holiday, the BMD Exchange was closed for one day, and trading of Malaysian palm oil futures was suspended.

4. A number of Federal Reserve officials will deliver speeches next week, including Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Chairman Huck, Richmond Federal Reserve Chairman Barkin, Dallas Federal Reserve Chairman Logan, and Federal Reserve Governor Kugler. For the seventh time in a row, the Federal Reserve kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged in the 5.25%-5.50% range, in line with market expectations. The bitmap cuts this year's interest rate cut expectations from 3 to 1. Keep an eye out for comments from these officials on expectations of interest rate cuts.

5. 0:00 on June 18, the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) May report. Analysts said that in May, the rate of soybean processing in the US is expected to rise from a seven-month low a month ago due to some pressing plants resuming operations after seasonal shutdowns and maintenance, and profit margins have increased. According to the average estimates of 11 analysts, the amount of soybeans pressed in May was 178.35.2 million bushels.

6. At 12:30 on June 18, the Reserve Bank of Australia announced its interest rate decision. According to a Reuters survey, most respondents believe that the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.35% until September, and is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the fourth quarter (same as the May survey results).

7. On June 18, to be determined, the Brazilian Ministry of Commerce and Trade released a report on exports of agricultural and industrial products. Some industry analysts predict that the floods will cause Brazil's grain harvest to decline, and farmers may reduce export sales and keep more grain in the domestic market. Brazil's soybean exports this year are expected to be lower than last year's 101.3 million tons.

8. On June 19, the US New York Stock Exchange was closed for one day due to the June holiday. CME (CME)'s precious metals and U.S. crude oil futures contract trading ended early at 02:30 Beijing time on the 20th, and stock index futures contract trading ended early at 01:00 Beijing time on the 20th. Brent crude oil futures contract trading under the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) ended early at 01:30 Beijing time on the 20th. CBOT agricultural futures, ICE raw sugar, and cotton futures were closed for one day.

9. From June 19 to 20, the 2024 Lujiazui Forum will be held in Shanghai, and the Securities Regulatory Commission will announce capital market-related policy initiatives. On the morning of June 19, Chairman Wu Qing of the Securities Regulatory Commission will attend the opening ceremony and general meeting of the forum and deliver a speech on the theme of “Promoting World Economic Growth through High-Quality Financial Development”. On the afternoon of June 19, Fang Xinghai, Vice Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, and Qiu Yong, Chairman of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, will deliver speeches on the theme of “Technological Innovation and High-Quality Capital Market Development”.

10. At 19:00 on June 20, the Bank of England announced the interest rate decision and published the minutes of the meeting. According to a Reuters survey, the Bank of England is expected to cut interest rates in August, at least twice during the year. Yael Selfin, KPMG's chief British economist, said that despite some temporary signs of cooling in the labor market, service sector inflation remains high, and the UK Monetary Policy Committee may want to wait until the next set of forecasts and more data is released before starting to cut interest rates for the first time.

11. At 2:30 on June 21, NYMEX New York crude oil futures for July were affected by a monthly transfer. The final market transaction was completed at 2:30 on June 21, and the final electronic market transaction was completed at 5:00 a.m. on June 21.