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国泰君安证券:5月越南外部经济环境整体改善 亮眼出口推动制造业持续走强

GTJA Securities: Vietnam's external economic environment improved overall in May, with strong exports driving sustained growth in the manufacturing industry.

Zhitong Finance ·  Jun 14 14:41

In May 2024, the external economic environment of Vietnam improved overall, and under the strong drive of the manufacturing industry, the Vietnamese economy continued the positive growth trend since the beginning of the year.

According to the Zhixin Finance app, Guotai Junan Securities released a research report stating that Vietnam's economy continued its strong performance in May, highlighting its attractiveness as a global manufacturing outsourcing location. Under stable external conditions, industrial production centered on the manufacturing industry continues to exert strength, and the IIP growth rate has further increased. Looking forward, with the continuous expansion of foreign direct investment and new orders, as well as effective intervention by the Vietnamese government in the exchange rate of the Vietnamese dong, the manufacturing industry is expected to continue to drive Vietnam's high-speed sustainable development.

In May 2024, the external economic environment of Vietnam improved as a whole, and the Vietnamese economy continued its positive growth trend since the beginning of the year, driven by strong manufacturing.

The Vietnamese industrial production situation continues to improve, and the manufacturing industry is performing strongly. The domestic industrial production index (IIP) increased by 8.9% year-on-year, higher than last month's 47.4%. After a sharp decline in the fourth quarter of 2022 and negative growth in the first four months of 2023, the IIP growth rate has been continuously and rapidly increasing, which means that industrial production has become an important driving force for GDP growth in 2024.

The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the manufacturing industry has continued its recent trend of slight expansion, indicating that industrial production is continuing to recover. Vietnam's manufacturing PMI reached 50.3 in May, unchanged from the previous month, and has maintained a positive growth trend since 2024, except for February, which was slightly below the 50 boom-bust line due to the Lunar New Year holiday.

Although the Vietnamese economy has performed strongly since the beginning of the year, inflation still poses some challenges for sustainable development. In May 2024, Vietnam's inflation increased by 4.44% year-on-year, and the average inflation for the first five months of this year was about 4.03%, slightly higher than the controllable upper limit of 4.0%, but still within the government's set target range of 4.0%-4.5% for inflation in 2024.

In May, foreign direct investment in Vietnam continued to grow, highlighting its attractiveness as a global manufacturing outsourcing location. This trend has also laid a solid foundation for achieving the government's 2030 goals of industrialization and modernization. As of the end of May, the total amount of committed foreign direct investment inflows into Vietnam reached approximately US$11.07 billion, an increase of about 1.9% compared to the same period in 2023.

Vietnam's economy continued its strong performance in May, highlighting its attractiveness as a global manufacturing outsourcing location under stable external conditions and the continuous strength of industrial production centered on the manufacturing industry. Looking forward, with the continuous expansion of foreign direct investment and new orders, as well as effective intervention by the Vietnamese government in the exchange rate of the Vietnamese dong, the manufacturing industry is expected to continue to drive Vietnam's high-speed sustainable development.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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