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美股呈现“非理性繁荣”!策略师警告:短期没有上行催化剂 下半年或出现适度回调

The US stock market presents an "irrational prosperity"! Strategists warn that there is no short-term upward catalyst and there may be a moderate correction in the second half of the year.

Zhitong Finance ·  Jun 14 14:56

Verdence Capital Advisors, the investment consulting company's Chief Investment Officer Megan Horneman, stated that there is no short-term catalyst for the market going up, and there are more bearish factors.

According to the app of WiseNews, after the announcement of the US CPI and the Federal Reserve interest rate resolution this week, the US stock market continued to rise, and the market overall showed an optimistic sentiment. However, the Chief Investment Officer of Verdence Capital Advisors, Megan Horneman, remains cautious, stating that there is no short-term catalyst for the market to go up, and there are more bearish factors.

The Federal Reserve announced the dot plot after the interest rate resolution, and lowered expectations for interest rate cuts to once this year. Horneman pointed out that the Fed's adjustment of expectations was not surprising, and she stated that "the market has already absorbed too many factors of interest rate cuts." However, she expressed surprise at Fed Chairman Powell's hawkish stance during the meeting, stating that his previous dovish tone "fueled optimism for interest rate cuts this year."

"Now, we still believe that the Federal Reserve may need more consistent data to indicate that inflation has officially ended," Horneman said.

Horneman remains cautious about the near-term outlook for the market. She said that the recent rebound in the market reflected their optimistic sentiment for interest rate cuts, which was reflected in the bond market and the stock market. "But I'm worried that the market is a bit complacent about what we're going to see in the second half of this year and what they're capable of doing from a rate cut perspective."

"But I'm worried that the market is a bit complacent about what we're going to see in the second half of this year and what they're capable of doing from a rate cut perspective."

"I really can't see any potential catalysts for the market to go up, and that's the problem. That's why we're cautious about the market. I see more downside catalysts."

"You can look at it from a political perspective, what's happening in Europe now. And don't forget, we're about to have a presidential election. The market has a bit of a bubble."

Strategy Recommendations

Given the cautious outlook for the market, Horneman chose not to increase holdings in growth companies, particularly those with technology focus or in these industries, instead, focusing on value stocks in the market and increasing cash holdings in overall allocation, to take advantage of opportunities after market corrections.

Horneman said, "I think there will be a moderate correction this year, possibly in the second half of this year."

"To be honest, if you look at the small and medium-cap stocks, you will find that this area has not really participated in this round of rebound," she added, pointing out that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates due to deteriorating economic conditions, and these stocks will have the greatest rebound in the path of economic recovery.

"Therefore, if the valuation takes into account the downside risks, we can enter the market earlier, because they will rebound the most fiercely."

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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