Despite producing less than 300 million units of smart phones in the first quarter, with a year-on-year growth of 18.7%, the total shipment was 296 million units.
TrendForce said that suppliers have significantly lowered their production targets to solve the problem of serious inventory accumulation in channels compared to the first quarter of last year. Therefore, although smart phone production in the first quarter of this year was less than 3 billion units before the pandemic, there is still an apparent YoY growth of 18.7%, with a total shipment of 296 million units. As a result of the pressure from high inflation and international conflicts in consumer spending worldwide, coupled with the active production in the first quarter of some brands, channel inventory has increased and must be prioritized for adjustment. Therefore, TrendForce is not optimistic about the production forecast for the second quarter and estimates that the production quantity will decline by 5-10% compared to the previous quarter.
Looking at the market share ranking of the first quarter's production, the top six brands in the world are Samsung, Apple, Xiaomi, OPPO, Transsion, and Vivo, accounting for nearly 80% of the market share.
Samsung's total production in the first quarter was 59.5 million units, ranking first in market share. Among them, the Galaxy S24 series has benefited from the AI topic, driving hot sales and accounting for 22.5% of Q1 output, an increase of 20% compared to last year's Galaxy S23 series. Due to the A-series' overseas sales falling short of expectations, the estimated production for the second quarter will fall below 55 million units, and the quarter-on-quarter decline is expected to exceed 10%.
Apple's production performance in the first quarter declined compared to the same period last year, with sales in the Chinese market slowing down, and the production volume dropping to 47.9 million units. Corresponding to the drop, many adjustments have emerged in the supply chain for components, except for increased investment in processor chips. TrendForce estimates that the total production in the second quarter will decline by about 10% during Apple's product iteration window.
Xiaomi (including Xiaomi, Redmi, POCO) put behind the shadow of high inventory from the same period last year, with a total production in the first quarter of 41.1 million units, ranking third in global market share. Starting from the second half of 2023, the brand has been motivated by inventory replenishment incentives and increased internal policy investment in emerging markets, so its market operation strategy changed from passively reducing inventory levels to optimistic layout. However, due to the lack of significant global economic improvements and fierce competition in emerging markets, this brand is estimated to maintain the same production goal as the first quarter in the second quarter.
Oppo (including Oppo, OnePlus, Realme) produced a total of 33.8 million units in the first quarter, ranking fourth in market share. Due to intense competition with Honor in China and other emerging markets selling slightly, its YoY growth rate in the first quarter was still lower than that of other low-base-period Android brands. In the second quarter, Oppo's production goal will still be the same as that of the first quarter. In addition, as Oppo has reached a patent dispute settlement with Finnish telecommunications giant Nokia, it will return to the German market in the second half of this year.
Transsion experienced nearly a 50% YoY growth rate last year and continued the optimistic trend in the first quarter of this year. The brand's total production in the first quarter was about 29.8 million units, with a bright YoY performance increase and a market share ranking of fifth worldwide. However, due to the overly active production in the first quarter and the overlap with low-end sales markets such as Samsung, Xiaomi, and Lenovo, channel inventory began to accumulate.
Vivo (including Vivo and iQoo) shipped 21.7 million units in the first quarter, ranking sixth in market share. In the second quarter, the brand will launch the extended models of the flagship machine X100 series, and with the promotion of 618, the total production is expected to maintain the same performance as the first quarter.