Musk said that Tesla will have more than a thousand, maybe thousands of Optimus Prime robots working in factories from next year.
On June 13, local time, Tesla CEO Musk announced at the annual shareholders meeting in Austin, Texas, USA that Tesla will start "limited production" of Optimus Prime in 2025 and test humanoid robots in its own factory next year.
He predicts that Tesla will have "over a thousand, maybe thousands of operating Optimus robots" next year.
Musk said at the shareholders' meeting that Tesla's future development direction will be "exciting" and painted multiple "cakes" for shareholders, including the possibility of producing about 100 million Optimus robots each year, with Tesla making a profit of $1 trillion per year.
When it comes to autonomous driving, Musk said that Tesla's autonomous cars will be much safer than human-driven cars and will operate in a way similar to Airbnb and Uber, with the company owning some cars and customers owning others. "When you're not using your car, it will make money for you," Musk said, adding that Tesla's market cap could exceed $33 trillion in the future, ten times that of the most valuable company today.
Assuming humanoid robots will first commercialize and develop along the path of automobiles, 3C, and pan-manufacturing industries in the second half of 2025, China CITIC Securities expects that under optimistic/neutral/pessimistic assumptions, 1%/0.5%/0.2% of the total personnel demand for manufacturing industry capacity in China and the United States will correspond to 169.7/84.9/33.9 thousand humanoid robots in 2030, respectively.
In terms of market space, under neutral assumptions, it is estimated that in 2026/2027/2028/2029/2030, the market space for humanoid robots will correspond to 530/2450/6370/10860/15100 million yuan, respectively.
IDC predicts that China's manufacturing industry robot density will be about 650/10,000 people by 2027, and China's industrial robot product market spending will increase to about US$16 billion by 2027.
CITIC Securities released a research report stating that in the trend of robots becoming universal, the algorithm upgrade of humanoid robots has driven the growth of computing power demand and spawned new product forms, and the division of labor in the domain control industry has spawned new supplier roles. The bank believes that there is a "from zero to one" industrial opportunity for humanoid robot domain controllers, and there is a broad market space.
In this round of industrial transformation, companies that are at the core of the chip industry's ecosystem and have strong software capabilities, and have hardware design and production experience, are expected to benefit the most.
Companies related to humanoid robot industry chain:
UBTECH (09880): At the Create 2024 Baidu AI Developer Conference, UBTECH humanoid robot Walker S "parachutes" to the stage, demonstrating the application of AI models and humanoid robots.
Legend Holding (03396): Lenovo Capital's investment in the humanoid robot field is not only limited to financial support, but also includes providing strategic guidance and market resources to the invested enterprises. For example, Lenovo Capital led the 100 million-yuan angel round financing of humanoid robot R&D company 'Xingdongjiyuan', indicating its bullishness on the commercial prospects of humanoid robots.