FUTU Morning Post

US stock market preview: US May PPI lower than expected, three major futures indices slightly up; Tesla soared nearly 8% before the market, Musk's $56 billion salary approved.

Futu News · Jun 13 20:39

全球宏观

周四盘前，三大期指盘前涨跌不一

美国至6月8日当周初请失业金人数录得24.2万人，预期22.5万人，前值22.9万人。为2023年8月12日当周以来新高。美国5月PPI年率为2.2%，预测值为2.5%，前值为2.2%。美国5月PPI月率录得-0.2%，为2023年10月以来最大降幅。

初请、PPI数据公布后，三大期指均有小幅拉升。

美联储点阵图不可全信？9月降息的大门并未关闭！

美国5月CPI数据的下降引发了股市上涨，但点阵图却显示，今年可能只会降息25个基点。不过，一些人并不那么相信美联储的强硬立场。Evercore ISI副主席Krishna Guha表示，他相信包括鲍威尔在内的许多美联储最具影响力的利率制定者都可能支持两次降息。他表示：“这是降息1.5次的信号”，美联储将在9月份举行选举前最后一次会议，届时将作出相关决定。此外，更多“受欢迎”的通胀数据，或有迹象表明高利率正在削弱美国就业市场，可能会促使美联储的降息幅度超过周四点阵图所显示的幅度。

又一大行“撕报告”！瑞银将美联储首降预期推迟至12月

周四，美联储官员减少了对今年降息幅度的预期，从三次降息25个基点降至仅一次。瑞银全球研究现在预计，美联储将在12月开始降息，而不是9月，而高盛和摩根士丹利仍预计美联储将在9月首次降息。摩根大通仍预计美联储将在11月份首次降息，但认为9月份的降息风险比12月份更大一些。美国银行全球研究则维持美联储将于12月降息的预测。

大摩：拜登胜选利好大市值增长股，特朗普上台则利好能源、金融以及小盘股

摩根士丹利首席投资官Michael Wilson表示，如果美国总统拜登再次当选，债券市场将可能受益，因为他的政府将试图提高税收以抵消部分政府支出；若前总统特朗普胜出，则对经济增长有利，对债券不利。路透引述威尔逊称，摩根士丹利仍认为大市值公司将表现超越大盘。在目前的经济和政治背景下，认为应该持有获利上修的股票，而这利好大盘优质股。他预计，如果特朗普上台，能源和金融板块以及小盘股将受益，而大市值增长股将因拜登胜出而受益。

科技股成为美股第二大股息分派行业

长期以来，高息股一直被看作成熟行业（例如金融股、能源股）的标配，但科技股正在改变这个生态。今年以来，Meta、Alphabet、Salesforce都加入了股息分派的大军。机构数据显示，科技股占标普500现金派息总额的14.1%，在所有行业排名第二。尽管科技股的股息率不高，但是金额巨大。

不要再盯着英伟达等“AI热潮推动者”！小摩大胆预测下一批受益者

鉴于投资者们对人工智能（AI）的热情仍然高涨，摩根大通一位高管表示，利用AI改变业务的公司可能会成为下一批受益者。现在越来越多的投资者正在寻找其他方式来押注人工智能的潜力，例如，摩根大通此前曾表示，一些交易客户正在涌入大宗商品市场，预计这项技术所需的基础设施将提振对能源和设备的需求。

热点要闻

明星科技股盘前走势分化

英伟达盘前涨超3%，一季度全球独立显卡市场份额升至88%

$英伟达 (NVDA.US)$盘前涨超3%，报129美元，开盘后势将再次刷新昨日盘中创下的历史高位。消息面上，据分析公司Jon Peddie Research的最新报告，2024年一季度全球独立显卡(AIB显卡)出货量由上一季度的950万块下滑至870万块，但同比增长39%。其中，英伟达市场份额爬升至高达88%，AMD显卡份额降至12%，英特尔显卡份额不足1%。

特斯拉盘前涨近8%，马斯克宣布赢得560亿美元薪酬方案投票

$特斯拉 (TSLA.US)$盘前大涨近8%报191.32美元。当地时间6月13日，特斯拉股东预计将投票批准向该公司CEO埃隆·马斯克支付560亿美元的薪酬方案，同时允许将这家电动汽车制造商的法定总部迁至美国得克萨斯州。尽管正式的投票结果尚未公布，但马斯克已经提前宣布“获胜”。他周三在社交媒体平台X上表示，该决议以较大优势通过。

博通盘前大涨近14%势创新高，AI需求强劲推动Q2业绩超预期，宣布“1拆10”

$博通 (AVGO.US)$盘前大涨近14%，开盘后股价势创历史新高。消息面上，博通公布截至今年5月5日的第二财季业绩，营收同比大涨43%至124.87亿美元，超出分析师预期的120.6亿美元，主要受益于强劲的人工智能需求以及VMware业务；non-GAAP每股收益同比增长6.2%至10.96美元，超出分析师预期的10.85美元。期内来自AI产品的收入达到创纪录的31亿美元。该公司预计2024年与AI芯片相关的收入将达到110亿美元，高于之前预测的100亿美元。此外，博通计划在7月12日盘后进行“1拆10”的拆股。

游戏驿站短期期权合约交易量激增，市场猜测“咆哮小猫”削减头寸

据路透，$游戏驿站 (GME.US)$周三短期期权合约的交易量激增，市场猜测“咆哮小猫”Keith Gill可能已经出售了他最的部分游戏驿站期权头寸。Trade Alert数据显示，周三游戏驿站期权交易量跃升至120万份合约，较上月该股期权的日均交易量高出66%，其中约有93000份6月看涨期权易手。盈透证券首席策略师Steve Sosnick表示，在看到未平仓合约数据之前，我们无法确定(Keith Gill是否削减头寸)，但我想象不出还有谁能折价卖出如此巨额的成交量。

法拉第未来盘前涨1.5%，FF 91 2.0重启交付第二阶段

$Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc. (FFIE.US)$盘前涨1.5%。FF宣布，公司完成了向资深个人投资者用户何俊先生的新车交付。何先生的美国分公司的首席运营官在FF洛杉矶总部接受了FF 91 2.0。FF创始人、首席产品及用户生态官贾跃亭将车辆交付给了何先生的代表。这标志着公司重启了自去年开始的交付第二阶段(SOD2)。

聚焦中概股

热门中概股盘前多数上扬

哔哩哔哩盘前涨超6%，机构指其业绩有望持续提升

$哔哩哔哩 (BILI.US)$盘前涨超6%，报15.28美元。H股今日收涨5.6%，报116.8港元。美银日前发布研报，预计哔哩哔哩2024财年第二季及全年的业绩增长趋势将步入正轨，基于广告及游戏业务录得改善，将2024至2026财年的每股盈利预测上调3%至5%，将H股目标价由131港元上调至140港元，并重申“买入”评级。

美股盘前成交额TOP20

美股宏观事历提醒

（以下均为北京时间）

20:30 美国至6月8日当周初请失业金人数(万人)

20:30 美国5月PPI年率

01:00 美国至6月13日30年期国债竞拍-得标利率

次日00:00 美联储威廉姆斯在由《经济学人》举办的一场活动上支持与美国财长耶伦的讨论会

编辑/new

Global macro

Before the opening bell on Thursday, the three major futures contracts were mixed.

The initial jobless claims in the United States recorded 242,000 for the week ending June 8, with a forecast of 225,000 and a previous value of 229,000. It is a new high since the week of August 12, 2023. The US May PPI annual rate was 2.2%, with an expected value of 2.5% and a previous value of 2.2%. The monthly rate of PPI in May was -0.2%, the largest drop since October 2023.

After the initial claims and PPI data were released, the three major futures contracts all rose slightly.

Can't fully trust the Fed's dot plot? The door to a rate cut in September is still open!

The decline in US May CPI data triggered a stock market rise, but the dot plot showed that there may only be a 25 basis point rate cut this year. However, some people do not believe in the Fed's tough stance. Krishna Guha, Vice Chairman of Evercore ISI, said that he believes that many of the Fed's most influential rate-setters, including Powell, may support two rate cuts. He said:"This is a signal for a 1.5 rate cut", and the Fed will make relevant decisions at its last meeting before the election in September.

Another major bank 'tears up the report'! UBS has postponed the expected first rate cut by the US Federal Reserve until December.

On Thursday, Fed officials reduced their expectations for the magnitude of rate cuts this year from three 25 basis point cuts to just one. UBS Global Research now expects the Fed to start cutting rates in December, not September, while Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley still expect the Fed to cut rates for the first time in September. JPMorgan still expects the Fed to cut rates for the first time in November, but believes that the risk of a rate cut in September is greater than in December. Bank of America Global Research maintains its forecast that the Fed will cut rates in December.

Deutsche Bank: Biden's election is bullish for large-cap technology stocks, and Trump's election is bullish for energy, finance, and small-cap stocks.

Morgan Stanley's Chief Investment Officer Michael Wilson said that if US President Biden is re-elected, the bond market may benefit because his government will try to raise taxes to offset some government spending; if former President Trump wins, it will be good for economic growth and bad for bonds. Reuters quoted Wilson as saying that Morgan Stanley still believes that large-cap companies will outperform the broader market. In the current economic and political environment, it is believed that stocks that have profit upgrades should be held, which is good for high-quality stocks in the broader market. He expects that if Trump comes to power, energy and financial sectors, as well as small-cap stocks, will benefit, while large-cap growth stocks will benefit from Biden's victory.

Tech stocks have become the second largest dividend-paying industry in the US stock market.

For a long time, high-yielding stocks have been considered the norm for mature industries (such as financial stocks, energy stocks), but tech stocks are changing this ecosystem. This year, Meta, Alphabet, Salesforce, and other tech giants have joined the dividend-paying army. Institutional data shows that technology stocks account for 14.1% of the total cash dividends paid by the S&P 500, ranking second among all industries. Although the dividend yield of technology stocks is not high, the amount is huge.

Stop focusing on nvidia and other 'AI boom drivers'! Goldman Sachs boldly predicts the next batch of beneficiaries.

Given investors' continued enthusiasm for artificial intelligence (AI), a senior executive at JPMorgan said that companies that use AI to transform their business may be the next beneficiaries. More and more investors are now looking for other ways to bet on the potential of AI. For example, JPMorgan previously stated that some trading clients are entering the bulk commodity market, and this technology is expected to boost demand for energy and equipment.

Hot news

Star tech stocks diverge before the market opens.

NVIDIA rose more than 3% before the market opened. The market share of the global discrete graphics card market in the first quarter climbed to 88%.

$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$It rose more than 3% before the market opened, and reported 129 US dollars, which will once again refresh the intraday high set yesterday after opening. In terms of news, according to the latest report from the research company Jon Peddie Research, the global shipments of discrete graphics cards (AIB graphics cards) in the first quarter of 2024 fell from 9.5 million pieces in the previous quarter to 8.7 million pieces, but increased by 39% year-on-year. Among them, NVIDIA's market share climbed as high as 88%, AMD's graphics card market share fell to 12%, and Intel's graphics card market share was less than 1%.

Tesla rose nearly 8% before the market opened, and Musk announced his winning $56 billion compensation plan vote.

$Tesla (TSLA.US)$Shares of Tesla rose nearly 8% before the market opens to $191.32. On June 13th, shareholders of Tesla are expected to vote to approve CEO Elon Musk's compensation package of $56 billion and to allow the electric car maker's legal headquarters to be moved to Texas, USA. Although the official voting results have not been announced yet, Musk has announced the victory in advance. He said on social media platform X on Wednesday that the resolution passed with a significant margin.

Broadcom rose nearly 14% before the market opens, with strong demand for AI driving better-than-expected Q2 performance and announcing a 1-to-10 stock split.

$Broadcom (AVGO.US)$Broadcom's shares rose nearly 14% before the market opens and hit a new high after opening. On the news side, Broadcom announced its second quarter results as of May 5th this year, with revenue soaring 43% year-on-year to $12.487 billion, exceeding analysts' expectations of $12.06 billion, mainly due to strong demand for artificial intelligence and VMware business; Non-GAAP earnings per share rose 6.2% year-on-year to $10.96, exceeding analysts' expectations of $10.85. Revenue from AI products during the period reached a record $3.1 billion. The company expects AI-related revenue to reach $11 billion in 2024, higher than the previous forecast of $10 billion. In addition, Broadcom plans to conduct a 1-to-10 stock split on July 12th after the market closes.

The trading volume of short-term option contracts of GameStop surged, and the market speculated that Keith Gill, also known as "Roaring Kitty", has trimmed his positions.

According to Reuters,$GameStop (GME.US)$Short-term option contract trading volume surged on Wednesday, and the market speculated that Keith Gill, also known as "Roaring Kitty", may have already sold a large part of his GameStop option position. Trade Alert data shows that the trading volume of GameStop options reached 1.2 million contracts on Wednesday, an increase of 66% over the daily average trading volume of the stock options last month, of which about 93,000 June call options changed hands. Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, said, "We can't be sure (Keith Gill has trimmed his positions) until we see the open interest data, but I can't imagine anyone else selling such a huge trading volume below the market price."

Faraday Future rose 1.5% before the market opens, and FF 91 2.0 restarted the delivery of the second phase.

$Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc. (FFIE.US)$Rose 1.5% before the market opens. FF announced that the company has completed the delivery of a new car to senior individual investor user Mr. He Jun. The COO of his US branch received the FF 91 2.0 at FF's Los Angeles headquarters. Jia Yueting, founder, chief product and user ecology officer of FF, handed over the vehicle to Mr. He's representative. This marks the restart of the delivery of the second phase (SOD2) that began last year.

Not to be outdone, after NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun announced the latest AI chip iteration schedule on the evening of June 2nd, AMD CEO Su Zifeng also threw out an iteration roadmap during her speech on the morning of June 3rd before the COMPUTEX opened. The company will launch the MI325 X and Ryzen AI300 this year, the MI350 series in 2025, and the MI400 series in 2026.

Most popular China concept stocks rose before the market opens.

Bilibili rose more than 6% before the market opens. Institutions pointed out that its performance is expected to continue to improve.

$Bilibili (BILI.US)$Rose more than 6% before the market opens, at $15.28. H shares rose 5.6% today, closing at HKD 116.8. Bank of America recently released a research report, predicting that Bilibili's performance trend in Q2 of 2024 and the full year will improve, based on improvements in advertising and gaming businesses, and raised its earnings per share forecast for 2024 to 2026 by 3% to 5% and raised H shares' target price from HKD 131 to HKD 140, and reiterated its "Buy" rating.

Bilibili rose more than 3% pre-market trading and was upgraded to "buy" by UBS, which raised its EPS estimate per share.

Reminder for US Macro Events

(All in Peking Time)

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending June 8th (in 10,000s of persons)

20:30 US May PPI YoY

01:00 US 30-Year Treasury Bond Auction - Awarded Yield Rate as of June 13th

Next day 00:00 William Williams of the Federal Reserve supports a discussion with US Treasury Secretary Yellen at an event hosted by The Economist

Editor/new

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