Buckle up! Will the Bank of Japan take the first step towards tightening tomorrow?

wallstreetcn · Jun 13 19:25

来源：华尔街见闻

与全球央行降息潮相左，日本央行正走在货币紧缩的道路上。

尽管日央行在3月份历史性终结“负利率”时代，但似乎虽有紧缩之名但无紧缩之实，实际市场影响也有限，日元持续疲软。

日央行或将在6月议息会议上迈出紧缩“第一步”。北京时间周五上午11点左右，日央行将公布利率决议，随后日央行行长植田和男将在下午14:30召开货币政策新闻发布会。

市场普遍预计，隔夜无担保拆借利率将维持在在0-0.1%不变，本周政策看点在于：

日央行或减少购债规模，可能通过政策声明或植田和男新闻发布会传达；多数预测削减规模将不超过1万亿日元，如果立即减幅超过这一规模，可能会引发日元和债券收益率动荡。
植田和男对近期经济数据看法以及对未来加息条件和时机的思考，注意是否放出下个月加息的信号。

此外，上次4月会议政策声明非常简单，只是陈述了政策利率指引和资产购买指引，即“日央行将根据2024年3月货币政策会议的决定进行购买”。在下次政策声明中，分析认为声明可能会包括政策指引的表述，如“如果当前对经济活动和价格的展望得以实现，且基础通胀增加，日央行将调整货币宽松程度”。

看点一：日央行料考虑缩减购债

自3月份结束负利率并开始走上政策正常化道路以来，削减购债将是日央行迈向量化紧缩的第一步。本周美联储降息预期升温，加上日本国债收益率稳定，这是日央行讨论购债的好时机。

接受媒体调查的经济学家中，超过一半的经济学家表示，日央行将放缓债券购买速度，目前每月购买国债的目标金额为6万亿日元左右。如果购买量明显低于6万亿日元，则表明量化紧缩正在进行中。

关于缩减购债细节方面，分析普遍认为日央行不太可能立即大幅减少，而是做出小幅调整。

摩根士丹利表示：

预计该行将提供关于未来减少其每月国债购买量的指导方针或蓝图。我们认为在7月加息前，不会立即减少购买量。如果本月决定减少购买量，我们认为将是小幅减少至每月约5万亿日元。

植田和男在6月6日的上议院财政委员会上表示，日央行正在评估3月政策调整后金融市场的状况，但明确重申了减少每月购债是适当的看法。日央行曾于5月13日意外缩减购债规模，此后市场押注日央行的动作或将继续。

此外，分析人士表示，任何购债的转变都将是渐进和分阶段的，当局不想让债券市场参与者感到意外。他们表示董事会希望以类似于美联储做法的务实方式推进任何变革。日央行可能会暗示，如果收益率大幅上升，央行准备介入市场。

值得一提的是，在长期的货币宽松政策下，日央行已持有约一半的日本国债。日本严峻的财政状况意味着日央行必须避免收益率急剧上升，这会增加该国巨额公共债务的融资成本。

看点二：会否放出7月“加息”信号？

除了缩减购债预期升温外，由于日元持续走弱，日央行7月加息的预期也一直在增长。

据媒体调查，三分之一的受访经济学家预计下个月将加息，约60%的经济学家认为存在这种可能性。重点关注植田和男在新闻发布会上关于未来政策路径的发言。

美银美林预计，日央行将在7月会议上将政策利率提高到0.25%。大摩也持有相似的看法：

考虑到最近植田和男和副行长冰见野良三的讲话，我们认为日央行对工资上涨传播至中小企业的信心增强。预计该行将在7月3日和7月8日的相关调查结果发布后，在7月货币政策会议上将政策利率从0.1%小幅提升至0.25%。

瑞银认为：

重要的是，植田和男和其他董事会成员表示，如果日元贬值影响到基础通胀，日央行将会做出反应。然而，考虑到日本核心CPI连续2个月降温，我们预计日央行会在下次会议上做出这样的判断。
我们的基线预期是日央行将在10月31日将政策利率从当前的0-0.1%上调至0.25%，前提是确认经济数据中的实际消费和服务通胀在回升。

看点三：日元、日债将作何表现？

若日央行最终行动与预期有所出入，可能会引发日元和日债动荡。

今年迄今日元对美元跌幅已超10%，成为表现最差的主要货币之一。面对日元疲软的困境，若日央行在会议后仍未对缩减购债提供任何暗示，可能会进一步削弱日元。

分析认为，如果日央行完全不改变政策，日元贬值可能会加速，就像4月日央行未采取行动，日元加速下跌一样。

美债方面，根据彭博全球回报指数，日本国债今年已下跌约3%，成为亚洲地区跌幅最大的债券。

美银美林预期：

如果日央行决定不改变当前的购债规模，这可能会导致国债市场空头回补，国债收益率可能会全线下降，7月加息预期也会下降。
如果购债规模从每月6万亿日元降至5.5万亿日元，国债市场可能会出现轻微抛售。
如果降至5万亿日元，抛售可能会更加持久，并向市场传达“鹰派”信号。

Pimco则预计日央行今年将再加息两次，提振日本国债回报率。Pimco日本和亚太投资组合管理联席主管Tomoya Masanao表示：

日央行料将在7月或9月将政策利率提高至0.25%，12月或明年1月加息至0.5%，2025年利率将升至1%。他预计到2024年底，5年期日本国债债收益率将在0.9%左右，10年期收益率将在1.25%左右。这将是投资者重返日本债券市场的好机会。

编辑/jayden

Source: Wall Street See

In contrast to the global interest rate cuts, the Bank of Japan is currently on the path of monetary tightening.

Although the Bank of Japan formally ended the era of negative interest rates in March, the actual impact on the market has been limited, and the yen has remained weak despite being called a tightening policy.

The Bank of Japan may take the first step towards tightening at the June policy meeting. At around 11:00 am Friday Beijing time, the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision, followed by a press conference on monetary policy by Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda at 2:30 pm.

Market expectations are generally that the overnight unsecured call rate will remain at 0-0.1%. The policy focus this week is on:

The Bank of Japan may reduce its bond purchases, which could be conveyed through a policy statement or a press conference by Kuroda. Most forecasts predict that the reduction in purchases will not exceed ¥1 trillion, and if the reduction exceeds this immediately, it could cause volatility in the yen and bond yields.
Pay attention to Kuroda's recent economic data views and thinking about the conditions and timing of future rate hikes, focusing on whether he gives a signal for a rate hike next month.

In addition, the policy statement from the April meeting was very simple, stating only the policy rate guidelines and asset purchase guidelines, that is, "the Bank of Japan will purchase according to the decision of the monetary policy meeting in March 2024." In the next policy statement, the statement may include policy guidelines such as "if the outlook for economic activity and prices is achieved and underlying inflation increases, the Bank of Japan will adjust the degree of monetary easing."

Focus One: The Bank of Japan is expected to consider reducing bond purchases

Since ending negative rates in March and beginning to normalize policy, reducing bond purchases will be the Bank of Japan's first step toward quantitative tightening. This is an opportune time for the Bank of Japan to discuss bond purchases, given the rising expectation of a rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve this week and the stability of Japanese government bond yields.

More than half of the economists surveyed by the media said the Bank of Japan will slow down its bond purchases. The current target amount of monthly purchases of government bonds is approximately ¥6 trillion. If the purchase amount is significantly less than ¥6 trillion, it would indicate quantitative tightening is occurring.

On the details of reducing bond purchases, the analysis generally believes that the Bank of Japan is unlikely to immediately reduce the amount significantly, but will make small adjustments.

Morgan Stanley said:

It is expected that the bank will provide guidance or a blueprint for reducing its monthly purchases of government bonds. We do not believe that the bank will reduce its purchase amount immediately before the rate hike in July. If it decides to reduce the purchase amount this month, we believe it will be a small reduction to approximately ¥5 trillion per month.

At the Upper House Financial Committee on June 6, Kuroda said the Bank of Japan is assessing the state of financial markets after the March policy adjustment, but reiterated that reducing monthly bond purchases is an appropriate view. The Bank of Japan unexpectedly reduced bond purchases on May 13, and bets on the Bank of Japan's moves are expected to continue.

In addition, analysts say any change in bond purchases will be gradual and phased, and authorities do not want to surprise bond market participants. They said the board wants to push forward any changes in a pragmatic way similar to the US Federal Reserve. The Bank of Japan may indicate that it is prepared to intervene in the market if yields rise sharply.

It is worth mentioning that under the long-term policy of monetary easing, the Bank of Japan holds about half of Japanese government bonds. Japan's severe fiscal situation means the Bank of Japan must avoid a sharp rise in yields, which would increase the financing cost of the country's huge public debt.

Focus Two: Will there be a signal for a rate hike in July?

In addition to the expectations of reduced bond purchases, the expectation of a rate hike in July by the Bank of Japan has been growing due to the yen's continued weakness. According to a media survey, a third of the economists surveyed expect a rate hike next month, and about 60% believe it is possible. Pay close attention to Kuroda's comments on future policy paths at the press conference.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch predicts that the Bank of Japan will raise its policy rate to 0.25% at the July meeting. Deutsche Bank also holds a similar view:

The Bank of Japan may take the first step toward quantitative tightening at its June policy meeting.

Considering the recent speeches by Mr. Uetada and Vice Chairman Bingjian Yeliang, we believe that the Bank of Japan's confidence in spreading wage increases to small and medium-sized enterprises has increased. It is expected that after the release of the relevant survey results on July 3rd and July 8th, the Bank will raise its policy interest rate from 0.1% to 0.25% at the July Monetary Policy Meeting.

UBS Group believes:

It is important to note that Mr. Uetada and other board members indicated that if the depreciation of the yen affects underlying inflation, the Bank of Japan will react. However, given that Japan's core CPI has cooled for two consecutive months, we expect the Bank of Japan to make such a judgment at the next meeting.
Our baseline expectation is that the Bank of Japan will raise its policy interest rate from the current 0-0.1% to 0.25% on October 31st, provided that actual consumption and service inflation in economic data are confirmed to be rising.

Point 3: How will the yen and Japanese bonds perform?

If the Bank of Japan's final actions deviate from expectations, it may trigger volatility in the yen and Japanese bonds.

The yen has fallen by more than 10% against the US dollar so far this year, becoming one of the worst performing major currencies. Faced with the dilemma of a weak yen, if the Bank of Japan still does not provide any hints on tapering after the meeting, it may further weaken the yen.

Analysis suggests that if the Bank of Japan does not change its policy at all, yen depreciation may accelerate, just like in April when the Bank of Japan did not take action and the yen accelerated its decline.

On the US Treasury side, according to the Bloomberg Global Return Index, Japanese government bonds have fallen by about 3% this year, becoming the biggest decliner among Asian bonds.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch expects:

If the Bank of Japan decides not to change the current scale of asset purchases, this may lead to short covering in the government bond market, and bond yields may fall across the board, and expectations of a July rate hike may also decline.
If the scale of asset purchases is reduced from JPY 6 trillion to JPY 5.5 trillion per month, there may be a slight sell-off in the bond market.
If it is reduced to JPY 5 trillion, the sell-off may be more persistent, conveying a "hawkish" signal to the market.

PIMCO expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates twice more this year, boosting returns on Japanese government bonds. Tomoya Masanao, Co-Head of PIMCO's Japan and Asia-Pacific Portfolio Management, said:

The Bank of Japan is expected to raise its policy interest rate to 0.25% in July or September, and to 0.5% in December or January next year. By 2025, the interest rate will rise to 1%. He expects that by the end of 2024, the 5-year Japanese government bond yield will be around 0.9%, and the 10-year yield will be around 1.25%. This will be a good opportunity for investors to return to the Japanese bond market.

Editor / jayden

The translation is provided by third-party software.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.

系好安全带！明天日本央行将迈出紧缩“第一步”？