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一大关键因素依旧疲软!欧佩克+今年恐难以增产?

One major key factor remains weak! Can OPEC+ increase production this year?

Golden10 Data ·  Jun 13 17:32

OPEC+ claims it will take action based on market conditions, but the current situation doesn't support a production increase.

One of the founders of Energy Aspects said that if world oil demand does not increase, OPEC+ may not need to increase production later this year.

Under the leadership of Saudi Arabia, OPEC+ announced a plan earlier this month to gradually restore production of approximately 2 million barrels per day starting from October. Amrita Sen, one of the founders of Energy Aspects, said that this will depend on the market situation, but currently OPEC+ may not need to restore production.

She said, "If demand does not recover, I don't think they will restore production."

For about two years, OPEC+ has been limiting production in order to prevent a huge oversupply that could lower prices and harm the economies of its member countries, with production cuts accounting for about 5.7% of global crude oil supply.

In recent months, oil prices have been trending downward. Since hitting a five-month high in early April, global crude oil benchmark Brent crude oil prices have fallen by nearly 9%. In early April, when Israel reportedly launched an air strike on the Iranian embassy in Syria, causing market panic, oil prices briefly reached $91.

The low oil prices are partly due to record U.S. oil production pushing up global supply and concerns about sluggish demand in other major economies.

Sen said that global oil demand is expected to grow at a rate of 1.1 million barrels per day this year. She said that U.S. consumption has been weak, but Chinese consumption may rebound from the end of this year to next year.

She said that by the end of this year, U.S. crude oil production will increase by 400,000 barrels per day, and will also increase by 400,000 barrels per day next year. She said that including other liquid hydrocarbons, the daily output increase will reach 700,000 barrels.

Earlier, the IEA said that the imminent global oil oversupply could "undermine" OPEC+'s efforts to support prices through production cuts, adding that the oversupply could lead to "lower oil prices."

According to the IEA's Medium-Term Oil Market Report, by 2030, the scale of global oil oversupply will reach a "staggering" 8 million barrels per day.

Regarding the recent series of acquisitions by U.S. oil companies, Sen believes that the growth of U.S. oil production will slow down. She said, "This is a consolidation, and by 2030, you will see growth slow down but be stable."

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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