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“木头姐”看好特斯拉(TSLA.US)Robotaxi之梦 预测2029年股价“狂飙”13倍至2,600美元

"Wood Sister" is bullish on Tesla's (TSLA.US) Robotaxi dream, predicting that the stock price will soar 13 times to $2,600 by 2029.

Zhitong Finance ·  Jun 13 14:48

Analyst at Ark Invest sets Tesla's expected stock price for 2029 at $2600, with a bearish prediction of $2000 and a bullish prediction of $3100.

According to the Futu Securities News App, the Ark Investment Management, founded and led by Cathie Wood, also known as 'Wood Sister', released a new open source model about Tesla (TSLA.US) on Wednesday. The analyst team composed of Tasha Keeney, Sam Korus, and Daniel Maguire set Tesla's expected stock price for 2029 at $2600, with a bearish prediction of $2000 and a bullish prediction of $3100.

As of the time of publication, Tesla's stock price had risen by 5.95% to $187.83. ARK's expectations for Tesla imply an increase of 1300% over the current price.

Ark Invest believes that the robotaxi service will be launched within the next two years. It is said that the likelihood of Tesla launching this service within five years is slim.

Looking ahead, ARK Invest expects that almost 90% of Tesla's enterprise value and profits will be attributed to robotaxis by 2029. Electric vehicles are estimated to account for one quarter of Tesla's total sales, about 10% of Tesla's profit potential, while robotaxi profit margins are much higher.

"From a modeling perspective, we previously estimated Tesla's average return on investment to be about 40-60%, higher than Uber's return on investment of about 20-30%. This year, we have made some adjustments to our analysis and added the following assumptions: Tesla will initially own and operate its vehicle network, retaining all revenue per mile in the first one to three years."

"In the following years, we assume that third-party companies will build and maintain fleets, earning service revenue of about $0.20 per mile, with the remaining revenue per mile going to Tesla. In fact, in the last year of this model, Tesla's average return on investment will be about 80%. At the same time, we have modified the median expectation for robotaxi to the end of 2025."

ARK Invest also believes that Tesla's latest fully automated driving V12 release opens up room for growth. In this version, Tesla transitions to neural networks, which to learn directly from video data and control vehicles, obviating the need for over 300,000 lines of manual code writing. ARK Invest's research shows that Tesla accumulates data 110 times faster than Waymo (GOOGL.US), a subsidiary of Google.

ARK Invest's research shows that humanoid robots are expected to bring about $24 trillion in global revenue opportunities over the next five years. If Tesla chooses to sell Optimus externally, it may occupy an important share in the trillion-dollar market.

Tesla is the largest holding of the ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF (ARKQ.US) and the fourth largest holding of the ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW.US).

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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