According to the Zhitong Finance APP, the Federal Reserve announced early today (June 13) that it will maintain the federal funds rate at 5.25% to 5.5%, which is consistent with market expectations and has held steady for seven consecutive meetings. Wang Meifeng, the general manager of Zhongyuan Mortgage, said that if the United States cuts interest rates in September this year, it is expected to wait for the Hong Kong dollar's interbank rate to gradually decline to a certain extent. Hong Kong's most favorable interest rate (P) and interest rate can be expected to fall. It is expected that Hong Kong's main interest rate of 4.125% will be roughly flat this year. There is a chance for Hong Kong's interest rate cycle to start in the fourth quarter of this year to the first quarter of next year, and at that time, Hong Kong's interest rate may fall to or below 4%.

Wang Meifeng pointed out that the current US interest rate policy depends mainly on inflation trends, economic conditions, and labor market performance. This year, even the latest US inflation rate progress has stalled, and waiting for inflation numbers to show a downward trend, coupled with steady US economic data, has delayed the pace of US interest rate cuts. It is expected that there is a greater chance of a US interest rate cut in September this year, with interest rate cuts up to 1 to 2 times between 0.25% and 0.5% this year. During the interest rate hike cycle, the increase in Hong Kong's interest rate is significantly less than that of the US interest rate (the cumulative increase in the US federal interest rate is 5.25%, and the increase in Hong Kong P is only 0.875%).

Regarding the property market, Wang Meifeng said that the trading volume of Hong Kong's property market softened in the second quarter. The news of the delayed interest rate cuts in the United States will also delay the time for interest rate cuts in Hong Kong, and the bank's reduction of mortgage discounts and individual bank's tightening of mortgage approvals have had an impact on the property market atmosphere. As a result, more buyers have become more cautious. In addition, the continuous low-price sales strategy of new properties has put pressure on second-hand property prices; however, after the Hong Kong government lifted the cooling measures on the property market, the property market regained momentum and there was potential buying power in the market. Although the above factors will cause a short-term consolidation period in the Hong Kong property market, many buyers are still looking for bargains, and the trading volume of the property market is still better than before the cooling measures.

Wang Meifeng continued to point out that although the pace of interest rate cuts has been delayed, the expectation that future interest rates will gradually fall in the second half of the year will gradually add positive factors to the property market. If the United States starts to cut interest rates in September, the Hong Kong dollar's interbank rate may fall to reduce banks' funding costs, which is conducive to improving banks' attitudes toward property mortgages.