Finance and Economics APP learned that on June 13, Jibang Consulting issued a document stating that nearly 80% of silicon material companies are undergoing maintenance. Among them, about 15% of manufacturers will gradually resume production at the end of the month, but from the perspective of supply and demand up and down the industry, the output of silicon material is still redundant this month. As for silicon wafers, head and second-tier manufacturers are reducing production as planned, and the speed of inventory consumption is gradually accelerating. The overall inventory level has dropped to a range of 3.4-3.6 billion pieces. It is expected that manufacturers will maintain a relatively low level of production to reduce their inventories. Component production is gradually decreasing as expected.

Silicon material

This week's silicon material prices: the mainstream transaction price of monocrystalline for recycled materials is 34 yuan/KG, and the mainstream transaction price for monocrystalline dense materials is 32 yuan/KG; N-type materials are quoted at 38 yuan/KG.

Trading situation: The transaction of P and N-type products was sluggish this week, and manufacturers relied mainly on inventory digestion.

Production status: Nearly 80% of silicon material companies are undergoing maintenance. Among them, about 15% of manufacturers will gradually resume production at the end of the month, but from the perspective of supply and demand up and down the industry, the output of silicon material is still redundant this month.

Trend judgment: Although the speed of the overall inventory level has slowed down, under the background of high losses and high inventory of downstream silicon wafers, the current price sensitivity to silicon materials is high. Combined with leading manufacturers continuing to supplement new capacity, it is expected that the price will continue to run horizontally at the bottom. The subsequent capacity decisions of leading manufacturers are the core factors determining the trend of silicon material prices.

Silicon wafer

This week's silicon wafer prices: The mainstream transaction price of P-type M10 silicon wafers is 1.20 yuan/piece; the mainstream transaction price of P-type G12 is 1.75 yuan/piece; the mainstream transaction price of N-type M10 is 1.10 yuan/piece and the mainstream transaction price of N-type G12 is 1.65 yuan/piece. The mainstream transaction price of N-type G12R silicon wafers is 1.45 yuan/piece.

Inventory dynamics: Head and second-tier manufacturers are reducing production as planned, and the speed of inventory consumption is gradually accelerating. The overall inventory level has dropped to a range of 3.4-3.6 billion pieces. It is expected that manufacturers will maintain a relatively low level of production to reduce their inventories.

Product trend: Starting this month, the proportion of 210R product production has increased significantly, and downstream component selection switching will drive the production of 210R size.

Price trend: Due to the downstream demand callback and high silicon wafer inventory along with the approaching Q2 earnings report season, manufacturers are under tremendous pressure to reduce inventory, leading to weaker bargaining power in the silicon wafer market. It is expected that the price will continue to run at a low level in the short term.

Solar Cells

This week's solar cell prices: The mainstream transaction price of M10 solar cells is 0.300 yuan/W, and the mainstream transaction price of G12 solar cells is 0.320 yuan/W. The mainstream transaction price of M10 monocrystalline TOPCon solar cells is 0.30 yuan/W, and the mainstream transaction price of G12 monocrystalline TOPCon solar cells is 0.35 yuan/W.

Inventory dynamics: Affected by the decrease in downstream component order visibility, solar cell inventories have shown an upward trend this month, and this week's inventory trend has continued to maintain a slight upward trend.

Production status: Second and third-tier small factories continue to lower their production due to their cash flow, and under the current internal consumption model, OEM costs have also gradually decreased. According to current OEM cost estimates, they are getting closer to the cash costs of production companies, and manufacturers that choose OEM or direct sales models are facing a cash loss dilemma.

Price trend: With the decline in component order visibility and the loosening of demand support, the subsequent price may still fluctuate at a low level. The continued high operation of silver prices may further compress the profit margins of solar cell manufacturers.

Component

This week's component prices: The mainstream transaction price of 182 single-sided monocrystalline PERC components is 0.80 yuan/W, and the mainstream transaction price of 210 single-sided monocrystalline PERC components is 0.82 yuan/W. The transaction price of 182 double-sided double-glass monocrystalline PERC components is 0.82 yuan/W, and the mainstream transaction price of 210 double-sided double-glass monocrystalline PERC components is 0.84 yuan/W. The mainstream transaction price of 182 double-sided double-glass TOPCon components is 0.86 yuan/W, and the mainstream transaction price of 210 double-sided double-glass HJT components is 1.00 yuan/W.

Production status: Component production is gradually decreasing as expected.

Inventory status: the inventory level is about 1-1.5 months, and there is an upward risk of water level after the terminal demand shrinks.

Terminal demand: In China, distributed installation is still waiting for the electricity reform policy to be implemented, and ground power stations are steadily advancing; overseas, the preliminary ruling of the anti-dumping and countervailing investigation on Southeast Asian products that cause damage has been passed in the USA, and it is expected that Southeast Asian production capacity will face more stringent tariff conditions.

Price outlook: the monthly bidding and tendering benchmark price has slightly decreased, and the actual transaction price may face downward risks due to the dumping of some manufacturers in the market and clearing of inventory.