CBOT cereal futures rose on Wednesday as the market anticipated that Russian wheat crops might be further damaged by the weather, while the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) lowered its forecast for Russia's 2024-25 wheat production to the lowest level in three years.

CBOT wheat and soybeans recovered from the previous trading day's decline, while corn rose for the second day in a row.

The main CBOT wheat contract rose 0.6% to $6.21 per bushel, after falling 1.5% on Wednesday.

The main contract for CBOT corn rose 0.5% to 456.5 cents per bushel; the main contract for CBOT soybeans rose 0.19% to 1179.5 cents per bushel.

The USDA lowered Russia's 2024-25 wheat production forecast to 83 million tons, down from 88 million tons last month, and the export volume was also lowered from 52 million tons in May to 48 million tons. As a result, due to the previous adverse weather, Russia declared a state of emergency for crop losses.

The USDA raised the US wheat production estimate for 2024/25 to 1,875 billion bushels, a five-year high, higher than the 1,858 billion bushels forecast in May. USDA also raised the forecast for global wheat year-end stocks for the 2023/24 market year to 259.56 million tons, exceeding market expectations.

According to the Rosario Grain Exchange, Argentina's upcoming wheat harvest in 2024/25 is expected to be 21 million tons, close to the record set in 2021/22.

France Agrimer, the French agricultural office, raised the 2023/24 export forecast for French soft wheat outside the EU on Wednesday, leading to an expected decline in stocks, even though these stocks are still at a 19-year high.

According to government estimates, the continuing drought in Mexico is expected to once again affect this year's harvest and may increase dependence on American corn.

The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) said that due to the decline in production due to extreme high temperatures during the growing season, Ukrainian corn production is expected to drop from 29.6 million tons in the previous year to 25.5 million tons in 2024/25, and exports will drop from 26 million tons to 20.5 million tons.

As of June 12, Ukraine's grain exports in 2023/24 have risen from 46.7 million tons in the same period in 2023 to 48.4 million tons, according to data released by the Ministry of Agriculture of Ukraine on Wednesday.

In its latest monthly report, the USDA lowered its estimate of global grain and soybean end-of-period stocks for 2024/2025 from the May forecast.

Grain buyers in Jordan have issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 tons of milled wheat, and Japan is buying a total of 109,126 tons of food-quality wheat from the US, Canada, and Australia.

(The above analysis is from Refinitiv's latest opinion)