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富途早报 | CPI降温仍猛砍降息预期!美联储继续按兵不动,预计今年仅降息一次

Futu Morning Post | CPI cools down but still slashes interest rate expectations! The Fed continues to hold steady, and it is expected to only cut interest rates once this year.

Futu News ·  Jun 13 08:00

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  • Despite the cooling of CPI, expectations of interest rate cuts remain high! The Federal Reserve continues to hold steady and is expected to cut interest rates only once this year.

Although recent data shows that US inflation has cooled down, the Federal Reserve still sharply cut the expected rate cut within the year. The Federal Reserve announced that it will continue to maintain the Federal Funds Rate target range between 5.25% -5.50%. This is the seventh consecutive time since September last year that interest rates have remained unchanged. Powell admitted that the recent monthly inflation data has eased, but the confidence has not yet reached the level of easing interest rates.

It is worth noting that in the policy statement, there has been a significant change in the "dot plot". The expectations of 19 policy makers show that the median of the rate cut within the year is 25 basis points, which is significantly lower than the 75 basis points in the March meeting. Among them, the number of people who support "not lowering interest rates" increased from 2 to 4, and the number of people who support "lowering interest rates once" increased from 2 to 7. In addition, the expected rate of decline in 2025 and 2026 has been raised to 100 basis points.

  • The dream of interest rate cuts can only be put on hold, how does Wall Street interpret the Federal Reserve's decision?

Because the Federal Reserve expects to cut rates only once in 2024, but traders hope the Federal Reserve can more actively reduce borrowing costs. The FedSwap transaction shows that although the Fed has given guidance, traders still tend to cut rates at least twice this year. The swap contract is still priced for a 25 basis point rate cut in November and December. Daofu Securities believes that Powell's press conference and FOMC's forecasts "provide something for everyone." For doves, the good news is that there is no interest rate hike except for still strong GDP growth, and it is confirmed that the next step is a rate cut. In addition, Powell emphasized that the FOMC believes that the labor market is in a better balanced state, which sets a new standard for measuring labor data in the future.

  • Goldman Sachs trading department: Beware of the summer correction of US stocks

Scott Rubner, managing director of Goldman Sachs Group's global market department and tactics expert, said that as the US stock market positions reach their limit, traders should beware that US stocks may weaken later this summer. Rubner wrote in a report sent to clients that the S&P 500 index rose 14% in 2024, but there are some disturbing signals in the market's position, so Rubner is "simulating a summer correction." "I don't think investors are preparing for a further rise in the stock market, which will be painful trading."

  • Bearish Warning? IEA: Global demand for crude oil is about to peak, and oversupply is coming.

The International Energy Agency's monthly report on the crude oil market pointed out that by 2030, global oil production will surge and is expected to exceed demand growth. The agency warned that this will push idle capacity to unprecedented levels. IEA Director Fatih Birol suggested that the world's largest energy giants adjust their own business strategies to adapt to the changes that are taking place.

Gamestop's surge has dramatically narrowed, with the trading platform considering unplugging the internet of US retail investors.

  • S&P and Nasdaq have set three consecutive highs, with Microsoft, Apple and Nvidia all hitting record highs.

Due to the positive impact of US CPI data, the US stock market opened significantly higher, and the gains narrowed during the day due to the Fed's "hawkish" resolution. The three major indexes closed up and down.

As of the close, the S&P 500 index rose 0.85% to 5,421.03 points, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.53% to 17,608.44 points. Despite the narrowing of gains, both the S&P and the Nasdaq closed at historical highs and maintained the pace of "one new high a day" this week. Unfortunately, the Dow Jones fell 0.09% to 38,712.21 points, falling for two consecutive days.

Large technology stocks rose collectively. Microsoft surged at the tail of trading, closing up 1.94%, and the company's total market value reached 3.278 trillion U.S. dollars, surpassing Apple to return to the global first place; Apple rose more than 6.2% in the intraday, finally closed up 2.86%, with a total market value of 3.267 trillion U.S. dollars, lagging behind Microsoft by 11 billion U.S. dollars; Nvidia rose 3.55%, with a market value returning above the threshold of 3 trillion U.S. dollars; Google C rose 0.77%, and the stock prices of the above four technology giants all closed at historical highs; Amazon fell 0.18%, Meta Platforms rose 0.27%, and Tesla rose 3.88%.

Among the components of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, Taiwan Semiconductor rose 4.39%, ASML Holding rose 3.17%, and Broadcom rose 2.36%, all hitting historical highs. Among them, Broadcom rose by 14% after hours.

  • Apple's stock price soared in intraday trading, and the company's total market value returned to the top of the world for a while.

Overnight,$Apple (AAPL.US)$It rose more than 6% at one point and finally rose nearly 3%, hitting a new historical high again, and it once surpassed Microsoft to return to the throne of "US stock number one" in the intraday. "The most understanding of Apple" analyst Guo Mingchi said that at present, the AI function of the Samsung S24 phone is still relatively limited, and Microsoft's AIPC has not given consumers a clear understanding, and now only Apple has redefined the terminal AI.

  • After-hours trading soared more than 14%! Broadcom announced a 1-to-10 split, beating second-quarter performance expectations and raising performance guidance.

$Broadcom (AVGO.US)$Thursday's post-market trading showed that the adjusted net revenue for the second quarter was $12.49 billion, higher than analysts' expected $12.06 billion. Broadcom also raised its earnings guidance for the fiscal year, expecting revenue of about $51 billion for the fiscal year ending in October of this year, higher than analysts' expected $50.58 billion, and higher than Broadcom's previous estimate of nearly $50 billion. It's worth noting that the company also announced a 10-1 stock split plan, with its stock price up more than 14% after hours.

  • Citron announced that it will stop shorting GameStop. The US short-selling institution said on social platform X on Wednesday that it is not because they believe that the company's fundamentals will improve, but because the company has $4 billion in bank deposits and GameStop has enough space to soothe its passionate shareholders.

The stock price fluctuated significantly overnight, ending down 16.50%.$GameStop (GME.US)$TSMC rose more than 4% and its market cap surpassed Berkshire Hathaway to become the 7th largest listed company on the US stock market.

  • It rose more than 6% during trading and hit a new historical high, finally closing up over 4%, with a market capitalization approaching $900 billion, surpassing Berkshire Hathaway to become the 7th largest listed company on the US stock market. Bank of America raised TSMC's target price to $180 and reiterated its 'buy' rating.

$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ASML Holding rose more than 3% to a new high as expansion plans gain support from the Eindhoven Municipal Council in the Netherlands. It rose more than 3%, hitting a high of $1077.219, a new historical high. The Eindhoven Municipal Council in the Netherlands voted 34-6 on Tuesday to support ASML's expansion plans in the area. In addition, the Dutch government announced a $2.5 billion budget in March to support and ensure that ASML is headquartered in the country.

  • Northbound funds bought more than HKD 400 million of Bank of China and more than HKD 300 million of CNOOC on June 12 (Wednesday).

$ASML Holding (ASML.US)$Economic data: US May PPI will be released. Earnings: Adobe will release its earnings after the US stock market closes. IPO news: If you can't control the situation, then missing an opportunity isn't a bad thing.

If you want to play this game, you must believe in yourself and your judgment.

BeiShui crazily bought China Mobile for nearly HKD 1.8 billion and sold Tencent for about HKD 200 million. On Monday (June 3rd), Southbound funds net purchased HKD 3.4 billion of Hong Kong stocks.

  • The company's overall sales volume in 23 was 18,000 kiloliters, an increase of 28.10% YoY, with significant growth. In terms of product structure, the operating income of products ranging from 10-30 billion yuan was respectively RMB 401/1288/60 million yuan.

The weather is good today The weather is good today.

$BANK OF CHINA (03988.HK)$, $CCB (00939.HK)$, $CNOOC (00883.HK)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$CHINAHONGQIAO (01378.HK)$Received a net sell-off of HKD 64.78 million.

The company's overall sales volume in 2023 was 18,000 kiloliters, with a year-on-year increase of 28.10%, indicating significant growth. In terms of product structure, the operating income of products worth 10-30 billion yuan were 401/1288/60 million yuan respectively.

US PPI, unemployment benefits, Adobe.

On Thursday, regarding economic data, the US PPI for May will be released. On the financial report side,$Adobe (ADBE.US)$performance will be released in post-market trading. Regarding new stocks,$QUANTUMPH-P (02228.HK)$Will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange today.

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Futubull Morning News:

Institutions and analysts bought HKD 413 million, HKD 344 million and HKD 341 million, respectively; they sold HKD 64.78 million.
- Buffett

Editor/Somer

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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