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Earnings Growth of 7.5% Over 3 Years Hasn't Been Enough to Translate Into Positive Returns for Frontdoor (NASDAQ:FTDR) Shareholders

Simply Wall St ·  Jun 13 02:36

As an investor its worth striving to ensure your overall portfolio beats the market average. But in any portfolio, there are likely to be some stocks that fall short of that benchmark. Unfortunately, that's been the case for longer term Frontdoor, Inc. (NASDAQ:FTDR) shareholders, since the share price is down 31% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return of around 19%. The last week also saw the share price slip down another 5.5%.

With the stock having lost 5.5% in the past week, it's worth taking a look at business performance and seeing if there's any red flags.

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During the unfortunate three years of share price decline, Frontdoor actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 24% per year. This is quite a puzzle, and suggests there might be something temporarily buoying the share price. Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.

Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

We note that, in three years, revenue has actually grown at a 5.2% annual rate, so that doesn't seem to be a reason to sell shares. This analysis is just perfunctory, but it might be worth researching Frontdoor more closely, as sometimes stocks fall unfairly. This could present an opportunity.

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
NasdaqGS:FTDR Earnings and Revenue Growth June 12th 2024

We know that Frontdoor has improved its bottom line lately, but what does the future have in store? So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Frontdoor will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).

A Different Perspective

Frontdoor shareholders gained a total return of 9.6% during the year. Unfortunately this falls short of the market return. On the bright side, that's still a gain, and it is certainly better than the yearly loss of about 3% endured over half a decade. So this might be a sign the business has turned its fortunes around. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Frontdoor .

We will like Frontdoor better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of undervalued stocks (mostly small caps) with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
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