Follow the latest developments from the Federal Reserve

After CPI, it's the Federal Reserve's turn to take the stage! Pay attention to these six key points in the early morning.

Golden10 Data · Jun 12 21:29

周三公布的CPI数据显示，美国通胀超预期回落，有望让美联储在降息上更有底气。周四凌晨2:00，美联储将公布最新的利率决议，市场普遍预计FOMC将维持基准利率不变，但经济学家将密切关注任何有关四年来的首次降息时机的线索。自2022年初开始一系列快速加息后，美联储自去年7月以来一直将利率区间维持在5.25%-5.5%不变。

美联储预计不会在7月份降息，这意味着他们将在9月会议前获得更多数据。鉴于此，官员们可能会尽量保留选择余地。本周之后，美联储今年还将召开四次会议——分别是7月、9月、11月和12月。

今年会有几次降息？

在3月份，美联储官员认为，2024年三次降息可能是最佳政策选择。考虑到通胀如此顽固，目前多数经济学家认为美联储今年只会预测一次或两次降息。

CIBC Capital Markets固定收益策略主管Ian Pollick表示，如果美联储释放两次降息的预期，这将被视为鸽派。这将表明美联储将在9月，即总统选举前降息。许多经济学家预计美联储将预测两次降息，这将给予他们灵活性，但Pollick表示，一次降息将更加中性。

尽管有更多讨论称美联储“中性利率”水平已上升，但美联储可能仍预计2025年和2026年会有三次降息。

点阵图：多少官员预计今年零降息？

根据公开评论，一些美联储官员可能会在点阵图上调整他们的利率预测，以表明今年不会降息的观点。如果相当数量的官员这样做，那将挑战经济学家普遍认为美联储仍在倾向于今年降息的看法。

法国巴黎银行经济学家叶莲娜·舒利亚蒂耶娃（Yelena Shulyatyeva）预计，将有三位美联储官员处于不降息阵营，预计六位官员将处于一次降息阵营，十位官员将预计有两次降息。

牛津经济研究院首席美国经济学家瑞安·斯威特（Ryan Sweet）同样淡化了大量官员支持零降息的可能性。他在采访中表示，“我认为他们不会过多改变现状。”

通胀的整体叙述会有何变化？

摩根大通首席美国经济学家迈克尔·费罗利（Michael Feroli）表示，鲍威尔在其会后新闻发布会上的表态一直被视为鸽派，这种情况预计将继续。两次降息的预测将使鲍威尔能够继续说通胀正在下降。

前美联储理事拉里·迈耶（Larry Meyer）表示，美联储在通胀方面面临两个意外，首先去年出现了急剧的通胀回落进程，随后在今年头几个月通胀却又出现急剧反弹。

目前最大的问题是，当这个过山车式通胀进程结束时，经济将处于什么位置。迈耶表示，“在我们对所处位置和趋势有更好判断之前，需要几个月的改善通胀数据。”

鲍威尔将如何解读通胀数据？

在上周三进入噤声期之前，鲍威尔表示，他预计通胀月率将下降至去年下半年的较低水平。

摩根士丹利首席美国经济学家埃伦·岑特纳（Ellen Zentner）表示，这是一个值得注意的信息传递转变。美联储官员通常谈论的是12个月的通胀率，甚至他们的通胀目标也是以2%的年率设定的。

经济学家知道，今年的通胀同比不会有太大进展，因为必须与去年下半年的低通胀读数相比较。因此，即使月率改善，年度率也不会下降太多。岑特纳表示，鲍威尔正在发出信号，即美联储将关注“连续性”改善。

迈耶这样解释：“美联储将希望看到6个月通胀率低于12个月通胀率，3个月通胀率低于6个月通胀率。”如果数据以这种方式出现，岑特纳表示，美联储将能够从9月开始降息。她表示，这将让美联储随后在每次会议降息，直至2025年中。

“在噤声期前，鲍威尔主席的评论被叙述掩盖，即在开始降息所需的信心方面，月度通胀的连续回落速度最为重要，”岑特纳表示。

“我完全期待他在下周的美联储会议上，在问答环节重复这一点，”她补充道。

会有关于加息的讨论吗？

5月初的上次会议纪要显示，如果通胀风险以需要采取行动的方式显现，官员们准备再次加息。

但摩根大通首席美国经济学家迈克尔·费罗利（Michael Feroli）表示，“我们不认为任何‘点’会显示加息，但如果这是错误的，将使鲍威尔的信息复杂化。”美国银行证券美国经济部负责人迈克尔·加彭（Michael Gapen）表示：

“鲍威尔可能会维持一个高门槛，加息是一个低概率事件。”

前堪萨斯联储主席霍尼格（Thomas Hoenig）在最近的一次采访中表示，加息将过于冒险，并将震动市场。

他在Substack采访中告诉顶级美联储观察家凯瑟琳·海斯（Kathleen Hays），“我不知道FOMC中有多少人愿意加息。”他补充说，只要通胀不上涨，美联储将等待并观望。

政治将如何影响美联储决策？

美国将在11月迎来总统选举，高利率并不是受美国选民欢迎的政策：高利率使得贷款买房或买车变得更加昂贵，而对于背负信用卡债务的人来说，这可能是一笔巨大的开支。美联储同时还在试图放缓经济发展并削弱就业市场，虽然重点是降低通胀，但实现这一目标的道路可能会很痛苦。

有鉴于此，现任政客普遍不喜欢高利率。特朗普在担任总统时曾对美联储进行过抨击，尽管拜登总统出于对美联储独立性的尊重而避免公开批评美联储主席鲍威尔，但其他民主党人却没有那么谨慎。欧洲央行上周降息后，马萨诸塞州参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦和其他民主党人致信美联储主席，敦促他效仿。

美联储表示，在设定利率时不会考虑政治因素，鲍威尔今晚可能会维持这一立场。

編輯/new

The CPI data released on Wednesday showed that US inflation fell more than expected, giving the Federal Reserve more confidence to cut rates. At 2:00 a.m. on Thursday, the Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision. The market generally expects the FOMC to keep the benchmark rate unchanged, but economists will closely monitor any clues about the timing of the first rate cut in four years. Since a series of rapid rate hikes began in early 2022, the Federal Reserve has maintained the interest rate range at 5.25%-5.5% since July last year.

The Federal Reserve is not expected to cut interest rates in July, which means they will have more data before the September meeting. Officials may, therefore, try to preserve their options. After this week, the Federal Reserve will hold four more meetings this year - in July, September, November, and December.

How many rate cuts will there be this year?

In March, Federal Reserve officials believed that three rate cuts in 2024 might be the best policy choice. Given the stubbornness of inflation, most economists currently believe that the Federal Reserve will only predict one or two rate cuts this year.

Ian Pollick, head of fixed income strategy at CIBC Capital Markets, said that if the Federal Reserve releases a forecast of two rate cuts, this would be seen as dovish. This would indicate that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in September, just before the presidential election. Many economists expect the Federal Reserve to predict two rate cuts, which will give them flexibility, but Pollick says that one rate cut will be more neutral.

Despite more discussions that the Fed's 'neutral rate' level has risen, the Fed may still anticipate three rate cuts in 2025 and 2026.

Dot Plot: How many officials expect zero rate cuts this year?

According to public comments, some Federal Reserve officials may adjust their rate forecasts on the dot plot to indicate that they do not expect interest rate cuts this year. If a significant number of officials do this, it will challenge economists' widely held view that the Federal Reserve is still biased toward rate cuts this year.

Yelena Shulyatyeva, an economist at BNP Paribas, expects three Federal Reserve officials to be in the non-rate-cut camp, six officials to be in the one-rate cut camp, and ten officials to be in the two-rate cut camp.

Ryan Sweet, chief US economist at the Oxford Economics Research Institute, also downplayed the likelihood of a large number of officials supporting zero rate cuts. He said in an interview, "I don't think they will change the status quo too much."

How will the overall narrative of inflation change?

Michael Feroli, chief US economist at JPMorgan, said that Powell's post-meeting press conference has always been seen as dovish, and this is expected to continue. The prediction of two rate cuts will allow Powell to continue saying that inflation is falling.

Former Federal Reserve Board member Larry Meyer said that the Federal Reserve faces two surprises in inflation: first, the sharp decline in inflation last year, and then the sharp rebound in inflation in the first few months of this year.

The biggest problem at present is where the economy will be when this roller-coaster-like inflation process ends. Meyer said, "We need a few months of improved inflation data before we have a better understanding of our position and trend."

How will Powell interpret inflation data?

Before entering the quiet period last Wednesday, Powell said he expected the monthly inflation rate to fall to last year's lower levels in the second half of this year.

Ellen Zentner, chief US economist at Morgan Stanley, said this was a noteworthy shift in messaging. Federal Reserve officials typically talk about annual inflation rates, and even their inflation targets are set in terms of a 2% annual pace.

Economists know that there will not be much progress in year-over-year inflation this year because they must be compared with low inflation readings in the second half of last year. Therefore, even if the monthly rate improves, the annual rate will not decrease too much. Zentner said Powell was sending a signal that the Federal Reserve would focus on "continuous" improvements.

Meyer explained this as follows:"The Federal Reserve will want to see the 6-month inflation rate below the 12-month inflation rate, and the 3-month inflation rate below the 6-month inflation rate." If data appears in this way, Zentner said, the Federal Reserve will be able to cut rates from September onwards. She said this would allow the Federal Reserve to cut rates at every meeting until mid-2025.

"Prior to the quiet period, Chairman Powell's comments were overshadowed by the narrative that the speed of consecutive monthly inflation declines is most important for the confidence needed to begin cutting interest rates," Zentner said.

'I fully expect him to reiterate this point in the Q&A session at next week's Fed meeting,' she added.

Will there be a discussion about rate hikes?

Minutes from the May meeting showed officials were prepared to raise rates again if inflation risks materialized in a way that called for action.

But Michael Feroli, chief US economist at JPMorgan, said, "We do not believe that any 'dot' will show a hike, but if it did, it would complicate Powell's message." Michael Gapen, head of US economics at Bank of America Securities, told top Federal Reserve observer Kathleen Hays in a Substack interview:

Former Kansas Fed President Thomas Hoenig said in a recent interview that raising rates would be too risky and would disrupt the markets.

He told top Fed watcher Kathleen Hays on Substack, 'I don't know how many people in the FOMC are willing to raise rates.' He added that as long as inflation doesn't pick up, the Fed will wait and watch.

"I don't know how many people in the FOMC would be willing to hike," he told her. He added that as long as inflation does not rise, the Federal Reserve will wait and see.

How will politics affect the Fed's decision-making?

The United States will have presidential elections in November. High interest rates are not a popular policy among American voters: high interest rates make it more expensive to buy a house or car with a loan, and it can be a huge expense for people with credit card debt. The Fed is also trying to slow economic growth and weaken the job market, although the focus is on reducing inflation, the road to achieving this goal may be painful.

In light of this, current politicians generally do not like high interest rates. Trump criticized the Fed during his presidency, and although Biden avoids publicly criticizing Fed Chairman Powell out of respect for the Fed's independence, other Democrats are not so cautious. After the European Central Bank cut interest rates last week, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren and other Democrats wrote to the Fed chairman urging him to follow suit.

The Fed has stated that it does not consider political factors when setting interest rates, and Powell may maintain this stance tonight.

Editor/new

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