Inflation is falling! The US core CPI in May was down to a three-year low year-on-year, with a month-on-month growth rate of 0.2% lower than expected.

wallstreetcn · Jun 12 20:46

美国通胀持续回落，整体和核心指标涨幅全线低于预期，对于正在寻找降息佐证的美联储官员来说是一个“惊喜”。

6月12日周三，美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示，美国5月CPI同比增长3.3%，较前值和预期值3.4%小幅下降；5月CPI环比增长0%，低于预期0.1%，也较前值明显放缓，为2022年7月以来最低水平。其中，能源仍是拖累CPI环比上涨的最大因素。

剔除食品和能源成本后的5月核心CPI同比增长3.4%，低于预期3.5%，也低于前值3.6%，为三年多以来的最低水平；5月核心CPI环比增速从4月份的0.3%下降至约0.2%（实际值为0.16%），弱于预期的0.3%。

美联储关注的超级核心通胀也有所降温，环比下跌0.05%，为自2021年9月以来的首次下跌，由运输服务成本下跌带动，但同比水平仍高于5.0%

数据发布后，交易员们重新完全消化了美联储11月降息的可能性，并预计年内会有两次25个基点的降息行动，交易员还将9月降息的概率上调至72%。而互换市场显示，11月降息的概率达到100%。

美股三大指数早盘上涨，截至发稿，道指涨0.77%，纳指涨1.35%，标普500指数涨0.92%。

能源通胀回落、住房价格增速下降、核心服务通胀环比明显放缓

分部门看，住房成本上涨仍是通胀下行的最大阻力，能源价格加速下滑推动通胀放缓：

能源指数本月下跌2%，汽油指数下跌3.6%，燃油指数下降0.4%。
住房成本是服务业中最大的类别，连续第四个月上涨0.4%，交通服务继前月上涨0.9%之后，5月下降0.5%；
新车指数环比下降0.5%，二手车指数扭转跌势，医疗护理商品价格大幅上涨1.4%。

值得一提的是，核心服务通胀环比明显放缓，除住房和能源外的服务价格与4月份基本持平，为2021年9月以来最低水平。

占CPI权重较大的住房通胀放缓，环比上涨了0.4%。其中，住房通胀率同比下降5.41%，为 2022年4月以来的最低水平；租金通胀同比下降5.30%，为 2022年5 月以来的最低水平。

整体来看，延续服务通胀顽固、商品通胀放缓的趋势，服务业通胀仍停留在5%以上，而商品通胀则处于2004年1月以来的最低水平。

美联储9月降息预期升温

投资公司AmeriVet Securities美国利率交易和策略主管Gregory Faranello表：

5月CPI报告是一份“非常好的通胀数据”，预计这种趋势将持续下去。今天的美联储会议应该会看到官员们“朝着2024年两次降息的方向迈进”，而从现在开始的更疲软的CPI数据将使9月份的降息预期继续升温。

分析师Cameron Crise指出：

CPI数据给债券多头和美联储带来了期待已久的下行惊喜。总体和核心CPI均比预期低0.1%，考虑到实际指数与预测值的差距，这一误差看起来是合理的。
实际上，核心指数的涨幅为0.16%，经四舍五入后几乎只上升了0.1%。除住房外的超级核心服务业下降了0.04%，这是自2021年9月以来首次出现负增长。这使2024年的两次降息成为可能，并为市场在2025年定价更多降息打开了大门。

Edward Jones高级投资策略师Mona Mahajan认为，美联储还需等待2-3次的疲软数据才会降息：

这对美联储来说可以重置计划。在他们获得真正开始发出降息信号所需的信心之前，他们仍然希望看到可能有两到三次的数据朝着正确的方向前进。我们仍在等待住房和租金大幅下降，也在关注劳动力市场和工资增长的降温。

该报告是在美联储FOMC决议公布前几个小时发布，人们普遍预计美联储官员将连续第七次将利率维持在20年高位，同时将发布最新“点阵图”和季度经济预测。

美联储官员仍可以根据CPI数据情况调整季度经济预测，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，在会议期间发布重要数据时调整，这种情况以前也发生过。

编辑/Jeffrey

US inflation continued to fall, with both overall and core indicators rising less than expected, which was a "pleasant surprise" for Federal Reserve officials looking for evidence of interest rate cuts.

On Wednesday, June 12th, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released data showing that the US CPI increased by 3.3% year-on-year in May, slightly lower than the previous value and expected value of 3.4%; The month-on-month growth of May's CPI was 0%, lower than the expected 0.1%, and also significantly slower than the previous value, the lowest since July 2022. Energy is still the biggest factor dragging the CPI up month-on-month.

Excluding food and energy costs, May's core CPI rose 3.4% year-on-year, lower than expected 3.5% and lower than the previous 3.6%, the lowest level in more than three years; the month-on-month core CPI growth rate fell from April's 0.3% to about 0.2% (actual value 0.16%), weaker than the expected 0.3%.

The Federal Reserve's focus on super core inflation has also cooled somewhat, falling 0.05% month-on-month, the first decrease since September 2021, driven by a decline in transportation service costs, but still higher than last year's level of 5.0%.

After the data release, traders have re-digested the possibility of a November rate cut by the Federal Reserve and expect two 25 basis point rate cuts within the year. Traders also raised the probability of a rate cut in September to 72%. Meanwhile, the swap market shows a 100% probability of a rate cut in November.

The three major US stock indices rose in early trading, with the Dow up 0.77%, the Nasdaq up 1.35%, and the S&P 500 up 0.92% as of the time of publication.

Energy inflation fell, housing price growth rate declined, and core service inflation slowed down significantly month-on-month.

Looking at different sectors, the rise in housing costs is still the biggest obstacle to the downward trend of inflation, while the acceleration of the decline in energy prices has slowed down inflation:

The energy index fell 2% this month, the gasoline index fell 3.6%, and the fuel index fell 0.4%.
Housing costs are the largest category in the service sector, rising by 0.4% for the fourth consecutive month. Transportation services, after rising by 0.9% in the previous month, fell by 0.5% in May.
The new car index fell by 0.5% month-on-month, the second-hand car index reversed its downward trend, and the prices of medical and nursing commodities rose sharply by 1.4%.

It is worth mentioning that the core service inflation has slowed down significantly month-on-month, and the prices of services other than housing and energy are basically flat compared to April, the lowest level since September 2021.

Housing inflation, which accounts for a large proportion of CPI, slowed, rising 0.4% month-on-month. Among them, the housing inflation rate fell 5.41% year-on-year, the lowest level since April 2022; the rent inflation rate fell 5.30% year-on-year, the lowest level since May 2022.

Overall, service sector inflation remains above 5%, while commodity inflation is at its lowest level since January 2004.

Expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September are rising.

Gregory Faranello, head of US rate trading and strategy at investment firm AmeriVet Securities, said:

The May CPI report is a "very good inflation data," and the trend is expected to continue. Today's Fed meeting should see officials "move toward two rate cuts in 2024," and the current weaker CPI data will continue to increase expectations of a rate cut in September.

Analyst Cameron Crise pointed out:

The CPI data brought the long-awaited downward surprise to bond bulls and the Fed. Both overall and core CPI were 0.1% lower than expected, and given the gap between actual and forecast figures, this error seems reasonable.
In fact, the core index rose by only 0.1% after rounding to the nearest hundredth. The super core service industry excluding housing fell by 0.04%, the first negative growth since September 2021. This makes it possible for two rate cuts in 2024 and opens the door for more rate cuts to be priced in the market in 2025.

Mona Mahajan, senior investment strategist at Edward Jones, believes that the Federal Reserve will need 2-3 soft data points to cut interest rates:

This can reset the plan for the Federal Reserve. They still want to see two to three data points moving in the right direction before they gain the confidence they need to really start sending out signals that they will cut rates. We are still waiting for a significant decline in housing and rent, and we are also paying attention to the cooling of the labor market and wage growth.

This report was released just a few hours before the announcement of the FOMC decision by the Federal Reserve. It is generally expected that Fed officials will maintain interest rates at their 20-year high for the seventh consecutive time, and will also release the latest "dot plot" and quarterly economic forecasts.

Federal Reserve officials can still adjust quarterly economic forecasts based on CPI data, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said, adjusting when important data is released during the meeting, which has happened before.

Edited by Jeffrey

The translation is provided by third-party software.

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通胀回落！美国5月核心CPI同比降至三年低位，环比增速0.2%低于预期

Inflation is falling! The US core CPI in May was down to a three-year low year-on-year, with a month-on-month growth rate of 0.2% lower than expected.

能源通胀回落、住房价格增速下降、核心服务通胀环比明显放缓

美联储9月降息预期升温

Energy inflation fell, housing price growth rate declined, and core service inflation slowed down significantly month-on-month.

Expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September are rising.

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