Global macro

• On Wednesday before the market opened, the three major futures indices collectively rose.

• The US May CPI was lower than expected, and the core CPI fell to a three-year low.

The US May non-seasonally adjusted CPI recorded a year-on-year growth rate of 3.3%, which is lower than the expected level of 3.4% and fell to a three-month low. The US May non-seasonally adjusted core CPI recorded a year-on-year growth rate of 3.4%, which is lower than expected 3.5%, the lowest level since April 2021.

• The Fed Dot Plot: The Most Important Part!

The Fed's dot plot released in March showed that there would be three rate cuts this year. However, given that inflation data is still above target and the economy is continuing to grow steadily, analysts expect the latest dot plot to show only two rate cuts. Recent data is likely to prompt officials to adopt a more hawkish monetary policy, which will disappoint markets eager for rate cuts. Standard Chartered Bank's Steve Englander estimates that there is a 30% to 40% chance that the midpoint of the latest dot plot will show only one rate cut, which he wrote in a report that this result would be a significant hawkish impact. In addition, large banks such as Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and UBS expect that the Fed's June dot plot will show a two rate cut this year.

• Even though gold hovers at historical highs, Asia's "gold rush" cannot be stopped.

Some industry insiders said that although the price of gold is hovering near the record high in May, Asian demand for gold is still soaring, and buyers in the region are rushing to buy this hedging asset to hedge against geopolitical and economic growth uncertainties. The trading price of spot gold is currently slightly higher than $2,330 per ounce, up about 12% since the beginning of the year, and only about 6% lower than the historical record high set last month. In addition, some analysts say that the decline in confidence in other investment choices such as real estate and stocks is also a factor driving demand for gold.

• BofA: Clients net buy US stocks for the first time in six weeks, with individual investors and hedge funds leading the way

Bank of America stocks and quantitative strategy analysts said that the bank's clients bought net US stocks for the first time in six weeks last week, led by individual investors and hedge funds. According to the report, the bank's security clients bought USD 1.9 billion of US stocks last week, and both individual stocks and ETFs received inflows. The inflow of funds in a single stock was the largest week since December 2023. Among them, personal investor funds have been net inflows for the second consecutive week, hedge fund clients have net inflows for the first time in four weeks, and institutional clients have been net sellers for the second consecutive week.

• The EU plans to impose a temporary anti-subsidy tax on electric cars imported from China, and the Ministry of Commerce has spoken.

The European Commission stated that it will impose tariffs of 17.4%, 20%, and 38.1% on BYD, Geely Automobile, and SAIC Motor Corporation, respectively; other manufacturers will be subject to tariffs of 21%; and imported Tesla cars from China may apply to separate tax rates. A spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce responded that the EU ignored facts and WTO rules, disregarded China's strong opposition and the solicitations and dissuasion from many EU member States' governments and industrial circles, acted alone, and China is highly concerned and strongly dissatisfied with this. The Chinese industry is deeply disappointed and resolutely opposed to this.

Hot news

• Growth tech stocks generally rise before the market.

• "Wage Collection Record" faces another challenge? Institutions and shareholders sue Musk for the return of billions of dollars.

On Tuesday local time, a shareholder of$Tesla (TSLA.US)$an institution accused Musk in a lawsuit of using insider information to sell Tesla's stock, earning billions of dollars in illegal profits, and demanded that the court instruct the Tesla CEO to return the "illegal profits". According to the lawsuit filed by the Rhode Island Employees' Retirement System (ERSRI), Musk and his brother, Tesla director Kimbal Musk, cashed out Tesla's $30 billion worth of stock between the end of 2021 and the end of 2022, before the news that caused the company's stock price to fall was announced.

• Taiwan Semiconductor rose more than 3% before the market, and BofA raised its target price to $180.

$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$Before the market, it rose more than 3% to $171.69. On the news front, Nvidia, AMD and other big companies' AI chips are selling well, and the supply of advanced packaging capacity is in short supply. The industry rumors that TSMC's Nankang Chayi Park CoWoS new plant is entering the environmental review stage, that is, it is beginning to purchase equipment, hoping to accelerate the establishment of advanced packaging capacity to meet customer needs. Bank of America predicts that with the launch of Apple's personal smart system Apple Intelligence and the impetus brought by Computex in 2024, it foreshadows an increase in the semiconductor component content. The bank is bullish on TSMC, raising its target price from $160 to $180 and reiterating its Buy rating.

• Oracle rose more than 8% before the market, and the fourth-quarter performance is expected to be optimistic about cloud demand.

$Oracle (ORCL.US)$Pre-market rose more than 8% to $134.29. Oracle's fourth quarter revenue for fiscal year 24 was $14.29 billion, lower than expected, and the growth rate also slowed from the 7% in the previous quarter. However, Oracle executives stated that demand for cloud computing services is still strong and that cooperation with Google and Microsoft's cloud services is expected to drive double-digit revenue growth this fiscal year. During the conference call, Oracle announced its partnership with Microsoft and OpenAI to integrate Azure into Oracle's cloud infrastructure and provide additional computing power to support large-scale AI model training. Google will also partner with Oracle to enable Google Cloud customers to access Oracle's database services.

• Gamestop rose nearly 4% pre-market and completed the issuance of 75 million shares.

$GameStop (GME.US)$Completed the issuance of up to 75 million shares of on-market stocks, raising a total of $2.137 billion. The issue price was $10 per share, a 180% premium over the recent low point. The sale increased the company's available cash, cash equivalents, and non-restricted cash to approximately $3.157 billion, which can be used for general corporate purposes and/or acquisitions.

• Wim Troost, the founder of ASML, passed away at the age of 98 on the morning of June 8th, according to a post on the social media platform X. ASML's official account wrote: "One of our founding elders, Wim Troost, who was also CEO from 1987 to 1990, has passed away. When he led ASML, we were striving to win our first customer. After retiring, Wim has remained a true ambassador for ASML and the high-tech industry. His vision, leadership and determination have inspired many of us who followed."

On Tuesday evening local time, Dutch lithography giant$ASML Holding (ASML.US)$In a post on the social media platform X, the company wrote that one of its co-founders, Wim Troost, passed away on the morning of June 8th at the age of 98. ASML's official account wrote: "One of our founding elders, Wim Troost, who was also CEO from 1987 to 1990, has passed away. When he led ASML, we were striving to win our first customer. After retiring, Wim has remained a true ambassador for ASML and the high-tech industry. His vision, leadership and determination have inspired many of us who followed."

Focus on Hong Kong, US stocks.

• China concept stocks are mixed in pre-market trading.

• Zhihu rose more than 3% pre-market, with Q1 revenue exceeding expectations at $960.9 million, although lower than the same period last year ($994 million).

$Zhihu (ZH.US)$Pre-market rose more than 3% to $3.279. According to Zhihu's just-released financial report, its Q1 2024 revenue was CNY 960.9 million, although lower than the CNY 994.0 million during the same period last year, it exceeded market expectations of CNY 925.5 million.

Bilibili rose more than 3% pre-market trading and was upgraded to "buy" by UBS, which raised its EPS estimate per share.

Reminder for US Macro Events

(All in Peking Time)

8:30 PM US May CPI data.

2:00 AM the next day, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision and economic outlook summary.

2:30 AM the next day, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference.

Editor/new