Despite the continuous rise of US stocks and S&P 500 index set a historical new high this week, Marko Kolanovic, a well-known "big short" in Wall Street and JPMorgan's chief market strategist, still insists on his bearish stance, predicting that the US stock market will experience a downturn similar to the 2008 financial crisis in the next few months.

JPMorgan's "big short" sticks to bearish outlook on US stocks.

On Monday US Eastern time, Kolanovic reiterated his bearish view on the stock market in his latest report, recommending that investors maintain their shareholding position. "Despite the recent rise in US stocks, this only shows that the market has overlooked many risks," he wrote in the report. According to his prediction, the US stock market is expected to plummet 22% in the next six months.

"We still believe that the probability of the US macroeconomic situation deviating from a soft landing is as high as 50%. The reasons behind this may be that US economic growth has recently been interrupted, or that persistent high inflation has prompted the Federal Reserve and other major central banks to maintain high interest rates for a long time, or further raise rates, which in turn has led to concerns about the final hard landing in 2025/2026," he said.

Kolanovic added that "the US stock market still does not reflect the risk of a decline". He emphasized that the US stock market seems to have overlooked many risks, including domestic political risks, geopolitical risks, and the risk of excessive market concentration. In addition, he also mentioned that the recent surge in the trading of meme stocks and cryptos may indicate a market bubble, and that US inflation and interest rates are still high, and various macro signals have appeared indicating the risk of economic slowdown or recession.

"Despite the many risks, US stocks are still trading near all-time highs, and investor confidence and positions have both increased."

He said, "Although there are many risks, US stocks are still being traded near record highs, and investor confidence and positions have both increased."

He said that despite the large amount of risk, US stocks are still trading near record highs, and investor confidence and positions have both increased.

The Fed is expected to cut interest rates only once this year.

On Wednesday afternoon US Eastern Time (early Thursday morning Beijing time), the Fed will announce its June interest rate decision. JPMorgan expects the Fed to stay put this week and adjust its forecast in different directions.

"The (Fed monetary policy) committee is likely to have a subtle disagreement between one and two interest rate cuts this year... Our US team changed its view this week and expects only one rate cut this year, which will occur in November."

Kolanovic predicts that the S&P 500 index will close at 4200 points this year, meaning that he predicts that US stocks will fall 22% from current levels in the next six months.

However, historically, the number of times the S&P 500 index has had such a large decline within six months is very small. Since 1946, there have only been five records of the S&P 500 index falling more than 20% within six months.

The last time US stocks saw such a sharp decline was in the second half of 2008, when the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers caused a crash in US stocks, and the S&P 500 index fell by a cumulative 29.4% within six months.

Edited by Jeffrey