According to iFind data, as reported by China Great Wall Securities, the total sales volume of forklifts in China in April 2024 was 123,876 units, up 23.94% year on year but down 9.80% month on month. Electric forklift sales in April were 90,065, up 37.99% year on year but down 3.86% month on month. In terms of exports, China's forklift exports in April were 38,804 units, up 11.75% year on year but down 4.62% month on month, while total exports for the first four months were 144,406 units, up 21.05% year on year. Forklift exports account for about 33% of total sales volume, and the forklift market is highly correlated with the downstream logistics industry and is greatly affected by macroeconomic conditions, with the macroeconomic recovery expected to drive continuous expansion of forklift sales. The main recommended targets in the industry are Hangcha Group (603298.SH) and Anhui Heli (600761.SH).
China Great Wall's main points are as follows:
Forklift sales both domestically and internationally have grown simultaneously, with total sales volume up 23.94% year on year.
According to iFind data, the total forklift sales volume in China in April 2024 was 123,876 units, up 23.94% year on year but down 9.80% sequentially. The total sales volume for January to April was 439,955 units, up 14.38% year on year. By sales region, domestic sales of forklifts for April were 85,072 units, up 30.43% year on year but down 11.99% sequentially. Domestic sales for January to April totaled 295,549 units, up 11.37% year on year. In terms of exports, China's forklift exports in April 2024 were 38,804 units, up 11.75% year on year but down 4.62% sequentially, while total exports for the first four months were 144,406 units, up 21.05% year on year. Forklift exports account for about 33% of total sales volume.
Sales of electric forklifts continue to increase, and the electrification rate for forklifts is close to 70%.
According to iFind data, electric forklift sales in April 2024 were 90,065 units, up 37.99% year on year but down 3.86% sequentially, and total sales for January to April were 304,772 units, up 26.55% year on year. Sales of internal combustion forklifts in April were 33,811 units, down 2.51% year on year and down 22.55% sequentially, and total sales for January to April were 135,183 units, down 6.00% year on year. Electric forklift sales accounted for 69.27% of total forklift sales volume for January to April. In terms of exports, electric forklift exports in April were 30,607 units, up 20.64% year on year but down 2.58% sequentially, and total exports for January to April were 112,411 units, up 30.45% year on year. Internal combustion forklift exports in April were 8,197 units, down 12.38% year on year and down 11.57% sequentially, and total exports for January to April were 31,995 units, down 3.41% year on year.
The trend towards electrification and intelligence of industrial vehicles is evident, and policies are driving electric forklifts to dominate the market.
With the improvement of environmental awareness and the development of technology, support for the new energy industry by the state has begun to help transform the forklift industry. In 2020, Zhongli Co., Ltd. proposed the concept of "oil-to-electric" for the first time in the industry, calling on its peers to convert internal combustion forklifts to lithium-ion forklifts. According to the "Work Plan for Promoting the Elimination and Replacement of Old Diesel Forklifts with New Energy" (Zhejiang Huanhan [2022] No. 325), responded to by Jinhua, Quzhou, Lishui and other cities in succession in 2023, policies were issued to replace old diesel vehicles with new energy forklifts. Currently, new energy vehicles have become a new market trend, and the development trend of electrification and intelligence of industrial vehicle products is becoming increasingly evident, with the competitive strength of electric forklifts and new energy lithium battery forklifts obviously increasing.
Expansion of PMI for large companies is accelerating, and composite PMI is constantly expanding.
In May 2024, the National Bureau of Statistics reported that the PMI for the manufacturing sector was 49.5%, down 0.9% from the previous month's 50.4%, mainly due to the high base generated by the previous rapid growth of manufacturing and insufficient effective demand, but the overall economy maintained a trend of continued expansion of output. To break it down, enterprise production continued to expand, with a production index of 50.8%, still in the expansion range, and general equipment has been in the expansion range for three consecutive months, with enterprises releasing production capacity quickly. The PMI for large enterprises expanded faster, with a PMI of 50.7%, up 0.4% from the previous month, effectively supporting the recovery and development of the manufacturing industry. The composite PMI in May was 51.0%, still in the expansion range, and the production and business activities of Chinese enterprises maintained a trend of recovery and development.
The downstream application market for logistics industry is constantly consolidating and provides employment opportunities for forklifts.
Forklifts are an important part of the logistics industry, and intelligent products and overall logistics solutions are another major opportunity for the industrial vehicle industry. Correspondingly, the prosperity of the logistics industry also indirectly affects the development of the forklift market. According to data from the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, China's logistics industry prosperity index in May 2024 was 51.8%, down 0.6% from the previous month, and China's storage index was 48.4%, down 0.6% from the previous month. Although the index level has fallen slightly, it is still in the expansion range, and overall, logistic operations remain stable. In April 2024, the total social logistics totaled grew by 5.8% year on year for industrial products, maintaining a stable growth trend. The stable development of downstream markets lays the foundation for the demand of the forklift industry and guarantees future sales volume for forklifts.
Risks: risks of external operating environment, risks of intensified industry competition, risks associated with management due to scale expansion, risks of cost fluctuations.