share_log

苹果一度重夺美股市值第一宝座!AI助攻股价创下新高,华尔街连夜改口风,看涨期权被爆买

Apple once again overtakes the top spot in US stock market cap! With AI assistance, the stock price has reached a new high, causing Wall Street to change its tone overnight and revealing a boom in call options buying.

Futu News ·  Jun 12 21:43

$Apple (AAPL.US)$After a year of market fluctuations, the stock price finally successfully broke through the important psychological resistance level of $200 overnight, rising by 7.26%. This increase set a new record for the highest single-day since November 2022. On the product structure, the operating income of 10-30 billion yuan products are respectively 401/1288/60 million yuan.

As of press time, Apple rose more than 2%, reaching a new high. With the strong performance of its stock price, Apple's market cap quickly reached 3.25 trillion US dollars, successfully surpassing Nvidia and Microsoft, reclaiming the top spot in global market cap.

It should be noted that after the Monday conference, initial reaction of Apple's stock price was not good, closing down nearly 2%. From the perspective of the performance of Apple's stock price on the day of the annual WWDC conference, this is the worst performance of Apple in nearly 8 years, and also the fourth worst performance since the iPhone era.

Interestingly, as can be seen from the figure below, the performance of Apple's stock price on the day of the WWDC conference is usually average, but the performance generally rises within the three months after the WWDC conference. This means that after the overnight high, Apple's stock price may break the record again.

At this WWDC conference, Apple officially released its first generative AI model-Apple Intelligence, which marks its official entry into the AI era.

Due to the requirements for chip computing power, Apple Intelligence only supports iPhone 15 Pro, iPhone 15 Pro Max, iPad, and Mac devices with M1 or subsequent chips, which need to set the device language to English (USA).

It is worth noting that the emotional volatility of Wall Street is also evident in the event of Apple's announcement of its AI update. The stock price reacted tepidly that day, and many major banks believed that the news was 'neither good nor bad'. However, just one day later, Wall Street seemed to have regained its senses and sung Apple's praises.

Wall Street cheers for the iPhone super cycle

D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria has upgraded Apple's rating from neutral to buy and raised its target from $200 to $230. He said in a report that Apple's AI conference has inspired hopes that consumers will pay for the next generation of iPhones, and AI features may bring the growth catalyst that investors have been eager for.

Apple not only has access to consumer information, but also their trust, and it can provide deeply integrated features that independent chat applications, PC computers, and Android devices may not be able to fully replicate.

This analyst pointed out that historical data shows that Apple has chosen not to deploy AI software enhanced functions on most old iPhones, and this decision may have a positive impact on its stock price. The last time Apple's stock price significantly surpassed the market was during the iPhone 12 release cycle, which was the company's last time it launched a key innovation feature-5G technology, and this technology is not compatible with old devices.

From the year before and after that product upgrade cycle, Apple's stock price doubled. And now, given that Apple's stock price over the past year is almost the same as it was three years ago, it is reasonable to believe that the potential for stock price growth brought about by the product cycle may not have been fully realized.

Morgan Stanley's analysts also stated: Apple's AI features make the company the 'most differentiated consumer digital agent'. These features will drive consumers to upgrade their iPhones, accelerating the device replacement cycle. The bank also said that, buying Apple's stocks at this time each year, immediately after the WWDC conference, has always been a wise move. In the past 10 years, about half of Apple's superior performance relative to the S&P 500 index has occurred in the three months after the WWDC conference.

Evercore analysts mentioned that after the conference, they are 'more confident' about the AI prospect of Apple, because limiting Apple Intelligence to last year's sold iPhones, has convinced the bank even more that AI can help open the iPhone's super cycle.

Citi analysts even said that Apple's current WWDC will be the best conference in a long time because it introduced 'AI' to others. The company stated that, Apple's AI functions will be launched this fall, coupled with the release of iPhone 16, the iPhone upgrade super cycle should start and end in 2025 with iPhone 17.

At the WWDC, we focused on key details, and we are more confident that Apple is about to usher in a multi-year product update, which supports our buy rating, $216 target price, and $270 bull market valuation.

At the same time, Bank of America's analysts are also optimistic about Apple,

As the Evercore analyst mentioned, their AI will only support last year's sold iPhones. They believe that with the AI functionality, Apple is positioned to become 'the most differentiated consumer digital agent' and the functions will help drive faster iPhone replacement cycles.

These features will bring a cycle of upgrading to an AI intelligent iPhone. Bank of America maintains a buy rating on Apple because of its commitment to multi-year upgrade cycles, the potential for margin expansion, and service growth.

The investment bank also said that history shows buying Apple stock at this time of year has been a wise move. Looking at the past 10 years, about half of Apple's superior performance relative to the S&P 500 index has occurred in the three months after the WWDC conference.

Citigroup analysts even said that Apple's current WWDC conference is the best one in a long time because they have introduced AI to others. The company said that with the integration of Apple's upcoming AI feature in the fall and the iPhone 16 launch, the iPhone upgrade super cycle will begin, culminating in iPhone 17 in 2025.

Apple, the largest US tech company, has introduced a generative AI tool called the 'Apple Intelligence' and is likely to trigger another iPhone upgrade cycle. According to Citibank, the device cycle will begin later this year and end in 2025, following the release of the iPhone 16. In recent days, compared to other tech stocks, Apple has performed well after dropping significantly following the WWDC keynote. In a Tuesday note, Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty wrote that the Apple AI features make the company the 'most differentiated consumer digital agent' and that by restricting Apple Intelligence to last year's sold iPhones, the firm is more convinced that AI could help accelerate iPhone's replacement cycle.

It is expected that all iPhone 16 models will support artificial intelligence, and iPhone 17 will drive the update of the super cycle because developers will have a whole year to develop applications.

However, Rosenblatt analysts have expressed their views on Apple's decision not to invest heavily in purchasing Nvidia's graphics processors. The bank believes that the risk is that without Nvidia, Apple's performance will be significantly reduced compared to its competitors.

Bullish options trading on Apple! The trading volume has reached a new high in nearly three years.

As Apple's stock price rebounded from Monday's lows to a historic high, the trading volume of its bullish options also reached the highest level since 2021.

according toAccording to Futubull's data,nearly 4.4 million options were traded yesterday, more than four times the average daily trading volume of the past 30 days. Among them, 2.9 million were bullish options, with the trading volume twice that of bearish options.

Data Source: Apple Stock Page>Options>Options Analysis>Volume Distribution
Data Source: Apple Stock Page>Options>Options Analysis>Volume Distribution

Susquehanna International Group states that the changes in implied volatility and the high trading volume of bullish options indicate that investors are buying bullish options as the stock price moves. The demand indicators for put options and call options also show a similar trend, and the premium for put options has hit its lowest level since 2021.

From the options chain, the most traded bullish options have strike prices of $205 and $200.

It is worth noting that the prices of multiple call options expiring on Friday have skyrocketed, with options prices increasing by as much as 23-62 times.

016.png

Mooers,

Do you have a bullish outlook on Apple's future trend?

Is now the best time to buy Apple?

Welcome to leave your wonderful comments in the comment section~

Editor/Somer

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment