小心鲍威尔“亮鹰爪”引发黄金看跌破位!FXStreet首席分析师金价技术分析 盯住这些支撑和阻力

Beware of Powell's "hawkish claws" causing a fall in gold put options! FXStreet's chief analyst analyzes the price of gold technically and pays attention to these supports and resistances.

FX168 ·  Jun 12 11:29

#Gold Technical Analysis# 24K99 news, spot gold maintained a moderate decline in intraday trading on Wednesday (June 12), and the current gold price is around $2314/ounce. FXStreet's chief analyst, Valeria Bednarik, wrote an analysis of the technical prospects for gold.

Bednarik pointed out that the gold price maintained a pessimistic tone around $2310/ounce. Financial markets are cautious ahead of upcoming US events (Fed decisions and US inflation data).

Bednarik said that the gold price is under selling pressure around $2300/ounce, and the put will be broken soon.

At 20:30 on Wednesday, Beijing time, the US will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for May. The month-on-month increase in US May CPI is expected to drop from 0.3% to 0.1%, but the core CPI is expected to remain stable at 0.3%. In addition, the year-on-year increase in US May CPI is expected to remain unchanged at 3.4%, and the increase in core CPI is expected to drop from 3.6% to 3.5%.

At 02:00 on Thursday, Beijing time, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release the interest rate decision and economic outlook summary; at 02:30 on Thursday, Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, will hold a monetary policy press conference.

Investors generally predict that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged. Investors will pay attention to the Fed officials' forecast dot matrix on future interest rate paths. According to a median estimate in a survey, 41% of economists predict that policymakers will suggest two rate cuts in their interest rate path 'point charts', while about 41% of economists predict that the forecast will show one or no rate cuts.

Bednarik wrote that investors are waiting for the FOMC decision. It is widely expected that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current federal funds rate of 5.25%-5.50%, and the earliest rate cut will not be until September. In the first quarter of this year, the inflation rate rose slightly, and the labor market remained tight, prompting the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish stance. Before the FOMC decision is announced, the US will release the May CPI, which is expected to rise 0.1% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year. These data often affect the foreign exchange market.

Patrick Locke, a forex strategist at JPMorgan Securities in New York, said: 'If Powell agrees, Wednesday is a real opportunity for the dollar to continue its recent gains. There are reasons to expect that CPI and the FOMC will tend to be bullish/hawkish on the dollar.' He added that the dollar's performance is often better around meetings with point matrices than those without them.

Edward Meir, an analyst at Marex, said that the market is nervous about the Wednesday Fed meeting, as if there is no improvement in inflation data, the Fed will not issue a signal of 'cut interest rates soon', which means that the US dollar and US interest rates will rise, which is unfavorable for gold.

Short-term technical outlook for gold

Bednarik said that the daily chart of gold shows that the bears still dominate the situation. The momentum indicator rebounds within the negative level, but below the midpoint; while the relative strength index (RSI) is recovering from a downtrend and is around 44. At the same time, gold is traded below its 20-day simple moving average (SMA), while the longer-term moving average remains sloping upwards well below the current gold price.

Bednarik added that in the short term, based on the 4-hour chart, the technical support gold price continues to extend down. The firmly bearish 20-period SMA restricts the rebound of gold price, while the moving average extends its downtrend to below the 100-period SMA and 200-period SMA. Finally, the technical indicators are gaining downward traction between the negative levels, but not strongly enough to suggest that the gold price will break through the recent low point.

(Spot gold 4-hour chart source: FXStreet)

Bednarik gave the latest important support and resistance levels for the gold price:

Support: $2,300.00/oz; $2,286.60/oz; $2,272.90/oz

Resistance: $2,315.50/oz; $2,328.40/oz; $2,342.35/oz

At 11:13 Beijing time, spot gold reported $2314.58/ounce.

The translation is provided by third-party software.

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