Source: Caixin.
In May, the year-on-year increase in the national population's consumption price was 0.3%; in May, the year-on-year decrease in the national industrial producer's factory price was 1.4%, and the month-on-month increase was 0.2%. Official interpretation: overall stability in CPI and narrowing of PPI decline in May 2024.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in May, the year-on-year increase in the national population's consumption price was 0.3%. Among them, the urban area increased by 0.3%, and the rural area increased by 0.4%; food prices fell by 2.0%, non-food prices rose by 0.8%; consumer prices remained stable and service prices rose by 0.8%. From January to May, the national population's consumption price rose by 0.1% compared to the same period last year. In May, the national population's consumption price fell by 0.1% month-on-month. Among them, the urban area fell by 0.1%, and the rural area fell by 0.1%; food prices remained stable, non-food prices fell by 0.2%; consumer prices fell by 0.1%, and service prices fell by 0.1%.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in May, the industrial producer price of the country fell by 1.4% year-on-year, narrowing 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, and rose 0.2% month-on-month, compared to a 0.2% decline in the previous month. The industrial producer purchase price fell by 1.7% year-on-year, up 0.3% month-on-month. From January to May, the industrial producer price was down 2.4% compared with the same period last year, and the industrial producer purchase price was down 3.0%.
Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, interpreted the CPI and PPI data for May 2024.
In May 2024, the year-on-year increase in the population's consumption price was 0.3%.
In May 2024, the year-on-year increase in the national population's consumption price was 0.3%. Among them, the urban area increased by 0.3%, and the rural area increased by 0.4%; food prices fell by 2.0%, non-food prices rose by 0.8%; consumer prices remained stable and service prices rose by 0.8%. From January to May, the national population's consumption price rose by 0.1% compared to the same period last year.
In May, the national population's consumption price fell by 0.1% month-on-month. Among them, the urban area fell by 0.1%, and the rural area fell by 0.1%; food prices remained stable, non-food prices fell by 0.2%; consumer prices fell by 0.1%, and service prices fell by 0.1%.
1. Changes in the prices of various commodities and services year-on-year
In May, the prices of food, tobacco, and alcohol fell by 1.0% year-on-year, affecting the CPI (Consumer Price Index) to decrease by about 0.28 percentage points. Among food, egg prices fell by 7.4%, affecting CPI to decrease by about 0.05 percentage points; fresh fruit prices fell by 6.7%, affecting CPI to decrease by about 0.15 percentage points; The price of livestock and poultry meat fell by 2.2%, affecting CPI to decrease by about 0.07 percentage points, of which pork prices rose by 4.6%, affecting CPI to rise by about 0.05 percentage points; fresh vegetable prices rose by 2.3%, affecting CPI to rise by about 0.05 percentage points; grain prices rose by 0.5%, affecting CPI to rise by about 0.01 percentage points.
The other seven categories of prices increased year-on-year except for one. Of these, prices for other goods and services, education, culture, and entertainment increased by 3.6%, 1.7%, and 1.6%, respectively; prices for medical care, household goods and services, and housing increased by 1.5%, 0.8%, and 0.2%, respectively; and transportation and communication prices decreased by 0.2%.
2. Changes in the prices of various commodities and services month-on-month
In May, the prices of food, tobacco, and alcohol remained unchanged month-on-month. Among food, fresh vegetable prices fell by 2.5%, affecting CPI to decrease by about 0.05 percentage points; the price of livestock and poultry meat fell by 0.4%, affecting CPI to decrease by about 0.01 percentage points, of which pork prices rose by 1.1%, affecting CPI to rise by about 0.01 percentage points; fresh fruit prices rose by 3.0%, affecting CPI to rise by about 0.06 percentage points; egg prices rose by 2.2%, affecting CPI to rise by about 0.01 percentage points.
The other seven categories of prices rose, were unchanged, or fell month-on-month. Among them, prices for clothing and other goods and services rose by 0.4% and 0.1%, respectively; medical care prices remained stable; prices for transportation and communication and household goods and services fell by 0.8% and 0.7%, respectively; prices for housing and education, culture, and entertainment both fell by 0.1%.
In May 2024, the decline in the year-on-year producer price of industrial production narrowed significantly, and rose month-on-month.
In May 2024, the national industrial producer's ex-factory prices decreased by 1.4% compared with the same period of last year, with a decrease of 1.1 percentage points less than last month, and increased by 0.2% on a month-on-month basis. Last month it was a decrease of 0.2%. Industrial producer's purchasing price decreased by 1.7% compared with the same period of last year, an increase of 0.3% on a month-on-month basis. From January to May, the industrial producer's ex-factory prices decreased by 2.4% compared to the same period last year, and the industrial producer's purchasing price decreased by 3.0%.
1. Changes in industrial producer prices year-on-year in May
In the producer price of industrial production, the price of production materials decreased by 1.6%, affecting the total level of industrial producer prices to decrease by about 1.21 percentage points. Among them, the price of mining industry decreased by 1.2%, the price of raw material industry rose by 0.5%, and the price of processing industry fell by 2.6%. The price of consumer goods fell by 0.8%, affecting the total level of industrial producer prices to decrease by about 0.21 percentage points. Among them, food prices fell by 0.7%, clothing prices rose by 0.4%, general daily goods prices remained stable, and durable consumer goods prices fell by 1.8%.
In the producer acquisition price of industrial production, the price of building materials and non-metallic materials decreased by 8.4%, the price of agricultural and sideline products decreased by 4.6%, the price of ferrous metal materials decreased by 3.1%, and the price of chemical raw materials decreased by 2.9%. Fuel and power prices fell by 2.1%; non-ferrous metals and wire prices rose by 8.1%, and textile raw material prices rose by 0.3%.
2. Changes in industrial producer prices month-on-month in May
In the producer price of industrial production, the price of production materials rose by 0.4%, affecting the total level of industrial producer prices to rise by about 0.28 percentage points. Among them, the price of mining industry rose by 0.2%, the price of raw material industry rose by 0.9%, and the price of processing industry rose by 0.1%. The price of consumer goods fell by 0.1%, affecting the total level of industrial producer prices to decrease by about 0.04 percentage points. Among them, food prices fell by 0.2%, clothing prices rose by 0.1%, general daily goods prices remained stable, and durable consumer goods prices fell by 0.3%.
Among the producer purchase prices, prices for nonferrous metal materials and wire products rose by 3.6%, and prices for fuel and power products and black metal materials increased by 0.2%. Chemical raw material prices increased by 0.1%, while building materials and non-metallic prices fell by 0.5%, agricultural and sideline product prices fell by 0.4%, and textile raw material prices fell by 0.1%.
Overall, the CPI was stable in May 2024 with PPI declines narrowing. Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the urban department of the National Bureau of Statistics, interpreted the CPI and PPI data for May 2024.
Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the urban department of the National Bureau of Statistics, interpreted the CPI and PPI data for May 2024.
The National Bureau of Statistics released the national CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Producer Price Index) data for May 2024. Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the urban department of the National Bureau of Statistics, provided an interpretation of the data.
1. CPI somewhat decreases sequentially, while year-on-year growth rate is the same as the previous month
In May, the overall operation of the consumer market was stable, with a slight seasonal decrease in the national CPI compared to the previous month and the same year-on-year growth rate. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.6% year-on-year, continuing a moderate increase.
From a sequential standpoint, CPI saw a slight decrease of 0.1%, which is smaller than the average decrease of 0.2% over the same period in the past decade. Among them, food prices changed from a decrease of 1.0% in the previous month to a flat rate. In food items, due to factors such as the heavy rain in southern China, the decreasing egg production rate in summer and the cut in pig production capacity, the prices of fresh fruits, eggs, and pork increased by 3.0%, 2.7%, and 1.1% respectively. The market supply was relatively sufficient, with prices of shrimp and crab, beef, and fresh vegetables decreasing by 4.3%, 3.6%, and 2.5%, respectively.
Non-food prices changed from an increase of 0.3% in the previous month to a decrease of 0.2%, affecting a sequential CPI decrease of approximately 0.14 percentage points. Among non-food items, seasonal cooling in travel demand occurs after the Labor Day holiday, resulting in a decrease of 9.4%, 7.9%, and 2.7% in airfare, vehicle rental fees, and long-distance bus prices, respectively. Affected by changes in international oil prices, domestic gasoline prices decreased by 0.8%. As summer clothing becomes available, clothing prices rose by 0.4%.
From a year-on-year viewpoint, CPI rose by 0.3%, maintaining the same growth rate as the previous month. Among them, food prices decreased by 2.0%, which is 0.7 percentage points smaller than the decrease in the previous month, affecting a year-on-year CPI decrease of approximately 0.37 percentage points. In food items, the prices of pork, freshwater fish, and fresh vegetables increased by 4.6%, 3.3%, and 2.3%, respectively, with increasing rates. Egg, fresh fruit, and edible oil prices decreased by 8.5%, 6.7%, and 5.1%, respectively, with narrower cut levels. The prices of beef, mutton, and poultry fell by 12.9%, 7.5%, and 2.9%, with decreasing rates continuing to expand. Non-food prices rose by 0.8%, with increasing rates decreasing by 0.1 percentage point compared to the previous month and affecting a year-on-year CPI increase of approximately 0.68 percentage points.
Among non-food items, energy prices rose by 3.4%, with increasing rates decreasing by 0.2 percentage points, and energy-excluded industrial consumer goods prices rose by 0.1%, with increasing rates decreasing by 0.3 percentage points. Among them, prices of new energy vehicles and fuel vehicles dropped by 6.9% and 5.2%, respectively, and lithium-ion battery manufacturing prices and prices of new energy vehicles fell by 0.5% and 0.2%, respectively. Service prices increased by 0.8%, with the same increasing rates as the previous month. Among them, household and educational service prices increased by 1.8%, with slightly expanding rates.
According to statistics, the CPI's year-on-year variation was 0.3% in May, with an estimated standard deviation of 0, and the newly introduced price shift in 2024 made up approximately 0.3 percentage points of the price change.
2. PPI changed from a sequential decrease to an increase, with a narrowing of the year-on-year decrease
In May, the national PPI changed from a decrease to an increase sequentially, with a narrowing of the year-on-year decrease, influenced by the upward trend of some international commodity prices and improving supply and demand in the domestic industrial product market.
From a sequential perspective, PPI changed from a decrease of 0.2% in the previous month to an increase of 0.2%, reversing the downward trend of the previous six months. Among them, the prices of production materials rose by 0.4%, up from a decrease of 0.2% in the previous month. Daily necessities decreased by 0.1%, with the same decline rate as the previous month. The prices of domestic nonferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry rose by 3.9%, influenced by the upward trend of international nonferrous metals prices, with copper smelting, aluminum smelting, and gold smelting prices rising by 7.0%, 3.4%, and 2.8% respectively. With tight supply in major coal-producing areas, demand for stocking increased during the summer peak season, resulting in a 0.5% increase in coal mining and washing industry prices.
With large-scale equipment updates and policies taking effect, the steel market is expected to improve, with black metal smelting and rolling processing industry prices rising by 0.8%. The decline in international oil prices affected the prices of oil and gas extraction industry, which fell by 2.1%. Building material prices continued to decline, with the prices of glass and cement manufacturing falling by 1.2% and 0.8%, respectively. In the equipment manufacturing industry, the prices of electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing and computer manufacturing rose by 0.7% and 0.1%, respectively. Lithium-ion battery manufacturing and new energy vehicle manufacturing prices fell by 0.5% and 0.2%, respectively, while prices of agricultural and sideline food processing industry decreased by 0.5%.
Compared with the same period last year, PPI declined by 1.4%, with a decrease of 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous month. Among them, the prices of production materials decreased by 1.6%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points; the prices of consumer goods decreased by 0.8%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point. In major industries, coal mining and washing industry prices fell by 9.0%, non-ferrous metal mineral products industry prices fell by 8.8%, black metal smelting and rolling processing industry prices fell by 3.7%, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry prices fell by 3.4%, agricultural and sideline food processing industry prices fell by 3.4%, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry prices fell by 3.0%, computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry prices fell by 1.9%, with a narrowing decline.
The automobile manufacturing industry's prices decreased by 2.0%, the same decline as last month; the prices of petroleum, coal, and other fuel processing industries increased from a decrease of 1.0% last month to an increase of 3.4%; the prices of oil and gas extraction industries increased by 9.4%, the same increase as last month; the prices of non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries increased by 8.9%, with an increasing range of 5.3 percentage points.
According to calculations, in May's year-on-year change in PPI of -1.4%, the tail effect is about -0.9 percentage points, and the new impact of price changes this year is about -0.5 percentage points.
Editor/tolk