To find a multi-bagger stock, what are the underlying trends we should look for in a business? Ideally, a business will show two trends; firstly a growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and secondly, an increasing amount of capital employed. Put simply, these types of businesses are compounding machines, meaning they are continually reinvesting their earnings at ever-higher rates of return. However, after briefly looking over the numbers, we don't think LCI Industries (NYSE:LCII) has the makings of a multi-bagger going forward, but let's have a look at why that may be.
What Is Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)?
If you haven't worked with ROCE before, it measures the 'return' (pre-tax profit) a company generates from capital employed in its business. Analysts use this formula to calculate it for LCI Industries:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.063 = US$161m ÷ (US$3.0b - US$409m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2024).
Thus, LCI Industries has an ROCE of 6.3%. Ultimately, that's a low return and it under-performs the Auto Components industry average of 12%.
In the above chart we have measured LCI Industries' prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you'd like, you can check out the forecasts from the analysts covering LCI Industries for free.
What Can We Tell From LCI Industries' ROCE Trend?
On the surface, the trend of ROCE at LCI Industries doesn't inspire confidence. Around five years ago the returns on capital were 17%, but since then they've fallen to 6.3%. Given the business is employing more capital while revenue has slipped, this is a bit concerning. This could mean that the business is losing its competitive advantage or market share, because while more money is being put into ventures, it's actually producing a lower return - "less bang for their buck" per se.
The Key Takeaway
We're a bit apprehensive about LCI Industries because despite more capital being deployed in the business, returns on that capital and sales have both fallen. Investors must expect better things on the horizon though because the stock has risen 32% in the last five years. Regardless, we don't like the trends as they are and if they persist, we think you might find better investments elsewhere.
Like most companies, LCI Industries does come with some risks, and we've found 3 warning signs that you should be aware of.
While LCI Industries isn't earning the highest return, check out this free list of companies that are earning high returns on equity with solid balance sheets.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.