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如何渡过投资困境?这是一个交易员的心得

How to overcome investment difficulties? This is the experience of a trader.

期樂會 ·  Jun 11 22:21

1.

Without experiencing that kind of fear, correct instincts cannot be formed. As a trader, I have formed correct instincts, which is like what is said in "The Gift of the Ghost": when the traffic light is green, but would you still cross the road without checking for cars? Or that sentence "Trading is the horseshoe, go do it, don't look at it too much".

This sentence is really interesting, and the author's meaning is also puzzling. But we can come back to discuss this sentence later.

I don't want to remember those things in the past, although sometimes I am proud to talk about it with the closest people, and I am moved by the fact that I can survive in that situation.

But it is indeed an unforgettable day. Friends who trade can easily understand the instability of profitability (even catastrophic losses) makes everything around you fragile, and we actually live in another world. What we see of other people's lives is just separated by a layer of glass, which is always irrelevant to us.

We must establish new life philosophy, new friend philosophy, new love philosophy, and new trading philosophy.

However, when we first entered the market, the education we received was not only useless, but sometimes also harmful. The influence of social traditional cognition that surrounds us, including intangible collective thinking, many people believe in historical determinism and talk about "inevitability" and "historical inevitability".

Looking back, as a person who has experienced the event, he can see that history has happened in such a clear and organized manner. But if he has to make a decision before history, can he become a great person like Buffett Soros who has experienced countless storms and continue to succeed? These are all confusing words. Perhaps many traders begin to understand these things when they have been on the market for a long time.

Many stock investors in trading halls like to listen to opinions that are the same as theirs. On the contrary, I think that pointing out problems is always more valuable than singing praises, unless a person is born vain, but those who are born vain are easily stagnant.

As Soros said, he doesn't care how many people oppose his views. If he is correct, the more people who oppose him, the more money he may earn. Trading is not a matter of the majority deciding the fate of the minority (1966), but depends on a person's judgment ability on complex matters and correct instincts.

2.

It is incorrect for a person to rely on instincts and innate operations when trading in the market. To understand this, reading books alone is not enough. I have read many books since I graduated, including trading, history, economic history, philosophy, complexity science, and chaos.

I always feel that only two books are truly helpful for a trader, and the authors are foreigners. This is not surprising. Westerners have had financial market speculation since the Dutch tulip era.

I talked so much about books, not off-topic. For me, every time I mention the most difficult days, I think of books because I have nothing but books and basketball. Basketball helps me get rid of the free radicals generated by tension, and helps me regain my mind on the days I lack fighting spirit. Books are the only hope for me to find the door in the dark world.

For a novice, there are too many unfavorable things: the impact of his thinking tradition, the wrong understanding of uncertainty. This reminds me of a conclusion: for complex things, understanding that there is no "unique solution" is more important than finding a suitable "solution". Historical determinism fails in this sense. It is obstinate and makes precise predictions, but it neglects the scale of time and the continuity of the process. Therefore, historical determinism is actually no different from astrology. It is undoubtedly useless for trading. When opening bubble drama channels or the political textbooks we used to study, the expression of historical determinism is everywhere.

There are many such books about understanding uncertainty, many of which are valuable. Nassim Taleb's series of books can be used as an introductory reading material, which also includes many criticisms of historical determinism and endorsement of Popper's philosophy.

In the dark world of early trading, huge losses, mental depression, social isolation, emotional failure, debt, and fear of the future filled the lives of traders.

Without knowledge, books, trusted friends, like-minded partners, what else can we rely on? It's like exploring a new land, where everything needs to be rebuilt, away from familiar living habits, familiar friends, familiar ways of thinking, everything must be replaced with new knowledge before traders can learn to survive.

3.

In the process of exploration, how can traders ensure that their spirits will be revived in the case of repeated mental blows? Looking back, I can't remember and don't want to reminisce. It is often too painful, like the feeling of Will Smith taking his son to spend the night in the subway toilet or losing a shoe and having $10 taken away by his boss in "The Pursuit of Happyness".

When I recall these things, I feel that there are some simple and honest people in trading who need the knowledge and help of experienced people. They are as painful as I was at first. So I decided to write these things down.

I know that many traders have a habit of sports, which is good. The sports spirit is an important thing for trading, fair competition, respect for opponents, understanding of opponents, emphasis on rules, learning, and progress.

I'm afraid that people who lack sports spirit will not have the opportunity to do well in trading. The lack of sports spirit is manifested in: frequent playing tricks, lack of sports ethics, disrupting the atmosphere of fair competition, hostility to opponents, and refusal to admit failure, etc. With these behaviors, it is impossible to truly discover problems in trading, so there is no need to think about learning and progress. Therefore, I strongly recommend that traders find some sports, preferably more intense sports. In addition, knowledge of game theory is also useful in trading and sports competitions.

Those who lack sports spirit in sports activities, I help you save time and energy, and advise you to give up the plan of trading. Trading is more suitable for those who do not place too much emphasis on gains and losses, but rather on whether they themselves have made progress. It is impossible to objectively look at failure for the sake of small profits, and it is impossible to make progress. Therefore, the dark world in trading is the door to our success. We may never get out, but without experiencing the dark world, we will never find the door, right? We have at least challenged things that many people dare not or cannot challenge. As a trader, I think this is a kind of courage. Although we have all kinds of reasons for going this way in the past, we have taken this step, which is a kind of courage.

Look at James' performance in 16Finals G6 Q4! He used screens to attack and change defenses to score for Barbosa, used screens to break through when Curry was unwilling to switch defenses, correctly predicted Green's reaction, and passed to TT for an alley-oop score, used screens against Curry, who was facing his 5th foul, and seized the opportunity when Green left TT again to assist TT, and called a screen to assist JR in hitting a three-pointer when Clay Thompson was shrinking inward. James' understanding of screen attacks has reached an unprecedented level in history. All of this is based on his understanding of the screen, his own and his opponent's strengths and weaknesses, and changes in opponent strategies caused by past events. At that moment, his control on the court was as wonderful as Rommel's command on the North African battlefield.

All of this is based on his understanding of the screen, his own and his opponent's strengths and weaknesses, and changes in opponent strategies caused by past events. At that moment, his control on the court was as wonderful as Rommel's command on the North African battlefield.

The same content can be found in trading. Each trading system has its own weaknesses and strengths, and each market trend is the result of specific trading methods that lead to success or failure for traders. So the market evolves based on past information, and traders make decisions based on the market's evolution.

For those who lack sports spirit in sports activities, I help you save time and energy, and advise you to give up the plan of trading. Trading is more suitable for those who do not place too much emphasis on gains and losses, but rather on whether they themselves have made progress. It is impossible to objectively look at failure for the sake of small profits, and it is impossible to make progress.

Therefore, the dark world in trading is the door to our success. We may never get out, but without experiencing the dark world, we will never find the door, right? We have at least challenged things that many people dare not or cannot challenge. As a trader, I think this is a kind of courage. Although we have all kinds of reasons for going this way in the past, we have taken this step, which is a kind of courage. Without the spirit of exploration, there would be no civilization.

Talented traders may have found a way out of the dark world and tried step by step. In this world, everyone is covered in cuts and bruises, and the pain we bear at this moment is understood by everyone. An unexpected piece of news can plunge a family into tragedy, and a wrong decision can completely change a person's life. But after mastering trading, we will also gain additional benefits. This is the reason why we persevere.

4.

A true friend is also essential. Everyone has a time when their emotions and spirits are lonely. At this time, traders need a friend who truly cares for them from their perspective. Not the kind of friend who only shows off their temporary success or enjoys the misfortune of those who dare to take risks. To put it bluntly, a straightforward and understanding friend. Trading is a lonely exploration, and we also need the kind of focus needed to participate in hurdling races.

Focus on whether you are doing better, not on how others are leading now - although it is a bit idealistic, it is easy to fall if we do not do this. I am very lucky to have a girlfriend who firmly supports me during this process. She has the tough grassroots colors and has taught me to live frugally and plan. So when I was at my lowest point, she never sarcastically, ridiculed, or did anything else to hurt me.

In my eyes, she is the most beautiful. I also have a 7-year classmate who pursued stability and went to a state-owned enterprise, but we fulfilled our obligations as friends. When he helped me, he didn't expect any return. When I was upset, he didn't make me feel envious of everything through glass. After my situation improved, I rarely mentioned anything about trading. I hope we can run our own hurdling race, enjoy our own lives, and pursue the meaning of our own lives.

The process of learning and exploration is extremely painful, especially for those who do not have a strong financial background. Persisting to the end requires extremely strong mental toughness. We need to learn to be like hurdles races, not paying attention to the performances of others, but more to whether we have done the right things.

Many of us cannot follow the same life path as our peers. When others are stable, we may even worry about eating. Even the great Soros has experienced all this. Finally, I want to emphasize that knowledge is the key to getting out of the dark world. Strong mental toughness only helps you persevere longer. Without knowledge and progress, the spirit will eventually collapse.

After numerous reviews and reflections, as well as statistics on past trades, the cause of losses was finally found to be some technical details, and many of these details were addressed one by one until all were correct. And I finally understood the characteristics of trend. Before, I only knew the volatility of the trend, but now I know that the extension of trend is the first. Before, the approach was to constantly test the market and occasionally find a big trend to profit. The current approach is to add positions in the large trend segment, which goes directly from continuous losses to overall profits.

Only then did he step into the door of wealth.

Attached: On the meaning of horseshoes in "The Phantom Gift", the original text (roughly translated) is: My brother and I walked into a blacksmith's shop and saw a blacksmith holding a freshly quenched horseshoe, throwing it on the table. My brother immediately picked it up and then threw it on the ground. The blacksmith said, "Too hot, isn't it?" My brother replied, "I didn't even take a second look at that horseshoe."

This incident gave me more inspiration about trading than anything else. Trading is like that horseshoe: go and act, don't take a second look. This is how I understand it: for the horseshoe, the correct approach is to estimate its heat and avoid touching it if it's hot. But the author's brother tried to touch it, but immediately threw it away when he found it was hot (correct instinct).

In trading, the correct behavior on picking up the horseshoe becomes wrong, and vice versa. We always assume how the market will behave, but once we buy in, we are reluctant to give up because of the temptation of profit. If we think the market will rise, we will buy, otherwise we will ignore it. But this way of behavior is wrong, because no one can give an accurate prediction.

The right behavior to strive for is like the author's brother, buy in, but find oneself hurt, and immediately leave (correct instinct). In trading, our instinct is no longer useful because we linger on the value of the underlying asset. Because even if it's a golden horseshoe, if it's too hot, it should be thrown away (stop loss).

Edited by Jeffrey

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
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