①During the 'Little Prosperous Season' of the Dragon Boat Festival, the wholesale price of Maotai liquor did not increase but fell, approaching the cost line of some intermediate distributors' stockpiling, leading to a sharp drop in its stock price; ② From May 23 to June 7, northbound funds reduced their holdings of Maotai by nearly 3 million shares, and today net sold Maotai for 2.677 billion yuan; ③Industry experts believe that the development of Maotai carries the expectations of all parties and can't afford to lose; the relevant parties have assigned Zhang Deqin to take on key tasks at critical moments.
Before and after the Dragon Boat Festival 'small peak season', the price of Moutai liquor has not risen but fallen, approaching the inventory cost line of some intermediate distributors.
Today is the first trading day after the Dragon Boat Festival. The stock price of Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH) continued to fall after the opening, and the closing price fell by 3.1%, evaporating a market value of over 60 billion yuan.
(Maotai Chairman Zhang Deqin speaks at the 2023 Annual Shareholders Meeting, Finance Associated Press reporter Zhu Wanping)
Regarding today's stock price fluctuations, Kweichow Moutai told Finance Associated Press reporters who consulted as investors that the company has noticed the fluctuations in the stock price, and its production and operation are currently normal. In response to the continued decline in the bulk price of Moutai liquor, the company said it will "pay close attention" and stated that the recent sales situation is normal.
Since the high point on May 7th, the stock price of Kweichow Moutai has fallen from about 1777 yuan/share to the current 1569 yuan/share, a cumulative decline of more than 10%. Who is selling Kweichow Moutai behind the stock price decline?
From the perspective of northbound funds, on May 23, the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect held 92.46 million shares of Kweichow Moutai as the recent high point, which fell to 89.52 million shares on June 7, a decrease of nearly 3 million shares, or more than 3%. Today, northbound funds continued to net sell Kweichow Moutai by 2.677 billion yuan.
Looking at the market sales situation again, the decline in the bulk price of Moutai liquor is considered one of the reasons for the decline in Kweichow Moutai today. Huaxin Securities' internal tracking data shows that as of today, the reference wholesale price for Moutai liquor (bulk) 53 degrees/500ml has fallen below 2,500 yuan/bottle (which some Moutai liquor merchants regard as an important reference line for profit and loss), reporting at 2,445 yuan/bottle, a decrease of 15 yuan/bottle from the previous day and a decrease of about 245 yuan/bottle from the beginning of the year.
Normally, the Dragon Boat Festival is one of the four traditional festivals in China and also a traditional 'small peak season' for liquor. However, the price of Moutai liquor has not risen but fallen and hit a new low this year, which undoubtedly raises market concerns. 'Recently, Moutai liquor has indeed been falling in price, and it is difficult to sell the inventory,' said a Moutai liquor intermediate distributor to Finance Associated Press reporters today. Currently, the supply price of the higher-level wholesalers is around 2445 yuan/bottle, while his selling price is 2500 yuan/bottle.
Due to continuous price declines, some Moutai liquor merchants have suspended the purchase of all Moutai products, and even if they do purchase them, the prices are relatively low. 'We have stopped buying liquor temporarily. There is a lot of inventory now, and the price is not very stable,' said the aforementioned Moutai liquor intermediate distributor to Finance Associated Press reporters. Some Moutai liquor intermediaries still say they are collecting Moutai liquor, but the purchase price is only 2,360 yuan/bottle.
(A Moutai dealer store Finance Associated Press reporter Zhu Wanping)
Compared with the fact that the quoted price for Moutai intermediaries has dropped to as low as 2445 yuan/bottle, the price of Moutai liquor in some offline tobacco and liquor stores is still much higher. 'Today, the price of Moutai liquor (bulk) is 2620 yuan/bottle, which is not much different from before the Dragon Boat Festival,' a tobacco and liquor store employee in Chengdu told Finance Associated Press reporters. However, the selling price of Moutai liquor has indeed dropped several hundred yuan since this year.
Will the price of Moutai liquor continue to fall? Regarding this, Moutai liquor merchants generally say, 'It's unclear' and 'hard to say.' Besides the impact on the demand side, another important influencing factor comes from the supply side.
Currently, some provincial Moutai self-operated stores have temporarily suspended the "enterprise customer subscription of 1499 yuan Moutai liquor", and the exercise of the "Xunfeng liquor" digital collection will also be suspended on June 19 (the valid number certificates that have been synthesized are not affected) - Both of these initiatives are considered to have a certain impact on the supply side of Moutai liquor.
However, according to external observations, Moutai has not yet issued a 'groundbreaking' major policy for the market. Against the backdrop of pressure on market demand, the trend of the Moutai liquor bulk price in the future is still uncertain."It is not ruled out that it may fall below 2300 yuan/bottle,' said a Moutai intermediate distributor to Finance Associated Press reporters.
According to previous analysis by Tianfeng Securities, the cost of Moutai liquor investment and hoarding in recent years has been around 2300 yuan-2400 yuan/bottle. As long as the bulk price is not lower than the above hoarding cost line, there is no need to worry about massive dumping of goods. If panic selling occurs, what other means does Moutai have?
Regarding this, marketing expert Xiao Zhuqing in the Baijiu industry believes that at that time, Moutai may mobilize traditional distributors to buy back low-priced Moutai liquor with cash and raise the transaction price of Moutai liquor in the market. 'Moutai's development carries expectations and pressures from all aspects. Moutai can afford to win, but it can't afford to lose. The appointment of Zhang Deqin as the chairman of Moutai may be because Zhang Deqin has the mobilization ability of Moutai's old staff and Moutai's old liquor distributors to take on key tasks at critical moments,' said Xiao Zhuqing.
Now, the bulk price of Moutai liquor has fallen to 2445 yuan/bottle. Is Zhang Deqin's critical moment coming? Can Moutai withstand the pressure?
It is worth mentioning that before and after the Qingming Festival this year, influenced by the rumor that Moutai's subsidiary, Xunfeng Liquor (belonging to the Moutai liquor category), has increased production and consumer demand, the bid price of Moutai liquor also fell to a low of 2,500 yuan per bottle at one point. At that time, Guizhou Moutai clarified that the Xunfeng liquor production plan accounts for a small proportion of Moutai's annual product output, and is not expected to have a significant impact on the Moutai liquor price system. On the other hand, they implemented a more flexible product delivery strategy, adjusting the shipment volume and pace. Subsequently, the price of Moutai liquor also rebounded to around 2,650 yuan per bottle.