Global macro
Before the opening on Tuesday, the three major futures indexes collectively declined.
"New Fed News Agency" Pre-sound: The latest "dot plot" will become a new game-changer in the market.
The Federal Reserve will announce the latest interest rate decision this week, as well as update quarterly economic forecasts, including the interest rate forecast known as the "dot plot". Nick Timiraos, a famous reporter known as the "New Fed News Agency", wrote on Tuesday that investors are closely watching whether Fed officials will cut interest rates once or twice this year, but for policymakers, the discussion of whether and when to cut interest rates is a future issue, not a current one. Because there are no major policy changes expected at this week's meeting, the focus of the meeting will be on the new quarterly interest rate forecast, the so-called "dot plot".
What signal? Goldman Sachs: Chip stocks are no longer favored, and hedge funds are starting to buy software stocks!
Data from Goldman Sachs' bulk brokerage division shows that fund managers have been net sellers of US technology stocks for three consecutive weeks. Among them, semiconductor and semiconductor equipment stocks nominally sold the most in the week ending June 7, while software stocks were the most net buyers. This is the opposite of the trading strategy in the previous week. However, at the end of May, chip stocks were still the darling of hedge funds, while software stocks faced a fate of being sold off.
Will oil prices have a hot third quarter? Goldman Sachs, which tore up the report over the weekend, gave a new estimate of $86.
Due to the peak season of travel and energy demand for cooling in hot weather, global oil prices are expected to rise again this summer, according to a series of recent reports from Wall Street. Daan Struyven, head of Goldman Sachs' oil research, predicted in Sunday's latest report that Brent crude oil prices will rise to $86 per barrel in the third quarter of this year, up nearly 7% from current levels.
Academic economists predict that the Federal Reserve will only cut interest rates once this year!
A recent survey of academic economists by foreign media showed that the Fed may only cut interest rates once this year, as stubborn inflation will force it to adjust its "rate-cut schedule". More than half of the 39 scholars who participated in the survey said that the Fed would only cut interest rates by 25 basis points this year. Nearly a quarter of them expect the Fed to not cut interest rates this year at all. The survey was conducted in the last week of May, and the Fed will announce the interest rate decision this Thursday. Respondents expect the rate setters to revise their forecast for this year's interest rate cuts from three to two or less.
Hot news
Most growth of growth tech fell before the market opened.
Bitcoin fell below $67,000, and stocks in the digital currency sector fell before the market opened.
US stocks in the blockchain technology sector fell before the market opened,$Marathon Digital (MARA.US)$fell more than 4%,$Coinbase (COIN.US)$, $MicroStrategy (MSTR.US)$fell nearly 4%,$CleanSpark (CLSK.US)$fell more than 3%. On the news front, the cryptocurrency fell, with bitcoin falling below $67,000 per coin and ethereum falling below $3,600 per coin.
Musk's salary showdown is imminent: if the plan is rejected, Tesla will "plunge 5%"?
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$Shareholders will review CEO Elon Musk's 2018 compensation plan at the annual meeting to be held on Thursday. If shareholders reject the compensation plan, Tesla's stock price could drop significantly. The options market shows that the price of put options on Tesla is higher than that of call options, indicating that the market is more concerned about a decline than hopeful for an increase. Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi estimated on Monday that if shareholders voted down the plan, Tesla's stock would fall 5%.
Apple has finally released its AI skills, but Wall Street remains indifferent: there aren't too many surprises.
On Monday, Eastern Time,$Apple (AAPL.US)$at the WWDC 2024 conference, the long-awaited AI strategy was announced. Cook and other executives spent nearly two hours introducing the new "Apple Intelligence" technology and how Apple integrates AI into a range of applications, including Siri, and introduces OpenAI's chatbot ChatGPT into its devices. However, the attitudes of more Wall Street analysts tended to be lukewarm, as they believed that the new AI features were unlikely to boost iPhone sales in the short term.
Guo Mingchi: Apple Intelligence is very useful for users, but just icing on the cake for investors.
Well-known analyst Guo Mingchi released a brief comment on June 11th, saying that$Apple (AAPL.US)$The newly released Apple Intelligence suite demonstrates Apple's ecological integration and interface design advantages, which is very useful for users, but just icing on the cake for investors. Investors are looking forward to seeing original and indispensable features. In addition, investors are also concerned that Apple Intelligence cannot be listed simultaneously worldwide, and whether the key selling point of integrating ChatGPT can be used in all major markets worldwide.
Musk: If Apple integrates OpenAI at the operating system level, he will ban its devices from entering his company.
Musk posted on X, saying that if Apple integrates OpenAI at the operating system level, he will ban its devices from entering his company. Musk said that would be an unacceptable security threat. Musk also said that visitors would be asked to check their Apple devices at the door. Musk added that Apple was not smart enough to develop its own AI, but could ensure that OpenAI would protect your security and privacy, which is obviously absurd. Apple has no idea what will happen to your data after it is handed over to OpenAI, and they are completely selling out users.
Before the opening, Eli Lilly and Co continued to rise more than 2%, and the Alzheimer's drug was recommended by an FDA advisory group.
$Eli Lilly and Co (LLY.US)$Pre-market trading of the US stock market rose more than 2%, reaching $883, and is expected to refresh yesterday's intraday historical high after opening. In terms of news, the independent advisory group of the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) voted 11-0 to conclude that the benefits of Lilly's experimental Alzheimer's drug, donanemab, outweigh the risks, paving the way for the drug to be fully launched in the United States later this year. The product structure of 100-300 billion yuan is represented by operating income of 401/1288/60 million yuan respectively.
Intel is reportedly halting the construction of its $25 billion factory in Israel.
According to the media,$Intel (INTC.US)$they are stopping the plan to invest $25 billion in building a factory in Israel. When asked about the report, Intel said that it needed to adapt the major project to a changing timetable, but did not directly mention the project. Intel said that Israel is still one of the company's important global production and research and development bases. The Israeli government said at the end of last year that Intel would invest $25 billion to build a chip factory in Israel, calling it a "significant move".
General Motors board of directors approves $6 billion share buyback plan.
On June 11th,$General Motors (GM.US)$The company announced that its board of directors has approved a new share buyback authorization, which will repurchase up to $6 billion of the company's outstanding common stock.
Microsoft has outsourced AI research to OpenAI, which may benefit Google.
According to reports, cybersecurity company Okta's CEO Todd McKinnon recently stated that they are outsourcing the development of all their best AI tools and software to OpenAI, which may benefit major competitors.$Okta (OKTA.US)$CEO Todd McKinnon recently stated that $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$they are outsourcing the development of all their best AI tools and software to OpenAI, which may be advantageous to their main competitors.$Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$It's beneficial.
Not to be outdone, after NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun announced the latest AI chip iteration schedule on the evening of June 2nd, AMD CEO Su Zifeng also threw out an iteration roadmap during her speech on the morning of June 3rd before the COMPUTEX opened. The company will launch the MI325 X and Ryzen AI300 this year, the MI350 series in 2025, and the MI400 series in 2026.
China concept stocks are mixed in pre-market trading.
In May, the retail sales of electric vehicles in the market reached 804,000, an increase of 38.5% year-on-year, according to the Federation of Passenger Transport Branches.
According to data released by the China Passenger Car Association on June 11, production of new energy passenger vehicles reached 881,000 units in May, a year-on-year increase of 31.0% and a month-on-month increase of 9.9%. Wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 897,000 units in May, a year-on-year increase of 32.1% and a month-on-month increase of 13.8%. Retail sales of new energy vehicles in May were 804,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 38.5% and a month-on-month increase of 18.7%. Exports of new energy vehicles in May were 94,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 4.0% and a month-on-month decrease of 18.8%.
JiKe rose more than 5% in pre-market trading and announced that it will enter the Southeast Asian market in June.
$ZEEKR (ZK.US)$US stock market rose more than 5% in pre-market trading, reaching $24.9. JiKe recently announced that it will officially sign cooperation agreements with PT Premium Prima in Indonesia and Sentinel Automotive Sdn.Bhs in Malaysia in June 2024, and enter the Indonesian and Malaysian markets. The first models are the right-hand drive JiKe X and JiKe 009.
Bilibili rose more than 3% pre-market trading and was upgraded to "buy" by UBS, which raised its EPS estimate per share.
Reminder for US Macro Events
(All in Peking Time)
Business retail sales annual rate for the week ending on June 8 in the US, as reported in the red book.
Winning rate for one-year treasury bond auction in the US as of June 11 at 23:30.
Monthly short-term energy outlook report released by the EIA at 00:00.
Winning rate for 10-year treasury bond auction in the US as of June 11 at 01:00.
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